Welcome back for another round of Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks. Daily Fantasy Baseball is a labor of love most of the time. Daily Fantasy Baseball also has so many variables in-play the most unpredictable sport to try and play. For instance, if you play Daily Fantasy Basketball and play Kevin Durant, you know that even on his worst night, his production will still be at the top or possibly even the leader in points for that night.
In Daily Fantasy Baseball, even the best hitter can be blanked on any given night giving you a big fat zero or negative score depending on which site you choose. There is at times no rhyme or reason to the things you see. Even the best players in Daily Fantasy Baseball can go on losing streaks for weeks. You can do all your research, look at all the angles, and then the game of Baseball laughs at you and John Danks turns into a stud. This is another reason why I preach so heavy on “Bankroll Management.” So do not be discouraged if you go on a losing streak. Which brings us to our Daily Fantasy Baseball tip of the week.
“Never change your level of play.” If you play $10 each evening and go on a losing streak, DO NOT lower it and start playing $5. Trust me, when you come off your losing streak and hit you will be very, very, very, upset that you did this.
Before we get into my picks for today, I would like to just clear something up. We all write with different styles and research and attack Daily Fantasy Baseball with different tactics in mind. When writing this article, I do not even start it until 4 A.M. the day its due because the Over / Under set by Las Vegas is always my starting point for offense. It is just my process of research.
Therefore, some days this might not go live until 10 A.M., so I am sorry for this but statistical details are extremely important to me and this takes time. I tried writing this on Tuesday’s and ran into a huge problem of it interfering with my process for my Tuesday play. Wednesday is one of the hardest days to write content for due to the split schedule between day and night games. So bear with me please, good things are worth waiting for. Let’s begin with today’s Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks.
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks For Wednesday, 7-22-2015
Today we have five games at the time of writing with an O/U of 8.5 or more and a whole group of them at 8.0. I see no reason to select any batters outside of these games tonight.
Today’s pitching slate is not very pretty. I see a lot of great pitchers in bad match-ups. I love Noah Syndergaard, but The Washington Nationals and Bryce Harper scare me in cash games. He will get you strikeouts, but could give up five runs. I also started off looking at Lance Lynn, Mike Bolsinger, Jose Fernandez, and Sonny Gray, but found things in my research that turned me off of using them in cash games today. All great options, just options I will pass on.
The safest options in the early slate are clearly Jordan Zimmerman or Jake Odorizzi. I project them to give you around the same numbers today both facing horrible offenses in the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies. I honestly see no easy pick in the night slate. All the top tier pitchers face great offenses tonight, and another rule of thumb in my research is never pick on great offenses.
Jordan Zimmerman (8-5, 3.27 ERA) Washington Nationals – I was on the ropes today between choosing Jordan Zimmerman or Jake Odorizzi. They both face horrible offenses in the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies. They both have similar K/9 rates (Zimmerman 6.54 / Odorizzi 7.17), and both have had mediocre seasons so far. But my model rates Zimmerman higher for the following reasons:
Today, Jordan Zimmerman gets to meet the Mets who have a .238 Batting Average and low .290 wOBA verse RHP. They are 12th in Major League Baseball in strikeouts versus RHP, doing so at a rate 20.2%. He gets a great park shift today as Nationals Park is 25th in home runs (0.795) and 28th in runs scored (0.774). He has racked up 15 strikeouts over his last 16.0 innings pitched against two good offenses in the Los Angeles Dodgers 7/17 and Baltimore Orioles 7/11. He has a home ERA of 2.40 and is pennies more than Odorizzi, and Las Vegas has him a slight favorite at -119. I will be using Zimmerman in all early slate cash games.
John Danks (5-8, 4.98 ERA) Chicago White Sox – I really should have my head examined sometimes. I mean John Danks? I must be crazy. Here is thing, maybe I am. I am not a lottery ticket kind of guy. I have the belief if I am going to lose money, I would rather have some say in the matter. For this reason, I would rather put money on John Danks than a scratch ticket. Check the odds, I am sure it has to be better for Danks. It seems every-time I stack against him, he turns into Nolan Ryan. When I lay off of him he becomes, well … John Danks. He is that guy we use as a measure for bad pitchers. So why would I even play him in an elite tournament play? Here is why.
Tonight he faces the St. Louis Cardinals. This is the team you fear right? Yes, right as in versus RHP. Versus LHP they have a team batting average of .232 and low .295 wOBA. They also are third in Major League Baseball in strikeouts versus LHP, doing so at an enticing rate of 24.0%. John Danks averages 6.27 K/9, which spells potential. He also has a lower ERA at home. There is not a lot to say here. This is an elite tournament play or possible pairing on two pitcher site. I would not put your kids college fund into double-ups on John Danks, but I would take a shot for a few bucks.
I am excluding hitters from Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres because they are not available in most slates.
Kyle Schwarber (.410 Avg., 3 HR) Chicago Cubs – This seems like a gimme? He is low priced around the industry still and bats at the top of the order. He is absolutely smashing the ball. He is batting .471 with two HRs over the last seven days and has an amazing .535 wOBA versus RHP. He gets a huge park shift at the “Great American Small Park” facing Mike Leake. I am all in on him today.
Victor Martinez (.268 Avg., 6 HR) Detroit Tigers – Here is another guy you always play when facing a LH pitcher. He has a .420 Average and .449 wOBA versus lefties and will more than likely bat clean up. His price is not too inflated on both the big sites and he is playing in a game with a projected run total of nine. He also faces Mike Montgomery who has surrendered four HR’s in his last 16.7 innings. He will be my guy in the night slate.
Anthony Rizzo (.288 Avg., 16 HR) Chicago Cubs – Rizzo has been slumping a bit of late. He has a .222 average over the last seven days with zero HRs. I expect this to change today. He gets the platoon advantage today in Cincinnati and a huge ball park shift. He has an .386 wOBA versus RHP and the ability to put up two HRs on any given day. I will be using Rizzo today in all my cash games.
Albert Pujols (.262 Avg., 29 HR) Los Angeles Angels – Did you ever think that Albert Pujols would have 29 HRs? Here is a guy that everyone had pegged for being washed up. He showed us and I am glad he did. I like Pujols. The guy remained the mark of excellence during one of the darkest times in Baseball history. The P.E.D. era. Kudos to you Albert.
Over the last 7 days he has a .348 average with three HRs, hits for a higher average at home, and .394 wOBA versus RHP. He faces Mike Pelfrey tonight who has allowed seven earned runs over his last 11.7 innings and does not miss many RHB.
Jason Kipnis (.328 Avg., 6 HR) Cleveland Indians – I usually try to save on this position. I find that most of the time you do not get your return for the cost. Today for the day slate is different. Today I will build my line up around Jason Kipnis. He has a .364 average and .429 wOBA versus RHP and today he gets a huge park shift in Milwaukee hitting lead off facing Kyle Lohse who has a 8.06 home ERA and has allowed six runs over his last 10.0 innings.
Robinson Cano (.260 Avg., 9 HR) Seattle Mariners – Wow! Talk about really picking it up as a late. Here is a guy we all pegged for done and now … BOOM! He’s back. He has hit three HRs in the last seven days. Tonight he faces Anibal Sanchez who has pitched slightly better as of late, if you call allowing five earned runs over his last 12.3 innings good. I don’t. For the price and line up spot, I will be using Cano tonight in all cash games in a game with an expected point total of 9.0 (The highest of the night).
Evan Longoria (.263 Avg., 9 HR) Tampa Bay Rays – If you want to get guys like Kipnis in your day line up, you have to save somewhere. It just so happens due to his recent slump, where he is batting a measly .077 in the last seven days, Evan Longoria has a very low price across the industry. We know this current trend will not continue because he is who he is. He is batting .338 overall this season versus LHP with a wOBA of .379. For the price and the line up spot (he hits clean up quite often), he will be my choice in all cash games today.
Trevor Plouffe (.256 Avg., 12 HR) Minnesota Twins – Miguel Sano would have been my choice today as a great value play, but I doubt he will play due to his recent ankle sprain. But that is fine because we still have one of the best third baseman to choose from against LHP in Trevor Plouffe. Tonight he faces C.J. Wilson who has been pitching better as of late, but guys like him lack consistency which makes him due for a “bad start.” For the low price and great line up spot (another clean up hitter), I will be plugging him into my line ups.
Francisco Lindor (.238 Avg., 2 HR) Cleveland Indians – For some reason while trying to write this pick, my internet keeps going down. You do not feel it, but I have spent an hour this morning waiting for my internet to work to finish this pick. Three times I went to save it and lost it when my connection “timed out” and had to re-write it. Is this a sign?
Truth be told I see no great option at this position today so I am “punting’ it in the form of Francisco Lindor. He gets Kyle Lohse, who would be better at taking fast food orders than pitching. He is near the minimum across the industry and has picked it up as of late going 9-for-31 in the last seven days. With all this said, I hope I do not have to write this again.
Adeiny Hechavarria (.280 Avg., 4 HR) Florida Marlins – This is perhaps the greatest value play of the night. Here you have a guy that has a .386 average versus LHP facing a yound Lefty in the form of Robbie Ross in a hitters park. For the minimum to near minimum price across the industry, this seems like an easy one.
Michael Brantley (.295 Avg., 6 HR) Cleveland Indians – As you can see, I am going Indians heavy today. This is the best stack in my opinion on the day slate. Michael Brantley gets the platoon advantage against Kyle Lohse in a great hitters park. He has a .354 wOBA versus RHP and a .293 average with high upside.
Chris Coghlan (.252 Avg. 9 HR) Chicago Cubs – Easy. He is batting .333 with one HR over the last seven days and gets the platoon advantage against Mike Leake in a great hitters park. He is near minimum price and just to make him more alluring, he is 9-for-13 off of Leake with two HRs.
Torii Hunter (.253 Avg., 14 HR) Minnesota Twins – I just cannot escape the feeling that C.J. Wilson is due for a bad outing. That is what is drawing me to Torii Hunter. He hits in a great line up spot. I am not going to lie, the numbers are not great. This one we will call my “gut call” of the week. I will be using him.
J.D. Martinez (.287 Avg., 27 HR) Detroit Tigers – Holy expletive! This guy will not let up. He really is at the point where he is a must play everyday until he cools off. He has 14 HRs in the last thirty days. That is almost a HR every other day. He bats .271 versus LHP with an incredible .449 wOBA. This is the guy I will be building my night line up around.
- Jorge Soler
- Yasiel Puig
- Jay Bruce
- Brandon Moss
- Ryan Braun
- Brett Gardner
- Seth Smith
- Nelson Cruz
- Andrew McCutchen
- Kole Calhoun
- Cleveland Indians
- Chicago Cubs
- Milwaukee Brewers
- New York Yankees
- Detroit Tigers
- Seattle Mariners
- Baltimore Orioles
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago White Sox
Thanks everyone and best of luck with your Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks.
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