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The SCFE Fantasy Baseball Draft Package kicks off with the Arizona Diamondbacks Projections for the 2016 MLB season. Each day in January a we’ll take a look at a different team and try to get a handle on what each team has to offer Fantasy Owners.

Please keep in mind that these projections are Fantasy focused. I’ll only be projecting players likely to produce value in mixed leagues on down to 12-team NL or AL-only leagues. That means you’re not going to see a lot of back-up catchers and middle infielders.

That’s why, even though I’m a huge Tuffy Gosewisch fan, you won’t find his projections here. Twelve-team NL-only leagues go deep, but Tuffy Gosewisch has fewer home runs in his career than Tuffy Rhodes hit in one game, and most of you don’t even know who Tuffy Rhodes is.

These projections are also a work in progress. There’s talk of Arizona looking to add more offense, possibly at second base with the names of Howie Kendrick and Brandon Phillips being thrown around.

I also haven’t projected many of the Diamondbacks’ reserve players. I see them adding some veteran depth at some point and it’s not clear what their depth will look like come Opening Day. As Spring Training progresses I’ll likely add a few names here when the picture gets a little more clear.

I’ve included notes on some of the players below each projections table. The Diamondbacks look to be much improved, but they come with their share of question marks.

Arizona Diamondbacks Projections: Hitters

Pos.
PLAYER
G
AB
H
2B
3B
HR
R
RBI
BB
SO
SB
AVG
OBP
C
Welington Castillo
132
440
109
21
1
17
50
58
34
119
0
.247
.312
1B
Paul Goldschmidt
154
561
164
43
2
30
102
103
109
152
14
.292
.407
2B
Chris Owings
138
482
122
24
4
8
56
48
26
124
13
.253
.292
3B
Jake Lamb
138
462
120
23
5
15
57
52
51
124
4
.261
.333
SS
Nick Ahmed
145
462
108
16
2
6
55
42
27
95
5
.234
.277
LF
David Peralta
136
481
129
23
7
13
59
64
42
111
9
.267
.327
CF
A.J. Pollock
159
618
180
41
7
18
105
68
55
101
30
.292
.349
RF
Yasmany Tomas
138
495
127
27
2
16
52
63
24
123
5
.257
.292
RES
Aaron Hill
104
302
76
17
1
6
30
36
27
58
4
.252
.312

 

Notes on Diamondback Hitters:

  • Welington Castillo went on a power binge following his arrival in Arizona. While I’m projecting him with numbers similar to those he put up in 2015, 20-plus homers is in play. Don’t reach, but he makes for an intriguing second catcher in mixed leagues.
  • The projections for Paul Goldschmidt are probably his floor. He faded a bit in the second half of 2015 and I honestly can’t see him stealing 20-plus bags again. With that said, I’ll gladly take him with the third pick in any draft.
  • It’s hard to say  much nice about Chris Owings‘ 2015 numbers. He was terrible. He does however, have the capability to reach double digits in HRs and SBs. When you’re sorting through the remnants of middle infielders in NL leagues, maybe give him an extra look.
  • Nick Ahmed surprised me with nine HRs last year, but there’s nothing in his minor league track record that says it’s likely to happen again. He’s someone I won’t be drafting even in very deep leagues. The average will hurt and there’s nothing there to offset that damage.
  • Jake Lamb and Yasmany Tomas fought for playing time in 2015, but the trade of Ender Inciarte opens up right field for Tomas. The book on Tomas coming to Arizona was that he had real power, but the strikeouts would hurt his average. The power never materialized, but he did hit for a better average than expected. In 2016 I see a move toward more of what we expected from Tomas. The Diamondbacks would benefit greatly if Tomas became a reliable bat in the middle of their lineup. As a Fantasy owner I’m not paying for that, but he does offer some upside in the later rounds of drafts. Lamb is in much the same boat. He’s teased us with flashes of power, but has yet to really cash in. If he can stay on the field for 140-plus games, 20 HRs is not out of the question. The strikeouts will likely keep his average in the .260’s or below.
  • A.J. Pollock did nice things in the second half of 2014. In 2015 he was even nicer. We’re talking second ranked batter on the ESPN player rater nice. A small step back is possible, but he’ll still be a very aluable player with his power/speed combo. I have no qualms about using a late first round pick on Pollock.
  • Aaron Hill is nothing more than an NL-only reserve at this point, but if he manages to get full-time at-bats he might be able to muster up some type of value. He’s surprised us before after coming back from the dead… But he probably is mostly dead.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks Projections: Pitchers

Player
G
GS
QS
IP
W
L
ERA
WHIP
SV
HLD
H
ER
HR
SO
BB
Zack Greinke
32
32
22
224.0
17
11
3.23
1.09
0
0
196
80
20
207
47
Patrick Corbin
30
30
20
195.0
13
9
3.47
1.16
0
0
180
75
19
176
46
Shelby Miller
32
32
19
208.0
14
9
3.62
1.25
0
0
186
84
17
180
75
Rubby de la Rosa
40
18
8
140.0
6
10
4.18
1.37
0
8
145
65
18
124
46
Robbie Ray
28
28
13
173.6
10
11
4.06
1.41
0
0
178
78
17
152
68
Archie Bradley
16
16
8
84.8
6
5
4.22
1.47
0
0
84
40
8
67
41
Josh Collmenter
50
6
2
100.0
4
5
3.92
1.24
1
3
103
44
14
61
21
Brad Ziegler
70
0
0
73.5
2
4
2.84
1.05
34
4
58
23
3
49
19
Daniel Hudson
60
0
0
61.2
3
4
3.38
1.13
2
19
49
23
5
65
20
Silvino Bracho
45
0
0
42.8
2
3
3.23
1.03
0
9
32
15
4
51
11
Andrew Chafin
58
0
0
60.9
3
5
4.03
1.46
0
14
64
27
5
42
25

 

Notes on Diamondback Pitchers:

  • The move to Chase Field will have some effect on Zack Greinke‘s numbers, but in reality you couldn’t project him to repeat last year’s numbers even if he stayed in Los Angeles. He’s had no problems pitching in Arizona with a 3.05 ERA in 10 career starts. His projected 3.23 ERA is based mostly on a 3.27 SIERA last year and the change in environment. I don’t see Greinke as a bust at all. I just see a natural regression from a season that very few pitchers can hope to achieve.
  • Patrick Corbin returned from Tommy John surgery and looked very much like the young lefty who really broke out in 2013. He bumped his K rate up to 8.26/9 and lowered his walk rate to 1.80. If he can maintain those rates and gain a little more consistency another year removed from surgery, even better things could be in store. There’s not much hype surrounding Corbin, but I see the opportunity for great value here. The ballpark likely prevents him from being a Top 20 starter, but he should finish too far back of that pack.
  • Many are looking a the low 6.4 HR/FB% and saying that Shelby Miller was lucky last year. Others are worried about the new digs in Arizona. A look at his batted ball profile should ease some of those concerns. Miller completely revamped his arsenal, relying much less on the curveball and turning to the cutter. The result was a 47.7 GB%, that at least partially explains the dearth of long balls. Miller will undoubted regress in that regard, but he’ll also likely get a lot more run support, resulting in more than the six wins he posted for the Braves. I like Miller to be a nice No. 3 Fantasy starter, who is likely to fall far enough in drafts to become a strong value.
  • In a different park I might like Robbie Ray more, but his stuff is just average and he doesn’t have the control to compensate. He’s a useful pitcher in NL-only formats, but there’s plenty of risk as well.
  • Rubby de la Rosa showed flashes of dominance in 2015. The problem is he’s shown flashes throughout his career, but has yet to put a quality season together. The projection above is dependent upon Archie Bradley stepping up and grabbing the No. 5 slot in the rotation around the midway point of the season. De La Rosa profiles nicely as a reliever and the Arizona pen could use another strong arm there.
  • Between injuries and inconsistency many have written Archie Bradley off. He may never be the Fantasy ace we were hoping for, but his stuff is too good to flounder much longer. Arizona wants and needs him to step up and be an important part of their rotation. I see him starting the year in the minors to build confidence and then getting the call in June or July. Then we’ll likely see some spectacular outings mixed in with some ugly ones.
  • No, Brad Ziegler doesn’t bring the heat Aroldis Chapman style, and he doesn’t have the intimidation factor of a Craig Kimbrel. All he’s done throughout his career though, is get batters out.  The Diamondbacks finally turned to him as the full-time closer last year after exhausting all other options, and it worked out just fine. He’s not going to help you anywhere but in the saves category, but I’m comfortable with Ziegler as my second closer in mixed leagues.
  • The rest of the Arizona bullpen is unspectacular, but they do offer some nice options for NL-only owners. Silvino Bracho, in particular, has solid strikeout potential that plays nice in deep leagues. Daniel Hudson is the veteran who would likely get the call to close if Ziegler should falter. His stuff isn’t what it once was, but he knows how to pitch and would likely hold down the fort if needed.

Those are the Arizona Diamondbacks Projections for the 2016 MLB season. Disagree with one of my projections? Is there another player you think needs to be included? Let me know about it in the comments section at the bottom of the page.

2016 MLB Projections By Team

NL WEST
NL CENTRAL
NL EAST
COL
LAD
SD
SF
CHC
CIN
MIL
PIT
STL
ATL
MIA
NYM
PHI
WAS
AL WEST
AL CENTRAL
AL EAST
OAK
SEA
TEX
CWS
CLE
DET
KC
MIN
BAL
BOS
NYY
TB
TOR

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Doug "RotoDaddy" Anderson

Doug Anderson took on the moniker RotoDaddy with the birth of his son in 2003. He's a veteran of the industry and has been playing Fantasy Baseball for over 20 years. His work has been seen on RotoExperts.com, SI.com, Yahoo, USAToday.com and also in the pages of various Fantasy magazines. He's currently also in charge of aggregation efforts at The Fantasy Sports Network and represents them in the LABR Mixed Experts League.
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