You know it is not always as easy as people make it sound to win in Daily Fantasy Baseball. All the talk of playing in 50/50’s and Double-Ups can still lead to losing streaks. I have literally in the last seven days on Fanduel been less than a point out of my cash games each night. You want to talk about frustrating. To be honest the only thing I can think of more painful would maybe be lighting your hair on fire and putting it out with a hammer. I mean really.
You can spend hours of hard research to yield a lineup full of guys who go 3-for-5, all singles. Or, how about this scenario?
You check your phone at 7:30 to see a whole stat line of batters each with a big -.25 next to their name. I always find this scenario the most disheartening as in my experience on my best nights my batters come out of the gates on fire. I much prefer looking at my wife and saying, “Jennifer look at this, A.J. Pollock already has put up seven points in the first inning.”
Instead it feels more often like the conversation goes like this, “I can’t (insert expletive your choice here) believe I put that (Insert another expletive of your choice in here as well) in my line up tonight”.
So you say to yourself, “Hey, it’s OK. You cannot win every night. I will get them tomorrow night for sure.”
Sometime’s you are even foolish enough in the middle of a losing streak to tell yourself that you cannot possibly lose again tonight. This opens the door for the little devil on your shoulder to whisper in your ear, “Yes, join lots of tournaments tonight. Don’t stop at the $5 Rally. Go up, up, up. You are due for a big night.”
Then by 10:30 P.M. you start telling yourself, “It’s ok. I still got my family and that is the really important thing”.
If nothing else to lighten your mood.
But the truth is…you are like me. You want to win. So back at it tomorrow.
After three or four days of this you start to feel like you are reliving that old “Daily Affirmations” skit on Saturday Night Live. All the while in the back of your mind you are saying to yourself, “That 10 percent rule when it comes to bankroll management is expiring and if I do not turn it around tonight I will have to add money to my account.”
And then comes Taylor Jungmann. The kid has been electric right? Not only electric but cheap. Just as I am getting ready to hit the select button on Madison Bumgarner for the evening I decide that the Arizona bats are more important than spending up on old Madison. So I opt for Taylor Jungmann instead and save a few thousand. By nights end Madison Bumgarner puts up 24 points on Fanduel while Taylor Jungmann puts up 3.66. End result is coming in 51 out of 100 in cash games. This brings us to our Daily Fantasy Baseball tip of the day…
Daily Fantasy Baseball tip of the day
Always spend up on starting pitching. Especially on a one pitcher site like Fanduel. The pitcher is the core of your lineup and most of the time gives you the majority of your points. Save plays like Taylor Jungmann for tournaments. Now if I would just follow my own advice.
Making deposits is good for earning free-rolls but not for your wallet. If any of this is you, then I hope I can help pull you out of this today and bring you from 51 out of 100 to at least 49. With all this said let’s get to today’s action.
Today’s FanDuel Strategy
As usual we have the Wednesday split schedule. We are lucky enough today though to buy ourselves a little more time as the first game does not start until 3:40 P.M. Eastern. The five early games will prove the hardest to sniff out decent Starting Pitching in as none of the starters going in the slate are particularly impressive to me right now. On the night slate we have a whole bevy of great options to choose from. We have the red hot R.A. Dickey at home verse the struggling Oakland Athletics, Danny Salazar at home facing the faltering New York Yankees, and of course the whiz kid Jacob DeGrom facing the scorching hot Carlos Gonzalez and the Colorado Rockies.
Today we have six games with an expected point total of eight runs or more at the time of writing this article. They are:
- Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks 8.5
- Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays 8.5
- Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs 8.0
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim @ Chicago White Sox 8.5
- Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals 8.0
- Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins 9.0
Most of the other games feature premiere Starting Pitching and really I see no need to attack them when you have some scrubs going today.
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for Wednesday, August 12th
Raisel Iglesias (2-4, 4.73 ERA) – Does everyone remember at the start of the 2015 season when we were all talking about the new San Diego Padres? How they were going to be a heavy favorite to win the west? What happened? What always happens, it’s the San Diego Padres. They simply just stink. The San Diego Padres strike out 21.6% of the time and have a low .295 wOBA versus RHP. They also are 20th in Major League Baseball in home batting average hitting at a pathetic .244.
Now comes Raisel Iglesias. Over his last two games (Home verse Pittsburgh 8/1 and @Arizona 8/7) he has allowed 3 Earned Runs over 12.7 innings while striking out 11 batters. His is doing the one thing I look for in selecting Starting Pitching. He is getting better each start. He has gone from a 4.40 ERA over the last sixty days to a 2.13 ERA over the last fourteen days. He has a K/9 rate of 8.94 and faces “Big Lame” James Shields, which should aid him in a win. He gets a huge park shift today pitching in Petco Park and should have no problem taming the lowly Padres. He will be my Cash Game Starter on the early slate and I will be pairing him with Chris Heston on two pitcher sites.
Jacob DeGrom (10-6, 2.13 ERA) New York Mets – Before I sell you on how awesome Jacob DeGrom is I want to talk about the Colorado Rockies and the “Coors Field Effect”. So here are the numbers. The Colorado Rockies have a .341 wOBA verse RHP. They also have a home batting average of .301 and wOBA of .360. All of these are #1 in Major League Baseball. Notice this shift. On the road the Colorado Rockies are 29th in Major League Baseball in batting average at a laughable .238 and 27th in wOBA doing so a .290 clip. You add in the 19.6% strikeout rate verse RHP playing in a pitchers park like Citi Field and you get disaster. Now add in Jacob DeGrom.
I seem to have “My Guys”. You know, them players you find yourself taking over and over and over again. Jacob DeGrom is much like my Chris Colabello. I take him quite often. Tonight he is $1700 cheaper than Clayton Kershaw and gets a better match up. Jacob DeGrom has allowed two Earned Runs in each of his has last two starts while striking out fourteen batters over 12.3 innings. In fact DeGrom has only allowed six Earned Runs in has last five starts. He has a K/9 rate of 9.15, a WHIP of 0.89, a 94.9 MPH Fastball, and he also has my confidence to get it done. I will be using him in all cash games tonight.
Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Raisel Iglesias – Cincinnati Reds
- Chris Heston – San Francisco Giants
- Eduardo Rodriguez – Boston Red Sox
- Chase Anderson – Arizona Diamondbacks
- Jacob DeGrom – New York Mets
- Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers (He goes to #1 if Bryce Harper is out)
- Michael Wacha – St. Louis Cardinals
- Gerrit Cole – Pittsburgh Pirates
- Jake Odorizzi – Tampa Bay Rays
- Andrew Heaney – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Tournament Play)
Wellington Castillo (.254 Avg., 15 HR) Arizona Diamondbacks – I heard someone refer to Wellington Castillo as “Out of his Face” on the radio the other morning. A truer statement does not exist. Wellington Castillo over the last seven days has three Home Runs, eight RBI’s, and is batting .353. Today he faces Aaron Nola who up until now I believe is pitching above his means. Castillo gets the favorable park shift at home against a pitcher who has allowed five Earned Runs over his last 11.0 innings. He was rested last night and should be in the line up today batting around the five spot.
Chris Gimenez (.316 Avg., 1 HR) Texas Rangers – Without a doubt in my opinion the best option today at catcher is Kyle Schwarber. Try as I may I was unable to fit him into my line ups today with Jacob DeGrom and still get something in the end I considerable acceptable. So why not grab a guy playing in a game with the highest expected point total of the day (9.0). Chris Gimenez since getting the call has a .357 batting average with one Home Run over the last seven days. Tonight he faces Mike Pelfrey who allowed nine Earned Runs over his last 17.0 innings. He will bat towards the bottom of the order but still gets my nod.
Paul Goldschmidt (.337 Avg., 22 HR) Arizona Diamondbacks – Yes I am guilty. I love to make stacks in my line ups. Today’s premiere stack is the Arizona Diamondbacks. You cannot have a Diamondbacks stack without Paul Goldschmidt. As with the Mike Trouts and Clayton Kershaws of the world go Paul Goldschmidt certainly another player that if you do not already know how awesome he is then you need to play something else. With all this said he has not hit a Home Run over two weeks. Some say he is cold, I say he is due. I am all in on him today.
Prince Fielder (.327 Avg., 17 HR) Texas Rangers – The Texas Rangers tonight are my favorite stack of the night games. Prince Fielder is having a hell of a season. Remember when we were afraid to draft him because of his neck injury? Them people who stole him in the later rounds are laughing all the way to the First Baseman bank. Fielder has hit two Home Runs over the last seven days and is batting .364 verse RHP with a .405 wOBA. If it helps he is also batting .357 lifetime with three Home Runs off of Mike Pelfrey.
Robinson Cano (.268Avg., 12 HR) Seattle Mariners – Did you know that Kevin Gausman has surrendered eight Earned Runs over his last 12.7 innings? This hardly defines the term, “Quality Starts”. This is very hard to ignore. Guess who else as of late is hard to ignore? Robinson Cano. He is on fire right now batting .357 with one long ball over the last seven days. He has .342 wOBA verse RHP and should easily handle Kevin Gausman today.
Brian Dozier (.245 Avg., 24 HR) Minnesota Twins – This one seems easy. You have a horrible pitcher in Nick Martinez who allows 1.0/HR per 9 facing a great lead off Home Run hitter in Brian Dozier. He also allows more hits to Right Handed Bats (.298 Avg.) then Left (.226 Avg.) which we call “Reverse Splits”. Brian Dozier has been in a bit of slump lately batting .172 with one Home Run over the last seven days. We know from experience he is a better hitter than this. He is usually a guy you put in against lefties but I am still giving him my nod today.
Manny Machado (.300 Avg., 24 HR) Baltimore Orioles – The great thing about using a lesser priced Starting Pitcher is the benefit of loading your line up with the big bats you love to use. You know, guys like Manny Machado. He batting .300 verse right handed pitching with a .387 wOBA. He also red hot as of late batting .394 with a Home Run over the last seven days. Hitting lead off? How can you not use him.
Adrian Beltre (.257 Avg., 9 HR) Texas Rangers – Adrian Beltre has been something of a let down this year. The lefty masher we used to count on now has a lower batting average verse lefties than their right handed counter parts. He is also in a slump as of late batting only .207 with a one Home Run over the last seven. He does face the horrible Mike Pelfrey which always gives him a bump up and should bat clean up for cheap. On the positive he is 2-for-5 with one Home Run lifetime off of Mike Pelfrey. It’s a small sample but I will work with it.
Xander Bogaerts (.313 Avg., 3 HR) Boston Red Sox – Seems a common theme on our site is myself and the other writer’s picking Xander Bogaerts. He is becoming for the price the must play every time the Boston Red Sox face a left handed pitcher. He has a .411 wOBA and .387 batting average verse lefties. For a shortstop? What more can you ask for. He is slumping a bit only batting .233 over the last seven days but faces Adam Conley who is nothing special. I expect a breakout game today.
Alcides Escobar (.275 Avg., 2 HR) Kansas City Royals – To be honest this is a punt play. Alcides Escobar is the near minimum price today on Fanduel going for a measly $2300 batting lead off verse the young Daniel Norris. He has the potential to get on base a few times and maybe swipe a base for you.
David Peralta (.301 Avg., 11 HR) Arizona Diamondbacks – Wow! That is really all I can say right now about David Peralta. He has a .542 batting average with one Home Run and ten RBI’s over the last seven days. You combine this with his .386 wOBA verse right handed pitching and it spells another good day at the park for him and us lucky enough to play him. I am all in on him today or A.J. Pollock. Whichever you prefer.
Ender Enciarte (.292 Avg., 3 HR) Arizona Diamondbacks – This rounds out my D’back stack for the day. I expect Yasmani Tomas to get the day off and Ender Enciarte who has sat the last two games to get the start today. He is batting .314 facing right handed pitching with a .335 wOBA. Like his counterparts I expect him to have a big day at home batting lead off for the low price of $2600 on Fanduel.
Mitch Moreland (.290 Avg., 16 HR) Texas Rangers – I like guys batting in the five spot. I find way too often people target hitters in the clean up spot to no avail. Sometime’s Major League Baseball managers put slumping power hitters in the clean up spot (i.e. Adrian Beltre) and monsters hitters in the five spot to make pitchers throw strikes to the slumping hitter in the four spot. Mitch Moreland usually bats fifth. He has a .307 batting average and .386 wOBA with fourteen of his sixteen Home Runs off right handed pitching. Is this enough to convince you?
Shane Victorino (.239 Avg. 1 HR) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Did you know that right handed hitters are batting .313 verse John Danks. Did you also think I would write a Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks article and not get at least one bat in against Mr. Danks? I mean do not forget that John Danks is the measure we use to determine bad starting pitching. Shane Victorino is the near minimum to minimum price across the industry and historically hits lefties well (.303 lifetime). I am willing to take a chance on him today in a hitters park verse John Danks.
Other Outfielders to look at:
- A.J. Pollock
- Adam Jones
- Seth Smith
- Hunter Pence
- Hanley Ramirez (If he plays)
- David DeJesus
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Jose Bautista
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Chris Coughlan
- Mike Trout (Always)
- J.D. Martinez
- Alex Rios (I just like him)
- Aaron Hicks
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Cincinnati Reds
- Seattle Mariners
- New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Texas Rangers
- Minnesota Twins
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Los Angeles Dodgers
Well I guess that is all for today. I hope my picks win you and myself a few bucks tonight. See you next week for more Daily Fantasy Baseball picks.
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