I started creating this Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers chart for my own help, but I thought it would be of great help to our “So-Called” Fantasy readers.
Feel free to use this in filling out their Daily Fantasy Baseball lineups for 2015 MLB Opening Day. We won’t have this chart every day, but I am hoping to post it at least a couple times a week.
I wrote an article earlier about why pitching is the most important thing to track for Daily Fantasy Baseball.
And over at my site, I explained the things that are important to me about starting pitchers in Daily Fantasy Baseball, including a pitcher-friendly park, a decent K%-BB%, opposing hitters with low wOBA and high K-rates.
So as I filled out the chart, I started filling out some other important fields as well, and then it just turned into a whole project.
Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers Chart
This chart breaks down the starting pitchers for MLB Opening Day, April 6, 2015. The prices indicated are in the thousands, and the statistics are derived from 2014 MLB lineups. The Ballpark Factor numbers are taken from ESPN.com.
RS = Runs scored derived from VegasInsider.com’s lines, breaking down the over/under line using a one-run separator between the favorite and the underdog. Bolded names indicate left-hander starting pitchers.
I realize this chart doesn’t fit the page — but I don’t know what to remove! I already deleted the pitchers’ K%-BB% column at the end.
|Rk||April 6, Monday||DK $$||FD $$||DD $$||Opp-wOBA||Opp-K%||RS for Opp||Def Eff||Park Factor|
|1.||Hernandez, SEA vs LAA||$11.00||$11.20||$17.85||0.321||20.1||2.75||0.712||0.825|
|2.||Alvarez, MIA vs ATL||$6.20||$7.40||$9.85||0.296||22.6||3||0.675||0.94|
|3.||Liriano, PIT at CIN||$8.30||$8.50||$13.65||0.294||20.9||4||0.694||0.963|
|4.||Kluber, CLE at HOU||$9.80||$10.40||$15.95||0.308||23.8||3.25||0.673||1.012|
|5.||Kershaw, LAD vs SD||$12.40||$11.70||$19.90||0.283||21.9||2.5||0.69||0.907|
|6.||Teheran, ATL at MIA||$8.80||$9.20||$13.65||0.307||22.9||4||0.687||0.94|
|7.||Weaver, LAA at SEA||$7.50||$8.50||$11.40||0.299||20.6||3.75||0.703||0.825|
|8.||Buchholz, BOS at PHI||$6.90||$8.50||$12.50||0.295||21.1||3.75||0.685||0.929|
|9.||Tanaka, NYY vs TOR||$9.70||$9.10||$15.00||0.325||18.7||3.5||0.687||0.945|
|10.||Ventura, KC vs CHW||$7.60||$8.20||$11.40||0.312||22.4||3.25||0.693||1.014|
|11.||Cueto, CIN vs PIT||$9.60||$10.50||$15.10||0.325||20||3||0.712||0.963|
|12.||Scherzer, WAS vs NYM||$11.50||$11.00||$17.80||0.299||20.6||3||0.691||1.068|
|13.||Gray, OAK vs TEX||$8.30||$9.40||$14.05||0.305||19.3||3||0.71||1.023|
|14.||Lohse, MIL vs COL||$7.10||$7.50||$10.65||0.337||20.8||3.75||0.696||1.002|
|15.||Shields, SD at LAD||$8.90||$9.20||$13.60||0.327||20||3.5||0.696||0.907|
|16.||Archer, TB vs BAL||$7.60||$8.60||$12.25||0.323||21||3.25||0.7||1.002|
|17.||Price, DET vs MIN||$10.40||$10.60||$16.95||0.316||21.3||3.25||0.673||1.003|
|18.||Hamels, PHI vs BOS||$9.90||$10.00||$15.45||0.305||21.5||3.75||0.693||0.929|
|19.||Kendrick, COL at MIL||$4.20||$6.60||$8.50||0.313||19.7||4.75||0.678||1.002|
|20.||Bumgarner, SF at ARI||$9.80||$10.50||$16.20||0.3||19.1||3.25||0.703||1.154|
|21.||Colon, NYM at WAS||$6.80||$7.70||$11.10||0.317||21||4||0.688||1.068|
|22.||Hutchinson, TOR at NYY||$7.20||$7.40||$12.35||0.305||18.6||4.5||0.693||0.945|
|23.||Keuchel, HOU vs CLE||$6.90||$8.30||$11.25||0.313||19.1||4.25||0.685||1.012|
|24.||Samardzija, CHW at KC||$9.10||$9.70||$14.00||0.306||16.3||4.25||0.678||1.014|
|25.||Gallardo, TEX at OAK||$6.60||$7.60||$10.25||0.312||17.7||4||0.675||1.023|
|26.||Tillman, BAL at TB||$7.10||$8.30||$11.10||0.305||18.1||4.25||0.706||1.002|
|27.||Collmenter, ARI vs SF||$5.90||$7.20||$10.55||0.308||20.5||4.25||0.673||1.154|
|28.||Hughes, MIN at DET||$8.10||$8.40||$13.20||0.331||18.4||4.25||0.672||1.003|
Interesting Notes About This Chart
Here are a few things that stand out to me about the above chart, and why you should or shouldn’t consider using some of these players.
Henderson Alvarez is wildly underpriced on every site in this matchup against Atlanta. The lineup is in rough shape – it’s weird that we wish Melvin Upton Jr. was still in the lineup, though – and Julio Teheran might be a tad overrated. Plus, with Craig Kimbrel traded to San Diego, this team is going to be shell-shocked on the road. Alvarez doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, though, but he should pick up innings and the win in this matchup — at a very cheap price.
Clayton Kershaw is going to kill your lineup because of his price, and let’s not forget that these opposing stats are still based, for now, on the 2014 San Diego Padres. The Padres current lineup has five new faces – so more than half of that lineup is new. And Matt Kemp has likely learned a little about Mr. Kershaw in his time with the Dodgers. I’m skipping Kershaw today – although, I still think he’ll have a good opener. Just not a highest-priced kinda opener.
Francisco Liriano is a player I wasn’t really considering much before creating this chart, only because the Reds’ ballpark is scary. But the Reds had the second-worst team wOBA last season, and they were the second-worst team in the league against left-handed pitchers last season, batting .235.
Things do not look good for Phil Hughes this afternoon on the road against the Tigers in Comerica Park. I’m loading up on some Yoenis Cespedes in several formats, but he appears to be the cheapest in comparison (by a longshot) on DraftDay.com. On FanDuel and DraftKings, he’s ranked as the 15th-most expensive outfielder, but on DraftDay, he’s tied for the 55th-most expensive outfielder! He hit .279 against right-handers last season, but he had a .466 slugging percentage against righties, too, which ranked 13th among outfielders last season.
I’m also going to get some shares of Corey Kluber today, considering he struck out 269 batters last year, and the Astros’ 23.8 K-rate last year was the worst in the American League.
Don’t forget to check out Levi Serfoss’ Daily Fantasy picks for today, too!
Good luck on 2015 MLB Opening Day — hopefully, some of these Daily Fantasy Baseball starting pitchers come through for you!
Felix Hernandez Photo Credit: Kevin Schofield
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