Welcome to our very first Daily Fantasy Football article on Week 1 DFS value plays at QB on FanDuel, targeting three value-play quarterbacks with good prices/matchups ahead, and three whose prices cost too much for their matchup.
You’ve been mulling over your FanDuel lineups for a few weeks now, wondering which games you should lean heavily on, and which contests you think you should play them in.
I’m a firm believer in diversifying your lineups – and the contests that you play in. You want to spread yourself far and wide, hoping to mitigate as much risk as possible, while still being able to generate some profit.
If you think the NFL doesn’t really care about Fantasy Football, and specifically, Daily Fantasy Football, then you haven’t really taken a good look at the Week 1 NFL schedule!
There are FOUR games that are expected to go over 50 points in total scores (over/under lines at 50.0 or higher), and that means there will be some big-time Fantasy outputs in the first week of the season.
Some links for you to check out to further help your Daily Fantasy Football lineups:
Doug Anderson created an awesome table that he’s going to post each week that breaks down the “Fantasy Points Allowed by Position.” The best part is – it breaks it down according to the individual scoring rules on several DFS sites, including FanDuel, DraftKings, FantasyAces, Drafster and FanThrowdown.
Last month, I wrote a piece on FanDuel Insider discussing the average benchmarks you have to hit to win different contests on FanDuel, but I expect those numbers to rise (at least) by 10 percent for this Week 1 set of games.
3 DFS Value Plays at QB
We handpicked a threesome for your Daily Fantasy Football pleasure! These quarterbacks are good plays considering their prices and their matchups.
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo vs. Indianapolis ($5,000): Obviously, Taylor was named the starting quarterback after prices were revealed on FanDuel earlier last month. The former Ravens backup can make plays with his feet, and considering LeSean McCoy (hamstring) is hobbled, Taylor might need to make more plays than usual. The Colts defense isn’t that good, whereas Andrew Luck’s offense is going to score enough to force the Bills into throwing a lot in the second half, which also benefits Taylor.
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) August 30, 2015
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay ($6,900): “Famous Jameis,” the No. 1 overall draft pick by the Buccaneers this past spring, faces off against the Titans, and their top pick, Marcus Mariota – the player that beat Winston to make it to the 2015 National Championship game in January. Winston enters the NFL with possibly the best weapons any QB chosen first overall has ever had. He has tons of confidence, facing a mediocre Titans defense that is already missing top CB Jason McCourty. Also, with a bad offensive line, Winston will likely run for 20-30 yards per game, in spite of the fact he’s not a running quarterback. When plays break down, rookie QBs run. That’s a good thing for his DFS owners.
Sam Bradford, Philadelphia at Atlanta ($7,500): For this week only, Chip Kelly’s offense should be called “The Greatest Show on Turf Part II,” as they take aim for a Week 1 win in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome, going up against a Falcons team that ranked 11th in giving up Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Bradford’s knees are healthy enough for him to be handed the keys to the Eagles’ Ferrari, and while he’s missing some key components from last season (Jeremy Maclin, McCoy), he still has some great pass-catching weapons both in the backfield and split wide. This game is has the highest over/under (55.5), and the Eagles are three-point favorites, and they’re expected to score the most points of any team this week (28.5), along with the Cowboys.
A few #Eagles I spoke w/ are really impressed w/ Sam Bradford. Told, "we're seeing why he was a #1 pick. Decisions & release are so quick"
— Britt McHenry (@BrittMcHenry) September 3, 2015
3 QBs to Avoid on FanDuel
This trio of quarterbacks are players you should stay away from for the upcoming weekend of NFL action. Some of these players might be worth a contrarian play in a GPP tournament, but for the most part, they’re players to avoid.
Joe Flacco, Baltimore at Denver ($8,200): This Broncos defense is highly underrated, and I think they’re going to be big in 2015. The fact that new head coach Gary Kubiak is intent on slowing the game down a bit, running more and controlling the clock offensively, the Broncos defense is going to be able to rest and clam down on opponents that will be getting fewer drives. Flacco lost his tight end (in Denver now), and his top wide receiver (in San Francisco now), and his old offensive coordinator (Kubiak) is roaming the opposing sidelines.
Cam Newton, Carolina at Jacksonville ($8,400): Yes, Newton can make plays with his feet, but the Panthers prefer he not run downfield as much. His rushing totals have dropped each year in the NFL, and while the Jaguars defense still isn’t a formidable one, they are improving. Newton lost his top receiver (Kelvin Benjamin) for the season, and he’ll have a converted college tight end (Devin Funchess) leading the way among receivers. Not good – at least for Week 1.
Devin Funchess did not play with or catch a pass from Cam Newton in any of the four exhibitions.
— Jonathan Jones (@jjones9) September 7, 2015
Jay Cutler, Chicago vs. Green Bay ($7,900): Another Fantasy quarterback dealing with a new offensive coordinator, Cutler loses Marc Trestman in exchange with Peyton Manning’s former OC, Adam Gase. In Cutler’s two games against the Packers last season, he threw a total of three touchdowns and four interceptions. Now he has to do it without Brandon Marshall (and first-round pick Kevin White) in the huddle, and Cutler ranks as the 13th-most expensive quarterback. In 10 career games against the Packers, Cutler has thrown 50-percent more interceptions (21) than touchdowns (14).
Hopefully, these Week 1 Value Plays at QB will help you in both your 50/50 games and your GPP tournaments on FanDuel, or whichever Daily Fantasy Football site you play on!
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