“Saturday — In the ballpark!
I think it was the 25th of April!
Ahhh, yes, obviously, the great American philosophers Chciago that said it best. (They were obviously Daily Fantasy Baseball players.)
We bring you our FanDuel picks for Saturday, 4/25, one day after Doug Anderson hooked you up with some solid plays on a big Friday night.
We’re nearly one month into the baseball season, so we can start taking early season stats a little more seriously. The stats I share in my regular starting pitchers DFS chart will come from their 2015 numbers.
For today’s article, we’re only going to target the nighttime games. There are six early games, but this article won’t be posted early enough to help as many owners as I’d help dissecting the later games.
Starting Pitcher Rankings: FanDuel Picks for Saturday, 4/25
There are two 1pm games, a 2pm game, three 4pm games, a 6pm game, and eight nighttime games, so we’re not discussing the 6pm Toronto/Tampa Bay start. (If you play early, though, know that Erasmo Ramirez is pitching for Tampa Bay and he’ll be throwing batting practice, pretty much, to the Blue Jays in Toronto.
|Rank||Starting Pitcher, Matchup||FD Price||Vegas||O/U||K/9||Def-Eff|
|1||Adam Wainwright RHP, STL at MIL||$9,600||-160||4||6.00||.722|
|2||James Paxton LHP, SEA vs. MIN||$6,400||-160||4.25||7.20||.673|
|3||Shelby Miller RHP, ATL at PHI||$8,400||-125||4.25||6.19||.712|
|4||Brandon McCarthy RHP, LAD at SD||$7,800||-120||4||12.50||.672|
|5||A.J. Burnett RHP, PIT at ARI||$6,900||-120||5||8.00||.687|
|6||Ian Kennedy RHP, SD vs. LAD||$7,800||110||3||9.27||.694|
|7||Justin Masterson RHP, BOS at BAL||$6,800||100||3.75||9.77||.697|
|8||C.J. Wilson LHP, LAA at TEX||$7,600||-165||4.5||6.20||.708|
|9||Wei-Yin Chen LHP, BAL vs. BOS||$7,200||-110||4.75||6.75||.708|
|10||Rubby De La Rosa RHP, ARI at PIT||$6,200||100||4||8.50||.698|
|11||Tim Hudson RHP, SF at COL||$6,900||103||5.5||5.40||.681|
|12||David Buchanan RHP, PHI vs. ATL||$4,900||115||3.25||5.27||.690|
|13||Trevor May RHP, MIN at SEA||$6,000||145||3.25||6.35||.697|
|14||Jorge De La Rosa LHP, COL vs. SF||$5,900||-113||4.5||6.79||.676|
|15||Colby Lewis RHP, TEX at LAA||$6,300||150||3.5||5.21||.661|
|16||Wily Peralta RHP, MIL vs. STL||$6,600||145||3||3.79||.680|
Interesting Notes About Today’s Starting Pitchers
Here are a few things that stand out to me about today’s list of starting pitchers, and why you should or shouldn’t consider using some of these players.
- There are four left-handers on the mound tonight (bolded in the chart).
- The K/9 numbers for Ian Kennedy and Jorge De La Rosa were taken from their 2014 seasons, since they’ve only pitched in one game each this year. (Kennedy is coming back from a bad hamstring, and this is his first game back.)
- If you’re desperate for a pitcher’s win, C.J. Wilson is pitching on the team Vegas favors the most (-165). He also pitches for a team with one of the best defenses so far this season.
- Note that the Giants-Rockies game is in Colorado, where Vegas expects 10 runs to be scored. I’d steer clear of both pitchers – but I’d also load up on some of the hitters.
It should be a pretty nice evening across the country – with just one game with a 50-percent chance of precipitation (or higher).
- Boston at Baltimore: 55% chance of precipitation
- San Francisco at Colorado: 20%
- A. Dodgers at San Diego: 45%
I’d be cautious of starting pitchers for Boston or Baltimore, as the rain percentages pick up as the evening goes on. In other words, if the game goes into a rain delay, it looks like the rain will just get worse later in the evening … Have you ever been to San Diego? That city repels rain like … a rainproof rain jacket of some sort. Plus, there’s only a 25% chance of rain at the start of the game, so they could get the required amount of innings in for the pitchers. I might be cautious of the hitters, though.
FanDuel Picks for Saturday, 4/25
I’ll try to give you a regular choice (mid and expensive), with a bargain option as well, for each position. As always, check the team’s lineups as you get closer – a great spot to do that is on MLBStartingNine.com.
Adam Wainwright, RHP, St. Louis at MIL, $9,600
Vegas has the Cardinals as big favorites today against Milwaukee, the second-lowest scoring team in the majors. The Cardinals defense won’t be giving away runs either, as they have the best team defensive efficiency (.722) in the league right now. Since mid-week, when the Brewers’ lineup was essentially shredded, they have scored a total of just three runs in their past three games.
Brandon McCarthy, RHP, L.A. Dodgers at SD, $7,800
McCarthy’s 30.6% K-BB% ranks third in the majors this season, behind just Carlos Carrasco (39.5%) and Matt Harvey (30.7%). As a matter of fact, Trevor May and A.J. Burnett are tied for second in that category among these pitchers, at just 14.9%. Plus, McCarthy’s 9.77 K/9 is fifth in the majors, and well ahead of the second-best pitcher in that category today (Justin Masterson, 9.77. Petco Park remains a great pitcher’s park, in spite of the retooled Padres offense. McCarthy is my favorite play in cash games tonight.
James Paxton, Seattle vs. MIN, $6,400
Paxton and Wainwright are Vegas’ second-favorite teams today, but considering Wainwright costs 50-percent more than Paxton, I’d rather roll with the M’s youngster. The lefty’s ERA is inflated because of a scoring change against the Rangers, allowing 7 ER in 2.2 IP, and he has yet to pick up a win. But this is his best shot so far. Rotoworld speculates there could be some dead arm issues with him, but I like him in GPP games tonight.
Buster Posey, San Francisco ($4,000)
The slugger hit .304 with eight homers and 32 RBI in 168 at-bats against lefties last year – and he’s in Colorado today. Just check the weather.
Kurt Suzuki, Minnesota ($2,200)
He hits pretty well against left-handers, with a .331 batting average and 20 RBI in 120 at-bats vs. lefties last year.
Albert Pujols, L.A. Angels ($3,100)
Adrian Gonzalez is the only first baseman to have more RBI against RHP than Pujols last year, and Pujols faces Colby Lewis, who gave up 25 HR last season (eighth-most in the majors).
Logan Morrison, Seattle ($2,200)
He popped his first home run of the season last night, and he faces RHP Trevor May tonight, who is coming off a strong outing. But May also had an ERA north of 7.00 last year, so we’ll side with Lo-Mo, especially if you spent all your dough on a pitcher like Wainwright.
D.J. LeMahieu, Colorado ($3,100)
He has three doubles in his past three games, and he’s batting .414 against right-handed pitchers.
Neil Walker, Pittsburgh ($2,800)
He has a seven-game hitting streak, and while it doesn’t make much difference in today’s game, it’s still good to know he’s healthy and swinging with confidence. Walker also led the position with 21 HR vs. RHP last season (50-pct higher than any other 2B).
Elvis Andrus, Texas ($2,700)
Sure, he’s not so much a slugger that will get you a ton of points that way, but he hit .310 against LHPs last year, and he still bats second in an offense that has to pick up soon.
Johnny Peralta, Seattle ($2,500)
No reason to spend big today on shortstops, although, Tulo at home is nice. Peralta hit a solo shot last night, and he’ll face Peralta, who has struggled this season. Peralta had 17 HR and 57 RBI against RHP last season.
Nolan Arenado ($3,800)
Arenado is splits-proof this season, with 34 total bases against right-handed pitching this year. Only four hitters in the majors have more total bases vs. RHP.
Cody Asche, Philadelphia ($2,200)
Cheap left-handed hitter against a right-handed pitcher – at a decent hitter’s park.
He’s the first pick in Fantasy leagues and he’s the first pick in our hearts! Trout gets to tee off at home against Lewis.
Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh ($3,200)
Polanco leads the Pirates with 25 total bases against RHP, and Vegas expects this to be the second-highest scoring game of the day.
Matt Joyce, L.A. Angels ($2,300)
A super cheap option who should be back in the lineup against HR-heavy Lewis in Anaheim.
Seth Smith, Seattle ($2,200)
There are plenty of cheap options like Smith, who’ll bat second in the lineup against RHP Trevor May, which allows you to spend big on pitching or guys like Trout.
Good luck with your FanDuel picks for Saturday, 4/25!
Adam Wainwright Photo Credit: bk1bennett
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