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If you clicked on this link thinking you have struck Doug Anderson gold I am sorry, he needed the morning off. Today you get Jerry Colvin. Who am I? No one really. Just a husband, father, bar owner, DFS player, and occasional writer. But, you want to read about baseball not some overweight guy in a Los Angeles Dodger hat dribble on-and-on about his life. Plus, we have a full slate of MLB action so let’s get moving.

Tonight’s strategy

The beauty of this evening is we have no Colorado or Arizona home games. This certainly makes a noticeable difference in the Vegas expected run totals. The highest of the night is nine and that is the Texas Rangers facing the Astros tonight in Houston. The Rangers have that huge pile of crap we call Colby Lewis (I do not care that he is 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA.) facing a giant bag of WTF in Lance McCullers. I fully expect bats from both sides to be the chalk tonight for cash games and it certainly would be prudent for you to grab at least one or two of them to plug into your lineups.

Starting Pitching

No matter how hard you try to be contrarian tonight the truth is you will be regardless of the SP you select. This is one of them nights where we have several good starters all in decent matchups with the added bonus of park shift sprinkled in for good measure. Your first thought is Arrieta right? Although I do expect Jake from State Farm to carry the highest ownership percentage in cash games I honestly believe the difference between him and Aaron Nola will be minimal with Jakes high price tag. On FanDuel the minute you plug Arrieta into your lineup you are left with less than $2,900 per player to spend for roster construction. Unless you are an experienced DFS player this can be difficult when you want a Manny Machado or Mike Trout in your lineup. So today I am going to offer you some options outside of Jake Arrieta to use.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (3-2, 2.89 ERA) $9,000 FD $11,000 DK

 First off I find his price a little inflated on DraftKings. For $1,800 more it would be wise to find a way to upgrade to Arrieta in my opinion. But on Fanduel the price is just right.

The Atlanta Braves are only striking out 18.6 percent of the time versus RHP but have a low .286 wOBA and wRC+ of 75, both of which are 29th in MLB. They also do not hit much better on the road carrying a .287 wOBA but have picked things up batting .271 over the last seven days which I do find slightly concerning.

Tonight Nola gets a positive park shift at home with Citizens Bank Park being 24th in MLB in runs scored and is also a -161 favorite pitching in a game with a low expected run total of seven. Over his last two starts versus the Reds at home and on the road versus Miami he has 14 strikeouts over 13 innings while only allowing four earned runs. Do not let the 5.68 home ERA scare you off as most of this was due to a seven ER debacle versus the Washington Nationals on April 16th. Nola has a groundball rate of 56 percent, a 9.85 K/9, and opponents are batting .186 off of him on the season. When you take park shift, opponent, and his overall stats into consideration I do not see much of a downgrade here from Arrieta tonight and he will be the pitcher I use in my cash games on FanDuel.

Matz, Steven 2010 Bowman Chrome Auto RC 

Steven Matz, New York Mets (5-1, 2.86 ERA) $9,800 FD $10,500 DK

First off let me just say that at his price point tonight coming off an injury and on a reported conservative pitch count Matz will be extremely low owned and should only be used in GPPs but if you like a risk could be cash game viable. I am not sure what a conservative pitch count means, are we talking 75? 80? I find this extremely vague. All this aside it is hard to ignore the matchup.

Tonight Matz gets a positive park shift at home in Citi Field facing a Brewers team for the first time who are striking out 20.8 percent of the time with a .324 wOBA versus LHP. They also have a .310 wOBA on the road and are ice cold batting .227 over the last seven days. Although the Brewers can hit LHP fairly well Matz is not your average LHP. Over his last two starts versus the Braves at home and Dodgers on the road he has 13 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings while only allowing two ER. His K/9 is currently 9.09 and he keeps the ball on the ground 56.5 percent of the time. All the IPs look good to me and even on a pitch count I would be happy to take eight strikeouts over five innings with one earned run tonight out of Matz on his “conservative pitch count”. By the way Vegas also agrees with the Mets being -199 favorites.

Tyler Duffey, Minnesota Twins (1-2, 1.85 ERA) $6,400 FD $7,900 DK

Sometimes in a GPP it is nice to find a dirt cheap pitcher with a high K upside facing a dangerous team that does strikeout a lot. Tonight we got all that in Tyler Duffey facing the Toronto Blue Jays.

Duffey gets a positive park shift tonight at home pitching in Target field which is 33rd in runs scored and 24th in HR allowed in MLB. The Blue Jays are striking out 23.7 percent of the time versus RHP with a low .310 wOBA. On the road their wOBA drops to .306 and they are only batting .235 over the last seven days.

Meanwhile, Duffey in his last two starts versus the Indians and White Sox on the road has 15 strikeouts over 14 innings with three ER. For the low salary you can basically choose whoever you want for hitters, this I find fun sometimes and I will be running out Duffey in a GPP or two tonight.

Cash Game Top Five

  1. Jake Arrieta – Chicago Cubs
  2. Aaron Nola – Philadelphia Phillies
  3. Carlos Martinez – St. Louis Cardinals
  4. Jose Quintana – Chicago White Sox
  5. Steven Matz – New York Mets (Borderline GPP play)

 GPP Top Four

  1. Tyler Duffey – Minnesota Twins
  2. Christian Friedrich – San Diego Padres
  3. Sonny Gray – Oakland Athletics (On DK a must play!)
  4. Matt Andriese – Tampa Bay Rays

Catcher

Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals (.336 Avg., 4 HR) $3,000 FD $3,600 DK

Ramos today faces a pitcher with a K/9 of 1.50 in Justin Nicolino who allowed four ER and five hits over 4 2/3 innings versus the Nationals in his last outing. RHB are hitting .271 versus Nicolino and Ramos has a .509 SLG. on the season and .349 home avg. I do not like to spend up on catcher as of late but his price is more than reasonable across the industry tonight.

Miguel Montero, Chicago Cubs (.207 Avg., 1 HR) $2,700 FD $3,800 DK

I for one believe that Miguel Montero is a sleeping giant with a double-dong night just waiting to burst out. Even though over the last seven days he is only batting .200 with one HR and is playing in the pitcher friendly AT & T Park he is facing Jake Peavy. Although Peavy has looked better as of late with a 3.27 ERA over his last two starts he is still the same guy who has allowed 33 ER over his last 40 innings. For the price hitting in this offense I am loving me some Montero. If by some chance he sits tonight and David Ross starts I like him just as much.

First Baseman

Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs (.255 Avg., 11 HR) $4,400 FD $4,600 DK

Maybe it’s me but I find this one kind of a no brainer. Rizzo is batting .287 with nine HR and a .439 wOBA versus RHP with a wRC+ of 176. LHB are hitting .379 off of Jake Peavy and for the price I find Rizzo impossible not to use in cash games. Home runs are money and unfavorable ball park or not Rizzo hits bombs.

Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (.224 Avg., 8 HR) $3,600 FD $4,000 DK

Last season I seem to remember writing about how I never expected to be writing about Albert Pujols again. So here we are in 2016 and I still cannot believe Albert Pujols is relevant. Well guess again. Over the last seven days Pujols is batting .370 with 10 hits, one HR, and seven RBI. Tonight he faces Mike Wright who has allowed seven ER over his last 12 innings pitched and has a 7.15 road ERA. I find all of this terribly hard to ignore tonight and will have exposure to Pujols for sure.

Second Baseman

Neil Walker, New York Mets (.261 Avg., 10 HR) $2,700 FD $3,700 DK

Dear FanDuel,

It is apparently obvious by the criminal $2,700 salary that you guys at FanDuel have lost all respect for Neil Walker. Never mind the 10 HR on the season, forget about the decent .326 wOBA versus RHP, and be sure to cheapen him because he is only batting .261 with one HR over the last seven days. Make sure you do not take into consideration he is facing Wily Peralta who RHB are hitting .412 off of this season while failing to recognize the eight ER he has allowed in his last 10 2/3 innings pitched. Thank you. I will take it.

Your friend,

The Real Jerry Colvin

Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers (.275 Avg., 7 HR) $3,600 FD $3,600 DK

I am not going to lie. If Rougned Odor punched a guy in the face every game I would sell my bar, move to Texas, and become a season ticket holder. Or, the guy who sells hot dogs. Whichever came first. The point is I would be at all the games. Nothing excites a baseball fan like myself more than a good old bench clearing rumble. You add in 48 hours of Jose Bautista getting punched dead flush in the face and it makes for fine television.

Tonight the Rangers-Astros game as earlier mentioned has the highest expected run total of the evening at nine. Odor is batting .265 with seven HR and has a .342 wOBA versus RHP while only striking out 15.6 percent of the time on the season. Tonight he would face Lance McCullers who I actually think is a good pitcher but still not at 100 percent. In his first outing back versus the Red Sox he surrendered five ER in 4 2/3 innings. I can see a similar situation tonight in the hitter friendly dome of Houston.

Third Baseman

Danny Valencia, Oakland Athletics (.352 Avg., 6 HR) $3,300 FD $3,600 DK

Third base tonight for the most part will be a free space. Danny Valencia has a price point based on his current production that is an enormous value. To be honest I have built two lineups and I really want to go Valencia in both. He has a .543 wOBA, wRC+ of 262, and is only striking out 6.5 percent of the time so far versus LHP. He has six HR, 11 RBI, and is batting .444 over the last seven days as well. Tonight he faces CC Sabathia who spends more time trying to make sure the back of his jersey does not come untucked exposing his ever growing but crack rather than trying to be a good pitcher nowadays. I am all in on Valencia tonight.

Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals (.250 Avg., 2 HR) $3,700 FD $4,100 DK

Although I like Anthony Rendon I suspect pretty much any third baseman tonight not named Valencia to be a GPP play. It is hard to sell Rendon for his price over Valencia that is for sure. Rendon does however have a great matchup facing Justin Nicolino who earlier mentioned strikes out a little over one batter per nine innings. Not that it matters as Rendon is only striking out 16 percent of the time on the season and is batting .391 with five RBI over the last seven days. He also has a lofty .339 wOBA versus LHP if it helps. I will have exposure to Rendon in a lineup or two but most of my bankroll is going on Danny Valencia.

Shortstop

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles (.319 Avg., 11 HR) $3,700 FD $4,100 DK

Did you know that Manny Machado despite having a .359 wOBA versus LHP has yet to hit a HR off of a lefty this season? It’s true. With Machado slumping a little batting only .138 over the last seven days with one HR his price is dropping across the industry. Tonight I love the Orioles to take apart Hector Santiago who has allowed seven ER in his last 17 2/3 innings. He also has a home ERA of 4.41 and Machado has had success in a small sample size off of Santiago (3-for-7 with one XBH). For the price he is my favorite play at SS tonight.

Jimmy Rollins, Chicago White Sox (.239 Avg., 2 HR) $3,100 FD $3,800 DK

First off if you are going to spend $3,800 on DraftKings than I suggest you cut $300 somewhere and upgrade to Machado. If playing on FanDuel I still prefer Machado but I love Rollins in a large field GPP tonight. First off, he sucks. He should retire. Second of all, Dillon Gee sucks. He should retire. If you are into BVP Rollins is 14-for-31 lifetime off of Gee with two HR. Rollins is very boom or bust, some nights he gives you great fantasy production and others he just goes to sleep. It is just a matter of who has the earlier bedtime tonight…Gee? or Rollins?

Outfielders

Mazara, Nomar 2012 Bowman Chrome Auto RC

Nomar Mazara, Texas Rangers (.307 Avg., 5 HR) $3,100 FD $2,900 DK

The last time I liked a player named Nomar I was forced to spend what seemed like minutes between pitches watching him play with his batting gloves. Thank god this Nomar does not do that.

Nomar Mazara has been quite the sensation since being called up, rather quickly I might add. He has a .390 wOBA versus RHP and is only striking out 14.3 percent of the time. He is also red hot batting .333 over the last seven days with one HR. Lance McCullers has to be the unluckiest player in the world coming off the DL to face the red hot Red Sox and then the Texas Rangers. His price is extremely deflated across the industry for some reason so take advantage of it.

Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles (.244 Avg., 5 HR) $3,200 FD $3,800 DK

As earlier mentioned I like me some Orioles bats tonight in Anaheim. Three guys stand out, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, and of course Adam Jones. Although he has not shown it this season historically he crushes LHP. Regardless he is getting warm batting .269 with two doubles and two HR over the last seven days. His price is still low on FanDuel where over on DraftKings I think you can do better tonight for $3,800. Either way I will be using either Jones or Trumbo, I just prefer Jones.

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Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics (.233 Avg., 12 HR) $3,600 FD $3,900 DK

Let’s get back to picking on the overweight CC Sabathia. Khris Davis has a .376 wOBA versus LHP and is batting .240 over the last seven days with five HR and 11 RBI. When looking for HR upside these are the types of numbers you look for facing pitchers who would be better in DXL commercials than sports.

Chris Owings, Arizona Diamondbacks (.285 Avg., 1 HR) $2,100 FD $3,200 DK

So you want to use Jake Arrieta but need a cheap punt play. Although I believe the struggling Carlos Martinez is due for a good outing Chris Owings on FanDuel for some reason is still only $2,100. He is batting .364 with one HR, three RBI, and one SB over the last seven days facing a pitcher who has surrendered five ER in his last 8 1/3 innings pitched. For the near minimum he has been consistently providing some fantasy output on a nightly basis.

Other outfielders

Gregory Polanco – Pittsburgh Pirates

Michael Conforto – New York Mets

Steve Pearce – Tampa Bay Rays

Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds

Ian Desmond – Texas Rangers

Ryan Rua – Texas Rangers

George Springer – Houston Astros

Stephen Piscotty – St. Louis Cardinals

Mark Trumbo – Baltimore Orioles

Kole Calhoun – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Rafael Ortega – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Trayce Thompson – Los Angeles Dodgers

Good luck tonight and it was great being back for the day. You can find me floating around the internet or read my work on here and at Fantasy Alarm.

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All card photos are from cards in my EBay store just click the link. I have almost 8000 positives and zero negatives..

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Jerry Colvin

So Called Fantasy Expert, writer at www.fantasyalarm.com, bar owner, father, husband, sports card investor, and in his spare time he answers questions for www.draftvalet.com.
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