Every year there are two groups of players who are drafted too early in season-long Fantasy Baseball leagues.
The first are young and upcoming players who are “ready to breakout” and over-hyped in the preseason.
The second group is made up of former Fantasy studs, who have been on the decline, but whom many Fantasy Baseball owners believe have one more productive season left in them.
I came up with five players you should think twice about, if you haven’t already completed your 2015 draft.
If you have finished your draft, you may want to consider trade options for these players.
5 Overrated Fantasy Players for 2015
Average Draft Position (ADP) used below was taken from FantasyPros.com that compiles ADP from numerous online sources to offer an aggregate estimate.
Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay — Mid-50s ADP
This is a hard one to accept, given Longoria is still not 30 years old. But last year he barely hit over .250 and had an OBP (On Base Percentage) of .320. I expect his stats to continue to regress again this year. This has as much to do with the team around him, as it does with his declining production.
Even if Longoria does manage to hit 20 HR again this year, will there be anybody on base for him to collect RBI? Instead, look at Pablo Sandoval, who should offer similar production, but who you can grab several rounds later, or at a discounted auction price.
Dee Gordon, 2B, Miami — Low 60s ADP
Everyone’s heard the expression “Buy low, sell high.” That’s exactly what you are not doing if you draft Dee Gordon this year. To me, Dee Gordon is too much of a one-trick pony.
Instead, look at someone like Alex Rios who can also offer you some decent hitting production to go along with steals. Will Rios ever come close to the 40 steals he compiled a few years ago? No, but he has the potential to steal 20 bags, if he can stay healthy. So, if you can snag Rios seven or eight rounds later than Gordon, there is a lot of value to be had.
David Wright, 3B, N.Y. Mets — Mid-90s ADP
Formerly, someone you could pencil in for 20 HR year after year, injuries have taken their toll, and it is doubtful Wright hits even 15 HR this year. David Wright also saw his average dip down under .270 in 2014.
So, while Wright is still a relevant Fantasy player when healthy, why not look at someone like Brandon Philips as an infielder alternative, who has an average ADP in the 270s, but who could put up similar power numbers.
Mookie Betts, OF, Boston — ADP of 108
If I told you Betts will hit 15 HR and steal 15 bases, you would probably be happy with your selection at his current ADP. If I told you, however, that you could get 15 & 15 from Shin-Soo Choo (and possibly more) several rounds later, would you still be as content with Betts?
Choo has three 20-20 seasons under his belt, and at 32 years of age, he has a few more solid seasons to offer. Do you really want to pay up for potential, when you can pay less for proven success?
Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit — ADP in Mid-130s
I know everyone is down on Verlander this year, but in my opinion, we are not being critical enough. His current ADP is 137. Yet in many drafts I have participated in, or observed, there always seems to be someone who is willing to take a chance, that he can bounce back to his form of 2010. Starting pitchers are like running backs in the NFL –they don’t age gracefully. One year they are lights out, the next year they lose a little off their fastball and they can’t get anyone out anymore.
If you are looking for a pitcher with upside, try looking at Shelby Miller. His ADP is around 250. And while he may not earn as many wins as Verlander in 2015 because he plays on Atlanta, I believe his WHIP and K/9 will be better by year’s end.
Evan Longoria Photo Credit: Keith Allison
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