Who is Jerry Colvin? Well that’s what I would be saying if I was logging into this fine website to get my Daily Fantasy Baseball picks and seen this guy. So who am I? I can answer that for you…I am no one. I am husband, a father, A business owner, Sports Card Collector, and absolute Daily Fantasy Sports junkie.
Also check out the hitter’s with the most extreme platoon splits for Wednesday.
I can’t brag about all the big tournaments I have taken down because the truth is I have never taken down any huge tournament. I prefer small single entry tournaments and that is where I put my money when playing that route. If it helps, I have won some of them. My goal when playing season to season is playing as much as I can without ever putting any money in. This my friends I am pretty good at. Let’s face it, who can afford to lose money?
Daily Fantasy Sports, especially Baseball can be difficult. It is a labor of love at times. Especially when you wake up after putting in over a $100 in entries to get the email saying “Congratulations Jerry Colvin you won $9.00 in last night’s contests”. It makes you want to put your head in the pillow and cry yourself back to sleep. The positive part is if I was playing that amount it means I had $1000 to start with so thing’s have been good.
My strategy is to never play more than 10% of my bankroll on any given night or slate, so at worst I would have nine more days or at least chances after a loss to win again and get my bankroll back up. That is my tip for this week. I will give you another next week. So with all this hooplah being said I cannot see the future but I am pretty good at weeding out the absolute horrible plays from the good one’s. So let’s get started.
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for Wednesday, July 1, 2015
Today’s slate is pretty ugly Starting Pitcher wise. You got what appears to be a schedule full of No. 3 and No. 4 starters battling each other. I believe there are tons of options in today’s slate batter wise so why mess around?
Jonny Cueto (4-5, 2.98 ERA) Cincinnati Reds – Johnny Cueto is at home today against the Minnesota Twins who currently have a strikeout rate of 20.0% verse RHP. It is notable to mention they also have a .297 wOBA verse RHP and are currently last in Major League Baseball in away Batting Average hitting at a clip of .221. I know what you are thinking, “Yeah, but he is home at the Great American Small Park”. This is true. It is also true that Johnny Cueto has had a home ERA of less than 2.00 for the last three seasons (2013 – 1.91, 2014 – 1.71, & 2015 – 1.74). He carries an above average K/9 rate of 8.57 against a team that strikes out a lot, he throws a 92 MPH fastball, and has an elite WHIP of 0.94. He should also get plenty of run support which is always nice for the win. Las Vegas also agrees as the Reds are the highest favorite on the board today at -190. You have to use him in cash games today on one pitcher sites or risk falling out of the loop. I mean really? What is not to love in this match up?
Chris Heston (8-5, 3.73 ERA) San Francisco Giants – Chris Heston is currently one of the most undervalued players in Daily Fantasy Sports. Did you know that over his last six starts he has given up ZERO Home Runs. He has pitched 37.7 innings allowing 10 Earned Runs and 30 Hits while striking out 36 batters and has not given up a long ball since May 23 at Colorado when he surrendered three of them over 5.2 innings. On a night like tonight with questionable starting pitching all over the board, I will take these numbers for the price. He faces a team, in the Marlins, that is eighth in Major League Baseball in strikeouts vs. RHP doing so at a rate of 21.0%. He also goes from a great pitchers park in San Francisco to another great pitchers park in Miami, which is currently 25th in Major League baseball allowing 0.862 Runs and 29th in Home Runs allowing 0.565.
They have no Giancarlo Stanton (and by the way if you’re curious about what is going on with him you can read a great article right here: “So-Called” Injury Report: Stanton on the Edge). They have no Martin Prado who is also on the DL and they have little else in the way of offense besides maybe Dee Gordon stealing some bases. The Marlins after all only had a wOBA against RHP of .288 with Giancarlo Stanton and Martin Prado and home batting average of .255. This makes Heston the clear choice for a value play or to pair on a two pitcher site with Johnny Cueto hint, hint.
So Catcher can be a tricky position at times. I find you very rarely get what you pay for when you spend up. I will often depending on matchup “Punt” the position and look for a boom or bust play.
Brian McCann (.269 Avg., 12 HR) New York Yankees – I have to be honest here. I often take Brian McCann when he faces RHP. He is usually a fair price and bats in a favorable spot in the line up most nights (Somewhere in the 3 to 5 spot). He has a .363 wOBA verse RHP and carries a .276 Batting Average with 9 Home Runs. He gets the platoon edge verse Matt Shoemaker, who has been less than Fantasy-worthy this year.
Wellington Castillo (.210 Avg., 6 HR) Arizona Diamondbacks – If you do not feel like spending up on Brian McCann or one of the other top tier catchers you might want to take a look at Wellington Castillo. He carries an incredible .436 wOBA verse LHP and gets the matchup against Lefty Brett Anderson in a favorable ball park. Big bat + Cheap Price = Great Value Play.
Have you ever noticed that First Base is that position that on most night’s is easiest to fill. It actually drives me a little nuts sometimes. Tonight is no different.
Paul Goldschmidt (.352 Avg., 20 HR) Arizona Diamondbacks – You know who left-handed pitchers often talk about during their therapy sessions? Paul Goldshcmidt. This guy absolutely mashes LHP with an incredible .486 wOBA., OPS of 1.158, and home batting average of .352. Tonight he faces lefty Brett Anderson. This is an elite matchup for an elite hitter in a hitter’s park. Now, I will make this clear, I do believe Batter Verse Pitcher or BvP has a use is some cases as a tie-breaker in a tough decision. In this one Goldy is 7-for-11 with two home runs lifetime off Brett Anderson.
Adam Lind (.292 Avg., 11 HR) Milwaukee Brewers – Adam Lind is always a great value play at this position and today is no different. He is facing a fly-ball Pitcher in the form of Aaron Harang and it’s getting warmer out. Adam Lind also has a wOBA of .383 verse RHP and Batting Average of .301. He is red hot, batting over .400 in his last seven days.
Jimmy Paredes (.321 Avg., 9 HR) Baltimore Orioles – I don’t like Nick Martinez. I am one of those that believe he is achieving way beyond his means and sooner or later he will come crashing back to earth. Tonight is that night. Jimmy Parades is 0 for 7 in his last two games. But, he also has a .389 wOBA vs. RHP and he’s at home where he has a .313 Avg. and 5 HR. He usually bats at the top of the order and is fair priced around the industry. Sign me up
Enrique Hernandez (.250 Avg., 3 HR) Los Angeles Dodgers – Did the new guy just say Enrique Hernandez? Yes, that is what I said. This is a great value play if he makes it into the line up tonight which I believe he will facing LHP in the form of Robbie Ray. He usually is minimum priced and has a .422 wOBA and .333 Avg. verse LHP. Worth a flyer? Yesssssssss.
Have you noticed this position is matchup orientated? This guys hits LHP, this guy hits RHP, not many hit both.
Todd Frazier (.289 Avg., 24 HR) Cincinnati Reds – .404 … that is the wOBA against RHP for Todd Frazier. Tonight he is home in a great hitter’s park in Cincinnati, where he has a .348 Avg. with 15 HRs, facing Trevor May. All in on Frazier.
Mike Moustakas (.317 Avg., 7 HR) Kansas City Royals – The “Moose is loose in Houston”, that is what you will hear tonight for a call he when starts knocking the cover off the ball. Tonight he is in a great hitter’s park in Houston, facing a rookie pitcher in the form of Vincent Velasquez. I know it is difficult at times to cash in on the Kansas City bats as they tend to spread the offense around, but he usually bats high in the order for a cheap price. The “Moose” gets no respect with a .392 wOBA vs. RHP and .336 Batting Average with 5 home runs on the road.
This is always the volatile position on the slate to fill. It seems you have a few elite players and then a steep drop into a dark abyss. With this in mind I have come to the conclusion tonight is a night to look for value at the SS position so I am giving you two value plays.
Nick Ahmed (.233 Avg., 5 HR) Arizona Diamondbacks – Fact, Nick Ahmed has two Home Runs in the last seven days. Once again you have a guy at home in a great hitter’s park facing what I consider to be mediocre pitching (Brett Anderson). He has a .401 wOBA vs. LHP with a .333 Avg. and 2 Home Runs. Low price and a high expected run total of 8.5 puts me all in tonight on this play.
Wilmer Flores (.238 Avg. 10 HR) New York Mets – I have to be honest, when other guys are taking Jon Lester I am trying to pick on him. I am not a bully, but if me and Lester were on a playground I probably would. I didn’t like him in Boston, I don’t like him Chicago. You know who else does not like Jon Lester? The New York Mets. In his last outing against them on 5/11 at home, he gave up 5 Hits, 3 Earned Runs, 2 HR, and 4 walks over 6 innings while striking out 6. Flores usually bats in a good spot for a minimum price. Did I mention he has a .372 wOBA verse LHP?
You know on most evening 10 minutes before lineup lock I always seem to play the let’s swap the outfielders game. Usually with regret as it always seems the guy I took out at the last minute hits two home runs. Yes, I am talking about you yesterday Mitch Moreland. I just didn’t think you had it in you to do it again. With that said let’s begin the arduous task of selecting some outfielders.
Mike Trout (.300 Avg., 20 HR) Los Angeles Angels – I was just about to put a bunch of numbers and statistics here to show you awesome Mike Trout is. Then it hit me, if you do not already know this, then turn off your computer and go watch some Baseball. He is the best player and anytime he faces a pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi and you can afford him, play him. Oh, he is also 4-for-8 lifetime against Eovaldi and has a wOBA of .407 verse RHP if it helps. Sorry, just could not help myself.
Josh Reddick (.287 Avg., 11 HR) Oakland Athletics – More often than not, Colorado pitching is horrible away from Coors field as well. Tonight Chad Bettis gets to face Josh Reddick in Oakland. Reddick is batting .327 with 10 HR and has a .400 wOBA vs. RHP and if you look at his Home/Road splits, his Batting Average is .40 points higher at home. He usually bats cleanup and is fair priced around the industry, making him a fine option tonight.
Scott Van Slyke (.262 Avg., 2 HR) Los Angeles Dodgers – One thing you should know about me. I am a huge Dodgers fan. I am that guy with the Dodgers tattoo on his arm. The memorabilia taking up wall space in his house. Where most would have family photos, my family looks at photos of Duke Snider, Pee Wee Reese, Gil Hodges, etc. Knowing the Dodgers such as I do, I also know this, Scott Van Slyke crushes lefties. He has a Batting Average of .300 with 2 Home Runs and an incredible .433 wOBA verse LHP. He is cheap, he should play, you should play him.
Other Outfielders to look at:
- Jose Bautista
- Alex Gordon
- Jason Heyward
- Yasiel Puig.
Outfield Value Plays:
- Mark Canha
- Chris Parmalee
- Chris Coghlan
- Juan Lagares
- Gregor Blanco
- David Murphy
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Cincinnati Reds
- New York Yankees
- New York Mets
- San Francisco Giants
- Cleveland Indians
Well I guess I am done. If you ever have any Daily Fantasy Sports Questions you can find me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73 or drop me an email at: TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com.
Good Luck Tonight. Hopefully my Daily Fantasy Baseball picks will get you headed in the right direction.
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