Old faces in new places, it happens every year.
There are no quarterbacks that will be making big waves in new places this year, sorry Mike Glennon. Running backs and wide receivers dominate the list, and for good reason. A lot of talent shifted, some will have great value and others will be busts.
Here are the players you need to pay attention to on new teams.
13 Faces in New Places
Latavius Murray, RB, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 112)
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Murray will be trying to fill the Hall of Fame shoes that Adrian Peterson left behind. Spoiler alert, it will not happen. The Vikings’ offensive line is still subpar, Sam Bradford is less threatening than Alex Smith, and Dalvin Cook will be stealing carries all year.
Just because a player is being replaced does not mean their production will. Murray will be nothing more than a low-end flex option. When Cook inevitably takes the starting job, if Cook is not the week one starter, Murray will have little to no value. His ADP resonates that perfectly.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 78)
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For those two people reading who have followed me for the past three years, you will remember my man crush on Eddie Lacy. He had all the talent in the world, and the best opportunity to score in Green Bay.
Weight and injuries sidelined his career, and he looks to rejuvenate himself in the Emerald City. C.J. Prosise and Thomas Rawls will slow down that process, and this will be a running back by committee. Rawls gets injured too much, and Prosise adds value as a patch catcher, so Lacy’s role remains to be seen.
Lacy’s upside comes as a goal line back, stumbling in a la Mike Tolbert’s glory days in San Diego/Carolina. Owners should not expect a lot of touches per game and hope for Lacy to be a goal line vulture. He can be a solid RB2 but will fall into the flex spot as a week to week starter.
Adrian Peterson, RB, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 57)
Peterson to the Saints was the most puzzling, insulting, and just downright awful signings of this offseason. It puzzles me because why would the Saints want to take carries away from Mark Ingram or take passes away from Drew Brees to give Peterson carries?
He is old with very little left in the tank. In a pass heavy offense, Peterson seems like the odd man out. Unless Sean Payton drastically changes the offense to an I-formation, heavy attack defenses will easily key in on Peterson.
Peterson simply doesn’t fit the system and owners will be disappointed if they think Peterson will return to his former glory. That player is long gone.
Danny Woodhead, RB, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 82)
I would not have had Woodhead on this list a week ago, then Kenneth Dixon went down with a season-ending injury.
Woodhead may be old, but he will be a PPR stud. Terrance West, the now assumed starter, will yield a lot of touches to Woodhead on passing downs. As a mid-to-late round pick, Woodhead will be a steal.
Jeremy Maclin will work the chains, and Mike Wallace will stretch the field. Woodhead will work the underneath routes and still give linebackers headaches. Draft him and get a solid flex for the season.
Mike Gillislee, RB, New England Patriots (ADP: 61)
Here is this year’s DeMarco Murray. Gillislee was saddled in Buffalo with being LeSean McCoy’s backup but has averaged 5.6 yards per carry on 154 career attempts. He has value and if anyone is going to find value, Bill Belichick is the man.
Given the Patriots’ system, never focusing on one player consistently and the plethora of running backs, Gillislee will have some bad games. For the season he will be an RB2, Brady and company will give him too many chances for easy yards and touchdowns.
LeGarrette Blount left 18 touchdowns in New England and Gillislee is primed to fill that void. For the second year in a row, Belichick will find a diamond in Buffalo’s trash.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders (ADP: 20)
Lynch will be a bust. His ADP is overvalued because he was once Beast Mode.
He now enters into a young budding team centered around Derek Carr. Lynch will not be the focal point of the offense getting 300 carries, he will have less than 250. Yes, Oakland has one of the best offensive lines in the game and Derek Carr will be returning from injury.
I do know about Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, and Jared Cook keeps defenses out of the box. Running backs have an expiration date and with over 2,100 carries Lynch has reached it.
Not saying that Lynch will have no production, he will hover around 1,000 yards. He just will not be worth a second round pick.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 65)
Blount always could not get out of his own way, his immaturity has taken away from his talent. After 18 touchdowns in just over 1,100 career carries, he could only get a one-year $1.25 million contract with the Eagles.
Now with Ryan Mathews reportedly on his way out, Blount’s main competition for touches will be Darren Sproles. No one will be worrying about Sproles taking goal line touches from Blount.
Blount averages 4 yards per carry wherever he goes and has the deceptive speed to break off long runs. See his touchdown run against the Houston Texans last season.
Owners will receive great value from Blount this season.
Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 95)
Owners should look at Decker’s 2015 season if they are trying to gauge his value on the Titans this season.
Decker will never light up the scoreboard, he is a 1B receiver but he runs great routes and is a reliable target. Quarterback Marcus Mariota will take full advantage of that and feed Decker the ball while rookie Corey Davis adjusts to the NFL.
Having the best duo of running backs in the game will keep defenses honest and allow for Decker to find open spaces. He will never have a huge pure yardage game, but like in 2015 Decker will be a consistent 10 points per week.
Getting that in the middle of the 9th round is a steal.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 103)
Maclin suffered through two seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs offense, and that hurt his stock tremendously. It has been years since he has been relevant due to Alex Smith’s inability to throw touchdown passes to wide receivers.
Now Maclin will be catching passes from Joe Flacco. For those wondering, Flacco is not elite but he will be good enough to make Maclin a relevant fantasy option.
Flacco hurt his back and the Ravens are saying it is not serious but if Flacco goes down in season everyone on the offense loses any value. No one wants Ryan Mallett under center.
Maclin has the potential to once again be a 1,000-yard receiver and owners can safely buy into that in the 10th round.
Brandin Cooks, WR, New England Patriots (ADP: 27)
I have been watching the Patriots for 15 years. Cooks will not be the next Randy Moss, nor will he put up the numbers like he did in New Orleans. Brady has too many targets to grab one in the 2nd round.
Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski, James White, Dion Lewis, Malcolm Mitchell, Chris Hogan, and Dwayne Allen will be fighting with Cooks for catches. Edelman and Gronk will get their targets, and Cooks will need to prove he can learn the offense.
Cooks will need a lot to happen for him to repeat his 2016 stat line of 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns. Cooks may be a YAC machine this year but 800 yards and 7 touchdowns will be what owners will get from him this season.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 31)
Jeffery’s ADP hurts my soul. He does not have the ability to stay healthy and will be in a new offense.
Yes, you can draft him on his hype and what he could be but it is time to look at the cold hard fact. He has played 21 games in the last two seasons, and with Jay Cutler throwing him the ball he never lived up to his billing.
For the record Cutler was never as bad as people thought he was, he was just so painfully average. Now Jeffery moves to the Eagles and Carson Wentz, hoping that he can be the red zone threat the Eagles so desperately need.
His schedule will put him up against the likes of Janoris Jenkins and Josh Norman twice, Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, and the Legion of Boom. Their schedule will be brutal for the passing attack, even if Jeffery can stay healthy he will have plenty of dud games.
Terrelle Pryor Sr, WR, Washington Redskins (ADP: 39)
Pryor left Cleveland for Washington, but a one-year deal makes sense.
He gets to play with a good quarterback in Kirk Cousins and will be the number one guy on the offense. Pryor flashed his potential last year but will need to be a better route runner.
The Redskins lost a lot of production when DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon left, and Pryor will benefit greatly. He will have to compete with Josh Doctson, Jordan Reed, and Jamison Crowder for catches.
Owners need not worry about this, Doctson will be wildly inconsistent and Jordan Reed has trouble staying healthy. Crowder will be a great slot receiver, leaving Pryor as the main man on the outside.
His former coaches think he will have a Pro Bowl level year, as do I. He will be an elite player after his breakout last season.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 85)
If Jamies Winston does not take a huge step forward this year, then he will never be anything better than a good quarterback. The team drafted O.J. Howard, more importantly, they added DeSean Jackson.
Jackson comes into Tampa Bay as the best pure deep ball catcher. At his age, he can still take the top off a defense. He will be a solid flex for the season, but owners need to take note of how Winston plays. He will be a great mid to late round quarterback if Jackson fits into the offense early.
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