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Now that we are passed the midway point in the Major League Baseball season you will start to notice a drop off in the amount of players on the various sites. The reason is this; at this point the newbies have all decided they are done losing for the season and are preparing for Fantasy Football.

Now when you play you are playing the veterans and die-hards and people like myself who do this everyday. Basically, the free ride is over. It only gets harder from here. So here is my tip of the week…

With 15 games to choose from on most days I do not take hitters that are facing good pitchers. Way to often I get a head-to-head challenge sent to me to find the guy who challenged me is stacking against Max Scherzer. I mean, really? You serious?

Keep in mind, and you can ask my friend Brian, I will throw a few bucks on a contrarian stack against Clayton Kershaw knowing it is a 1-in-10,000 long shot just like I will take John Danks in a good match up.

I love a little risk — in tournaments — not head to heads, 50/50s, Steps, and Double-ups. It does not make any sense to take risk in these. They are called “cash” games because they are the easy wins to finance and grow your bankroll. So, remember this:

  • Tournaments – Games where you take a little risk to try and bump yourself up by hitting on a low owned players.
  • Cash Games – Safe picks designed to get you above the required 50% to cash out.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for Wednesday, July 29

As usual on Wednesday we have a split schedule. We have 6 games on a day slate and 9 games on the night slate. Today I will give you a player for each slate to help you out. The afternoon slate today is pretty blah if you ask me. We got good starting pitching in every game except the Brewers @ Giants which still does not offer much in the way of expected offense.

Actually, the highest O/U of the afternoon is a measly 7.5. So here is the strategy I would employ today. If you choose to play in a slate that includes all 15 games today then avoid all these early games and play like you are doing so in the night only. A lot of people will put the majority of their players in from the early games for the purpose of watching the early games. Silly but true.

This will leave you to be that guy who still has his whole lineup left to play at 7 P.M. while half the field is done or almost done and have scored little for points due to the little offense offered in the early games. Advantage you. Just keep in mind that on some sites your line up locks at the start of the first game and you cannot change it. So make sure you are on top of who should play. After awhile this becomes pretty easy, trust me.

Starting Pitching

I love the pitching slate today. You have Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, Francisco Liriano, Jon Lester (Who I like to pick on), Felix Hernandez, Masahiro Tanaka, Lance McCullers, Garrett Richards, And Clayton Kershaw all on the hill today. So…I would not take any batters facing any of these guys today in cash games. Except maybe Lester (See previous posts). Think about it…why would you?

Francisco Liriano (6-6, 2.91 ERA) Pittsburgh Pirates – In the early slate today I see lots of good starting pitching facing great offenses that either do not strikeout a lot or carry such heavy risk that it is a little tough. I am opting in this situation for the traveling Francisco Liriano facing the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are an odd team. You never can quite peg what they are up to offensively which makes you want to bang your head against a wall sometimes trying to decide on whether or not to attack them. The Twins have a batting average of .256 verse LHP and .335 wOBA at home. This makes them a risky play but the way I see it we have huge risk everywhere and this one scares me the least. If playing on a two pitcher sites use two pitchers on the night slate.

So why Francisco Liriano, well let me tell you. Liriano on the road this year has an 2.00 ERA over 54.0 innings pitched. In his last two outings at home verse the Cardinals on 7/12 and Nationals on 7/23 he only allowed 3 runs over 12.3 inning pitched while striking out 17 batters. Although he had a better park shift in Pittsburgh he also faced two better offenses than the Twins in my opinion. The Twins still strikeout 19.4% of the time verse LHP and Liriano has 10.14/K9 rate and has an elite WHIP of 1.03. I can see lots of punch outs today. He will be my choice for the afternoon slate in cash games today.

Clayton Kershaw (8-6, 2.51 ERA) – Are people actually still saying he does not have it this year? If you know me then you know I bleed Dodger Blue. Have my whole life. It is my one weakness in Daily Fantasy Baseball. I often find myself trying to force a Dodger bat into my line up for my enjoyment well watching the Dodger game. Which ask my wife, I do everyday at her dismay. It does not take a Baseball genius to look at the slate tonight see who to take in cash games. Clayton Kershaw. I should not have to tell you how awesome he is because if you do not know this already you probably would be better served putting your hard earned money into something more productive. But just in-case you have not noticed Clayton Kershaw is facing the Oakland athletics who are 29th in Major League Baseball in Strikeouts doing so at a rate of 16.8%. This is low. I will admit this. I will also say this, Clayton Kershaw has a K/9 rate of 11.89 and has racked up 25 strikeouts over his last 17.0 innings pitched against the Mets and Nationals while allowing zero earned runs. Vegas has him almost a -300 favorite. I do not care what team you are or how much you strikeout when you face Clayton Kershaw, especially at home, you should rest your stars to save what confidence they have. Go Kershaw today or get left behind.

Catcher

Kyle Schwarber (.352 Avg., 3 HR) Chicago Cubs – I love the Cubs today as my main stack besides the Yankees tonight. They face Eddie Butler who stinks at home, and stinks slightly less on the road. He is by far the worst pitcher on the board in the early slate in my opinion and does not strikeout many batters. In fact he has only struck out 10 in his last 23.3 innings. This should help out the Cubs high strikeout rate. Kyle Schwarber still remains hot (a little slow down due to the LHP he faced this week) and Eddie Butler does not miss many LHB. He has a .415 batting average and .504 wOBA verse RHP. This is an easy one.

Brian McCann (.250 Avg., 15 HR) New York Yankees – I have mentioned before this is my go to guy a lot nights at catcher. Tonight he faces a flyball pitcher in a hitters park down in Texas. McCann has a .252 batting average, .340 wOBA, and 11 Home Runs off of RHP. He has slumped as of late going 2 for his last 14 at the plate, but I expect him to bounce back against Colby Lewis who has pitched beyond his means as of late. I look for the Yankees to light him up tonight making them a great stacking option as well.

First Baseman 

Carlos Santana (225 Avg., 11 HR) Cleveland Indians – This might be the first time I have played Carlos Santana all season. I try to avoid the Pedro Alvarez type and that is what you get with Carlos Santana. Today he will either light up the board or go 0-for-4. Here is thing, Jeremy Guthrie has allowed 7 Runs over his last 12 innings. You add that with Santana’s .353 wOBA verse RHP and you have a possible “double-dong” day. (Two Home Runs) Also if you like BVP Santana is 11-for-25 lifetime off Guthrie with 2 Home Runs. *Note He may be Catcher eligible depending on which site you play on.

Jose Abreu (.296 Avg., 16 HR) Chicago White Sox – Rick Porcello. Should be spelled Rick Poorfello, because he is going to get rocked tonight by the White Sox. Tonight he gets to face Mr. Jose Abreu (Who I am a big fan of). Abreu is 12 Hits, 2 Home Runs, and 9 RBI’s over his last 27 at bats. Incase you are lazy that is a .444 average. He also has .363 wOBA verse RHP and is under priced around the industry. I am all in on him again tonight.

Second Baseman 

Jason Kipnis (.296 Avg., 16 HR) Cleveland Indians – A second baseman with 16 Home Runs at this point in the season is something special. To find one that has a .369 Batting Average and ridiculous .432 wOBA verse RHP facing Jeremy Guthrie in Cleveland seems easy. Kipnis is also batting .360 over the last seven days and has a positive history against Guthrie. 11-for-25 with 2 Home Runs. I will be building my day line up around Kipnis hitting lead off today.

Dee Gordon (.341 Avg., 33 SB) Florida Marlins – Why SB instead of HR? Simple, all the upside here is in Gordon’s ability to get on base and steal them. Tonight he faces Doug Fister who as allowed a ton of base runners and 8 earned runs over his last 10.0 innings. I look for Gordon to be on base and often which gives him a huge upside. He also has a .328 batting average and .332 wOBA verse RHP. I will be using him in all my cash games this evening.

Third Baseman

Kris Bryant (251 Avg., 14 HR) Chicago Cubs – I like Kris Bryant but lets face it, the hype is cooling off like his bat has. That is if you call hitting 2 Home Runs in the last seven days “cooled off”. But for real, he is struggling and gets the horrible Eddie Butler at home. Bryant still has a .352 wOBA verse RHP and his pricing is down across the industry due to his low batting average as of late, .192 over the last thirty days. I look for him to have a come back game today and I will be using him in all my cash games as well.

Alex Rodriguez (.279 Avg., 24 HR) New York Yankees – The Yankees are my favorite stack of the evening and Alex Rodriguez is my favorite Third Baseman tonight as well. Did I just say that? Wow, who would have thought. Anyway we discussed Colby Lewis earlier and Alex Rodriguez has huge potential tonight. He is batting .320 with 5 home runs over the last 7 days and smashes RHP with a .375 wOBA. His price is fair. He bats in a great spot in a hitters park. What is not to like?

Shortstop

Starlin Castro (.237 Avg., 5 HR) Chicago Cubs – Another Cub? More like a minimum priced shortstop facing a horrible pitcher. If you check the early slate I do not see any great match up or any shortstop for that matter I like. Why not punt? And if so why not punt to player with the potential to have a great game? Castro has them now and again. Why not today. I am not even going to throw up numbers here for Starlin Castro because well, they stink. I will be going feast or famine with him in all my early line ups as part of my Cubs stack.

Troy Tulowitzki (300 Avg., 12 HR) Toronto Blue Jays – Call me silly but I just have to play him tonight. He is going to have a huge game, I can feel it. He has a .335 wOBA verse RHP and moves from a great hitters park in Colorado to a great hitters park in Toronto. He is also facing Jerome Williams with a 8.05 road ERA. I will be using him tonight with all the value in the Outfield on the board this evening.

Outfield

Nelson Cruz (.309 Avg., 26 HR) Seattle Mariners – Nelson Cruz has a .378 batting average and .482 wOBA verse LHP. He is facing Patrick Corbin today who has 7.20 road ERA. This is coming from a pitcher who pitches at home in Arizona. Think about it. You can also add in Mark Trumbo who is also deadly verse LHP and near minimum priced. This is too easy.  I will be all in on Cruz and Trumbo today in all formats in the early slate.

Chris Coglan (.254 Avg., 11 HR) Chicago Cubs – This rounds out my Cubs stack today. Coglan has a .351 wOBA and .265 Average verse RHP and has picked it up as of late batting .294 with 2 home runs over his last 7 days. He usually bats in a great line up spot and is cheap around the industry. Oh, and again facing the wonderful Eddie Butler.

Chris Colabello (.313 Avg., 9 HR) Toronto Blue Jays – I play this guy all the time. He is cheap around the industry and keeps hitting. He is has a .315 batting average and .359 wOBA verse RHP. He gets Jerome Williams who I still cannot believe they let pitch. I mean, he has allowed 2 home runs just in his last 6.0 innings and it does not get any better from there. I will be on Colabello in all formats tonight.

Brett Gardner (.297 Avg., 11 HR) New York Yankees – As I stated earlier the Yankees are my favorite stack tonight. Brett Gardner besides having a .301 batting average and .377 wOBA verse RHP can also steal bases. You combine all this and it spells huge upside facing a horrible pitcher like Colby Lewis. His price is high but if you play the values you should easily fit him and Clayton Kershaw in your line up tonight. It’s time for the Rangers to meet the Gardner.

Other Outfielders to look at

  • Michael Brantley
  • Brandon Moss
  • Jorge Soler
  • Dexter Fowler
  • Gerrardo Parra
  • Jose Bautista
  • Kevin Pillar
  • Adam Eaton
  • Cameron Maybin
  • Angel Pagan
  • Joc Pederson
  • Andre Ethier

Stacks

  • Cleveland Indians
  • Chicago Cubs
  • Toronto Blue Jays
  • New York Yankees
  • Boston Red Sox
  • Chicago White Sox

Contrarian Stacks

  • Tampa Bay Rays
  • Seattle Mariners
  • Atlanta Braves
  • New York Mets
  • Los Angeles Dodgers

Good luck with your Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for Wednesday! Go Dodgers!!!

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Jerry Colvin

So Called Fantasy Expert, writer at www.fantasyalarm.com, bar owner, father, husband, sports card investor, and in his spare time he answers questions for www.draftvalet.com.
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