It must be Wednesday again because here I am to provide my Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for July 8, 2015. It is hard to believe we are this far into the season already. The All-Star game is next week. This means we have reached the half way point. This is the time of year where it seems Football starts to become the talk and Baseball fades away for most of us. Well not me, I love Baseball. From Opening Day to the end of the season I play everyday, every slate, so let’s get started.
Wednesday can be a tricky day in Daily Fantasy Baseball as you always seem to have a few day games. Most sites split the slate up into an “Early” and “Late” slate but if you look and insist on playing in an “All Day” slate, be sure to pick players you are reasonably sure will play. Trust me, there is nothing worse than finding out at Line Up Lock that you have no Catcher.
On a day with a full Fifteen game slate, I find the best strategy is to attack the games with the highest expected point total set by the gods in Las Vegas. These guys have been setting these lines for years and are very good at it. I try to target games with an Over/Under of 8.0 or more. Yes, this was your tip for this week. Do not attack games with low expected point totals, they give you just the same more often than not.
I really lucked out today. There are four games tonight with an expected point total of 9 or greater. You have:
- Arizona @ Texas Rangers 9.5
- Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox 9.0
- Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox 9.0
- Los Angels Angels of Anaheim @ Colorado Rockies 11.0.
I see no need to target batters tonight outside of these in cash games unless you have no choice due to salary relief. Just keep a close eye on the weather situation in Colorado before using the players in this game.
Let’s get to the Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks.
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for Wednesday, July 8th, 2015
Before we begin, I just want to say the best Pitcher on the board today is Clayton Kershaw facing the Philadelphia Phillies. Although the Phils are 13th in the Major Leagues in wOBA verse LHP (.314), they are still facing Clayton Kershaw who is dominating and gets the positive park shift in Dodger Stadium. I will be using him myself in most cash games. But, if you would like to try and save a few bucks, or are playing on a two pitcher site, then maybe these two guys are for you.
Jacob deGrom (8-6, 2.30 ERA) New York Mets – I am loving me some deGrom. I know what you are thinking, “The Giants do not Strikeout a lot” and you wold be correct. In fact, the Giants only strikeout a minuscule 17.8% verse RHP. Keep in mind this is a combined percentage of all Starting Pitchers the Giants have faced thus far. This includes your average run of the mill number five rotation guys as well in this figure, not just your Kershaws. Jacob deGrom has a great K/9 of 8.69, an elite WHIP of 0.97, and has been dominating in pretty much every start except his last one on July 2 against the Cubs.
He faces a Giants offense that has a .323 wOBA against RHP, but only carries a .302 wOBA at home. He gets to pitch in the best pitchers park in Baseball today at AT&T Park, which is 29th in Runs Scored at 0.735 and 30th in Home Runs at 0.508. I will be using him today in some cash games as well as Clayton Kershaw and pairing him on two pitcher sites.
Trevor Bauer (7-5, 3.88 ERA) Cleveland Indians – Do you like sitting on the edge of your chair biting your fingernails while you watch Baseball? That is the outcome when you take Trevor Bauer. This is a huge boom or bust play and not for the faint at heart or wallet. If you follow Baseball, you know Bauer is prone to blow ups. He floats along striking out batters at a rate of 8.60 K/9, then has that horrible inning where he walks three, hits a batter, and surrenders five runs while striking out the side. Somehow at the end of all this you usually end up with a pretty decent score out of him.
Well tonight he faces the Houston Astros who strikeout 25.9% of the time verse RHP. They either seem to hit a Home Run or strikeout. For the numbers guys like myself, the Astros have a team Batting Average of .246 and .326 wOBA against RHP. This could be the play of the night or leave you with a negative. I am willing to throw a few bucks on him tonight in some tournaments.
Twelve! That is the number of Toronto Blue Jays with a .wOBA above .300 against LHP and I find this astounding. There are also seven Blue Jays batters who bat over .290 against LHP and they are playing in a great hitters park in Chicago against John Danks, of which I am not a believer. For this reason you will find a lot Blue Jays in today’s batter selections. I will also try to give you one high dollar play and one play that offers salary relief at each position so you can try and fit Clayton Kershaw and some Blue Jays in your lineup. At the catcher position, I will only be playing one of these guys, depending on which one plays in all my lineups.
Dioner Navarro (.235 Avg., 2 HR) Toronto Blue Jays – My main goal today is to try to find a way to fit Clayton Kershaw in my lineups along with one or two higher priced Toronto bats. He has not played in four games and lifetime against John Danks he is 8-for-21 with three Home Runs and a .381 Avg. I am not a huge BVP guy, but I am a huge Value Play guy and for this reason he is my top selection today at catcher.
Russell Martin (.250 Avg., 12 HR) Toronto Blue Jays – If you are not comfortable with Navarro or he does not play, I would try to squeeze Russell Martin in today. He has .376 wOBA and .288 Avg. against LHP. He is the top option on the board today at this position but will be tough to get into your lineups with the other higher priced bats. On the positive side, his price is on the decline due to his recent slump where he is 2-for-22 in the last seven days.
The top option today at First Base without a doubt is Paul Goldschmidt. I really cannot see anyway to fit him into your lineups today while using a top tier starter. This makes him more of an elite tournament option along with a Trevor Bauer.
Justin Smoak (.256 Avg., 8 HR) Toronto Blue Jays – Even if I was not trying to save money at the position today, Justin Smoak would be a top play for me. He has a .512 wOBA and .333 Avg. against LHP so far in his twelve plate appearances. In the last seven days, he is 5-for-10 with three Home Runs and also gets to face John Danks in a hitters park. I am loving me some Smoak today.
Justin Bour (.255 Avg., 10 HR) Miami Marlins – This kid is a like a bad hot water heater. When the water is hot, it is hot and when its cold … lets just say its non-existent in his case. Right now though, Justin Boar is red hot. He has hit four Home Runs in the last week and has a .380 wOBA against RHP. He will be facing Rick Porcello, who has allowed 10 Earned Runs over his last 8 innings. On a day when you are trying to save money, this is a great option.
Johnny Giavotella (.269 Avg., 3 HR) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Once again you have a right handed batter facing a left handed pitcher, hitting near the top of the order (lead off lately), in a game with a huge expected point total for a below average salary. He has .312 wOBA against LHP and has a .300 Avg. with five RBIs over his last seven days. Weather permitting, he will be in all my lineups today.
Rougned Odor (.236 Avg. 4 HR) Texas Rangers – With price point being the focus, I bring you Rougned Odor. He is back up and hitting fairly well in a a hitters park facing a horrible right hander in the form of Jeremy Hellickson. He is batting .250 with three Home Runs since his return and usually hits in a favorable spot in the lineup. Over the last seven days, he is 7-for-25 with a Home Run and five RBIs. He is slightly cheaper than Giavotella and is another fine option.
Josh Donaldson (.300 Avg., 21 HR) Toronto Blue Jays – Trying to explain how awesome Josh Donaldson is when he faces left handers is like trying to convince you that Mike Trout is an okay Baseball player. If you can afford him today, he is a must play. I would dare say you should build your lineups around him. I find it very difficult to fit him and Kershaw into a lineup with other Toronto bats today, but if you can, you should. He has a .443 wOBA and .343 Batting Average when facing LHP. He also faces John Danks, and is 6-for-11 lifetime with two Home Runs.
Danny Valencia (.298 Avg., 5 HR) Toronto Blue Jays – Make no mistake about it, both Donaldson and Valencia will be in the line up today for Toronto. Depending on the site, you can get both of them in. Valencia is way under-priced on both sites I play at and I will be using Valencia today in all my lineups featuring Clayton Kershaw. Valencia has a .351 wOBA verse LHP and carries a .317 Avg. as well. As with most players within this article, he faces John Danks. Yes, another positive BVP where he is 8-for-25 lifetime with one Home Run off the Dankster.
Xander Bogaerts (.304 Avg., 3 HR) Boston Red Sox – You know what is amazing? Xander Bogaerts! He is quickly becoming a huge star in Major League Baseball. He just keeps hitting. Over the last seven days, he is batting .400 and is 12-for-30 with seven RBIs. You know what else is amazing? His price continues to rise very slowly. He is the premier value play today and the best option at his position. He is batting in the top of the order and faces a horrible pitcher on the road in Tom Koehler (5.56 Road ERA), in a game with an expected point total of nine Runs. I am all in on him today.
Nick Ahmed (.245 Avg. 6 HR) Arizona Diamondbacks – How lucky am I that two weeks in a row I get the Diamondbacks facing a Lefty. Makes my life simple. Nick Ahmed has a .413 wOBA and .362 Avg. when facing a lefty. Tonight he faces Matt Harrison who I have no love for, especially in a hitters park. He is 9-for-27 over the last week with one Home Run. He will bat in the top of the order in another game with a high expected point total for a low price. A great option if you do not like Bogaerts for little more.
Chris Colabello (.335 Avg., 8 HR) Toronto Blue Jays – I am not going to lie, I love this guy and his story. I love pretty much everything about him. He is tearing it up and his price still remains low across the industry making him my top Outfield play for today. He has a .467 wOBA and incredible .378 Avg. against LHP. Today he faces none other than John Danks and is 4-for-11 lifetime against him. He is 5-for-15 with two Home Runs in the last seven days and he hits in the five or six spot most occasions. He will be in all my lineups today.
Mitch Moreland (.291 Avg., 14 HR) Texas Rangers – This could be one of the best waiver wire gems of the season for yearly players (for the record, I manage a lot of yearly teams as well). He also has been a gem for Daily Fantasy Baseball players when he faces RHP. Moreland is batting .308 with 12 Home Runs and carries a .405 wOBA against RHP and for the price, is a must play in a game with such a high expected point total. He also offers some First Base eligibility on some sites. I mean really, he is facing Jeremy Hellickson.
David Murphy (.329 Avg., 5 HR) Cleveland Indians – The Indians are predictable and provide you with a value play every day against whatever pitcher they are facing. If you see them facing a LHP, then you can save money and put in Ryan Raburn. If you see they are facing a RHP, then you can save money and put in David Murphy. Murphy is batting .323 with five Home Runs and has a .367 wOBA when facing RHP and faces Dan Straily who has a 7.71 ERA. He is also the minimum price across the industry and bats clean up most days. On a day when you are trying to save money, this is another must play.
Other Outfielders to look at:
- Jose Bautista
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Charlie Blackmon
- Kevin Pillar
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
- Baltimore Orioles
- Los Angeles Angels (Check Weather)
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta Braves
- Detroit Tigers
- New York Mets
Well I guess that is it for this week. You can follow me On Twitter @geraldcolvin73. If you are looking for others to follow on Twitter check out : 57 Daily Fantasy Baseball Twitter Accounts to Follow – The Ever-growing list right here on this site. I will be off next week due to the All-Star break and will see you all again on the following week for some more Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks. Good luck!!
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