We’re a little over a couple weeks into the 2015 MLB season, and we’re starting to get a good idea of what to expect from teams.
That should help DFS owners set better lineups, and our FanDuel picks should start getting better and better.
We’ve had some great calls and some bad calls, but hopefully, you’ve been on the side of the former more than the latter.
Statistics are starting to build up in 2015, so we can start pushing those 2014 stats behind us, more and more. But we’re still looking at a really small sample size, so we kinda have to look at both.
For today’s article, we’re only going to target the nighttime games.
Starting Pitcher Rankings: FanDuel Picks for Wednesday, 4/22
There is one 2pm game – which we won’t break down — and seven 7pm games, three 8pm games, and essentially four 10pm games.
|Rank||Starting Pitcher, Matchup||FD Price||Vegas||O/U||K%-BB%||Def-Eff|
|1||David Price LHP, DET vs. NYY||$11,400||-175||4.25||17.9||0.747|
|2||Clayton Kershaw LHP, LAD at SF||$12,600||-128||3.5||24.7||0.668|
|3||Jimmy Nelson RHP, MIL vs. CIN||$7,400||119||3||23.8||0.658|
|4||Johnny Cueto RHP, CIN at MIL||$10,600||-129||4||26.6||0.712|
|5||J.A. Happ LHP, SEA vs. HOU||$6,900||-158||4.25||3.9||0.668|
|6||Madison Bumgarner LHP, SF vs. LAD||$9,900||118||2.5||12||0.677|
|7||Joe Kelly RHP, BOS at TB||$7,100||-118||4.5||14.9||0.711|
|8||Cole Hamels LHP, PHI vs. MIA||$9,800||-128||4||12.0||0.696|
|9||Yovani Gallardo RHP, TEX at ARI||$7,600||101||3.75||15.9||0.661|
|10||Jeremy Guthrie RHP, KC vs. MIN||$8,300||-155||4.5||5.9||0.744|
|11||Sonny Gray RHP, OAK at LAA||$9,400||-110||4.25||10.8||0.71|
|12||Archie Bradley RHP, ARI vs. TEX||$7,300||-111||4.75||8.5||0.69|
|13||Dillon Gee RHP, NYM vs. ATL||$6,600||-132||4.25||15.6||0.713|
|14||James Shields RHP, SD at COL||$8,700||-119||5.5||23.8||0.699|
|15||Vance Worley RHP, PIT vs. CHC||$7,300||-116||4.25||7.3||0.691|
|16||Ubaldo Jimenez RHP, BAL at TOR||$7,000||100||4||16.2||0.712|
|17||Nate Karns RHP, TB vs. BOS||$6,900||108||3.5||9.7||0.729|
|18||Aaron Sanchez RHP, TOR vs. BAL||$6,400||-110||5||0.0||0.707|
|19||Doug Fister RHP, WAS vs. STL||$9,000||-110||4||0.0||0.673|
|20||John Lackey RHP, STL at WAS||$8,100||100||3||11.8||0.727|
|21||Jered Weaver RHP, LAA vs. OAK||$8,200||100||3.25||6.9||0.719|
|22||Jason Hammel RHP, CHC at PIT||$8,100||106||3.25||19.6||0.681|
|23||Adam Warren RHP, NYY at DET||$7,200||160||3.25||-2.4||0.668|
|24||Kyle Kendrick RHP, COL vs. SD||$6,300||109||4.5||7.6||0.668|
|25||Jarred Cosart RHP, MIA at PHI||$7,500||118||3||4.3||0.709|
|26||Eric Stults LHP, ATL at NYM||$6,100||122||3.25||4.9||0.718|
|27||Mike Pelfrey RHP, MIN at KC||$5,800||145||3.5||-2.3||0.69|
|28||Roberto Hernandez RHP, HOU at SEA||$5,900||148||3.25||6.7||0.723|
Interesting Notes About Today’s Starting Pitchers
Here are a few things that stand out to me about today’s list of starting pitchers, and why you should or shouldn’t consider using some of these players.
- There are six left-handers on the mound tonight, so plenty right-handed hitters should be happy.
- But, four of the six LHPs on today’s docket rank among the top-five most expensive pitchers on FanDuel.
- David Price and J.A. Happ are on the two teams with the best odds, according to Vegas, to end up with a win tonight.
- While Clayton Kershaw is considered the best ace in all the land, he is quite expensive, and while Vegas favors the Dodgers to win, the Dodgers aren’t expected to give him much run support against Madison Bumgarner.
- Johnny Cueto is hitting on all cylinders, and his current 26.6 K%-BB% ranks first among today’s SPs. But Adam Warren and Mike Pelfrey are tallying more walks than strikeouts this season.
- Doug Fister has allowed just one earned run in 13 innings (two starts) this season, but he has just five strikeouts to go with five walks issued.
- Mike Pelfrey is facing a Royals team that has an .841 team OPS vs. RHP right-handed pitching right now (second in the majors to LAD).
It should be a pretty nice evening across the country – with no games with a 50-percent chance of precipitation (or higher). Although, there are a handful of games with 35-40 percent precipitation expected in the first hour (7pm), including: MIA at PHI, CHC at PIT, NYY at DET and ATL at NYM.
FanDuel Picks for Wednesday, 4/22
I’ll try to give you a regular choice (mid and expensive), with a bargain option as well, for each position. As always, check the team’s lineups as you get closer – a great spot to do that is on MLBStartingNine.com.
David Price, Detroit vs. NYY, $11,400
Vegas loves Price tonight (and you should, too, in spite of his … price), with a -175 money line. The Tigers went from being one of the worst defensive teams in the majors a couple years ago to the best so far this season, with a majors-leading .747 defensive efficiency in 2015. Adam Warren is getting more walks than strikeouts, and the Yankees have one of the worst defensive efficiency numbers this year (0.668).
Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee vs. CIN, $7,400
Nelson had a great start – and then a bad start – this season. But both came against the Pirates, which makes sense why they were able to hit him harder in Game 2. They got a better look at his stuff. Also, Nelson added a spike curve this spring, as FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris pointed out. I like Nelson as a GPP play because he’ll notch some strikeouts and the Brewers offense is starting to show some life (even though half of them are injured), with 10 runs on Tuesday.
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J.A. Happ, Seattle vs. HOU, $6,900
Happ went 11-11 with the Blue Jays last season, with a 4.22 ERA, but now he’s in a better pitcher’s park, and the Mariners are hitting well at Safeco Field (.276). Happ has a great price for GPP play, a great ballpark, and he’s facing an Astros team that’s hitting just .204 against lefties this season.
Martin hit .298 with 11 homers and 58 RBI against RHP last season.
Francisco Cervelli, Pittsburgh ($2,300)
The man that replaced Martin in the Steel City should be back in the lineup tonight, and he’s off to a hot start this year (.307 BA). He smacked around RHP to the tune of a .317 batting average last year (third in the majors among Cs with 50-plus plate appearances).
Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto ($4,000)
E.E. started the season a little slow (he’s batting just .218), but he smacked two home runs Tuesday night, which didn’t work into his current salary. Plus, no one had more RBI against RHP last season.
Billy Butler, Oakland ($3,200)
Who’s seeing the ball better right now than Butler, who has a base hit in 14 of the first 15 games of his A’s career.
Ian Kinsler, Detroit ($3,800)
No other second baseman had more RBI against right-handed pitchers last season than Kinsler’s 70.
Johnny Giovetalla, L.A. Angels ($2,300)
Super cheap option allows you to fill up in other areas. Giovatella is batting .300 against right handers this season – and Sonny Gray gave up 11 hits in his last outing.
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado ($5,300)
Sure, he’s expensive and he’s facing a good pitcher in Shields, but Shields is still just a good pitcher – and this is Coors Field.
Brad Miller, Seattle ($2,500)
Nice option at a great price, Miller gets the lefty-vs-righty matchup, albeit in a tough hitter’s park, but he is hitting .345 against RHP this year.
Kyle Seager, Seattle ($3,800)
He’s starting to creep up there in price, but for today, he’s still just the sixth-most expensive third basemen on FanDuel. He faces RHP Roberto Hernandez, and Seager hit 21 homers against RHPs last season.
Brock Holt, Boston Red Sox ($2,600)
This is a nice cheap play if he ends up in the lineup tonight. He’s batting .435 against righties in the early part of the season.
Stanton has three home runs in his past five games, and no one has given up as many home runs this season as Cole Hamels (all to right-handed hitters).
Michael Cuddyer, N.Y. Mets ($3,400)
Cuddyer is hitting well in his new uniform, and no outfielder hit better against left-handed pitchers (.412) last season.
Josh Reddick, Oakland ($3,300)
In just 264 at-bats against RHP last season, Reddick hit 12 HR with 46 RBI, ranking him 33rd among outfielders. But no other OF had as many RBI with as few at-bats.
Shane Victorino, Boston ($2,400)
Yes, he’s totally struggling this season, but if he’s in the lineup against the Rays’ Nate Karns, he’s still a good play because of the lineup around him. There’s a good chance he scores if he gets on base.
Good luck with your FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball lineups for Wednesday, 4/22!
Giancarlo Stanton Photo Credit: Paul Hadsall
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