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The Big Board: 4 Undervalued Outfielders

J.D. Martinez is one of Fantasy Baseball's most undervalued outfielders.

We recently went live here at “So-Called Fantasy Experts” with the Big Board, a draft assist program that calculates player values and rankings for 2015.

You haven’t seen anything like it!

It supports a TON of different custom league types, but to show off its awesomeness, we set up a standard 5×5 board and dove in to identify some of the most undervalued players heading into 2015 Fantasy Baseball draft season.

Player values here are calculated using an unadjusted 50/50 combo of the Steamer/ZiPs projection with ESPN standard lineups, and are compared against the ADPs for the three major sites.

To make your own rankings/$ values and find more players like these for your specific league, check out the Big Board!

4 Undervalued Outfielders

Check out this handful of players we think have a chance to bring more value than their current price suggests.

J.D. Martinez

ADP:     ESPN – 150     Yahoo – 105     CBS – 88
Big Board’s 53rd best player, $18
2014 Stats: 480 PA, 23 HR, 57 R, 76 RBI, 6 SB, .315 AVG
Projection: 581 PA, 23 HR, 66 R, 89 RBI, 6 SB, .278 AVG
     

Martinez was unstoppable once he got a starting job for Detroit last year, mostly hitting fifth in one of the most potent lineups in baseball. Though he may move down a spot with the arrival of Cespedes, I’m confident he’ll at least meet his projections, and could surpass them if he can maintain his high BABIP from last year. Some great analysis over at FG has discussed the fundamental changes in J.D.’s swing that have led to the breakout and really underlines the fact that this new productivity at the plate is something we can believe in. Especially in ESPN, J.D. is going to be a steal in drafts this year.

 

Jorge Soler

ADP:     ESPN – 128     Yahoo – 85     CBS – 102
Big Board’s 64th best player, $16
2014 MLB:     97 PA, 5 HR, 11 R, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .292 AVG
2014 MiLB: 236 PA, 15 HR, 42 R, 57 RBI, 0 SB, .340 AVG
Projection: 558 PA, 22 HR, 74 R, 87 RBI, 4 SB, .257 AVG
       

Not only is Soler projected for value significantly above his ADP, but I believe there’s quite a bit of upside above that line. Injuries in the minors kept him a bit under the radar, but he returned with a vengeance in late 2015, showing off a mature approach with walk rates above 13% at every MiLB level. He K’d more and walked less in his 100 PA stint with the Cubs, but at just 22 years old he’s got plenty of room to mature this season while hitting 4th or 5th in the Cubs lineup every day. Plus, he showed up with 25 lbs of extra muscle at spring training, and by all accounts looks like an absolute monster.

 

Joc Pederson

ADP:     ESPN – 207     Yahoo – N/A     CBS – 148
Big Board’s 124th best player, $11
2014 AAA: 553 PA, 33 HR, 106 R, 78 RBI, 30 SB .303 AVG
Projection: 541 PA, 20 HR, 67 R, 65 RBI, 18 SB, .232 AVG
       

Pederson might be the 2015 version of 2014’s George Springer (and George Springer might also be that, but will cost you an early round pick instead).  He brings both power and speed, should come super cheap, and is likely to be the opening day CF for the Dodgers. They traded away Kemp and are trying to pay people to take Ethier off their hands, so Pederson is firmly slotted in as the future of the team, and any time a powerhouse like the Dodgers is willing to do that for a young guy, it’s time to do the same on your fantasy squad. Ignore the K’s just like you do for Springer, and enjoy the ability to spend those early round $’s on more scarce positions.

 

Charlie Blackmon

ADP:     ESPN – 135     Yahoo – 75     CBS – 100
Big Board’s 36th best player, $20
2014 Stats: 648 PA, 19 HR, 82 R, 72 RBI, 28 SB, .288 AVG
Projection: 664 PA, 17 HR, 80 R, 68 RBI, 23 SB, .276 AVG

“But he was just a fluke last year!” … yep, a little bit. But projected for a bit less power, average, and speed this year, Blackmon is still a top fantasy option who isn’t being drafted that way. While Drew Stubbs is likely to sneak away some PA from the three starting Colorado OF’s, Blackmon should get at least 600 PA this year with half of them coming in everyone’s favorite Fantasy Baseball stadium, Coors Field. He’s no CarGo, but enjoy the buoyed HR power and BABIP that comes with being a Rockie and draft with confidence.

 

Want more?  Check out the Big Board!

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