One of my favorite DFS strategies is what I refer to as going back to the well.
It is typically more effective for GPP plays than it is for cash games, but it can work for both. The strategy of going back to the well means going back to a player who left you high and dry the previous week, but you now expect to suddenly gush points. The idea being that a well can run dry but everything is cyclical, i.e. some rain further up the pipe will now refill the well. Thus, you should go back to the well/player.
The argument against it of course is “Burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice, shame on me.” However, how many times have we see a player put up a dud only to come back the following week to put up a monster game? And going back to the well works particularly well in GPPs. It works well because that player who goes off is often very low owned after burning so many players the previous week.
However, going back to the well can also mean going back to the same well that gave you water last week should be able to give you water this week as well.
I definitely have a couple players below who I mentioned last week as well. We will start with a player I suggested for your Week 3 lineup and then had 10 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. Certainly worth going back to the well on him, right?
Week 8 DFS Picks
Week 8 Obvious Cash Game Play
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals ($8600 DK $8500 FD)
Obviously Green can go off, and last time I suggested him, he did. But last week he left his owners a little high and dry providing his owners just three grabs for 41 yards. But I’m going back to the well as he is both a proven stud and he has a plus matchup against the Colts, who have given up the second most Fantasy points to opposing offensive players. And that was with Malik Hooker, who has three interceptions already. Hooker tore his ACL last week, so the holes in the Colts secondary are now even larger. I am expecting a huge game from Green.
Week 8 GPP Play of the Week
DST Buffalo Bills ($2900 DK $4600 FD)
I am also expecting a huge game from the Bills this week. The Oakland Raiders hung four touchdowns on the Chiefs highly regarded defense including Amari Cooper’s big game, plus Buffalo disappointed last week against the Bucs. Most DFS players will bypass the Bills defense. But you have a West Coast team playing a 1 pm game in 49 degrees and rain. And those kind of conditions facilitate running the ball, which is not the Raiders strength. So either the Raiders end up trying to improve a weakness or they end up passing against the Bills who have the second most interceptions in the league and are holding opposing quarterbacks to the fifth lowest QB rating in the league. Probably worth going back to the well on Buffalo, right?
Week 8 Potential GPP Lineup Options
QB C.J. Beathard, 49ers (FD $6300 DK 5100) or Cam Newton, Panthers (FD $7800)
Both of these players had lousy games last week, but I am going back to the well on them. The question is how aggressive do you want to be? Beathard is the more aggressive, more contrarian play. After last week’s dud (my apologies), no one is going to be on Beathard. Call it stubbornness, but I just have this gut instinct that says a surprise game is coming against the Eagles who are still riding high after their big win on Monday night. And the way to beat the Philly defense is not on the ground. But they can be beat through the air, as they are giving up the seventh most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Eagles CB Jalen Mills alone is giving up third most PPR Fantasy points. I’m pushing in on this one.
Of course if that scares you too much, I think after last week’s stinker, people will be off Cam. But I think Cam goes from mild-mannered Clark Kent back into Superman. If I am not worried about saving budget, I go after Cam who is facing Tampa Bay who is giving up the second most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
RB Doug Martin (FD $6500 DK $5400)
The Muscle Hamster is running hard. The matchup will scare some away, but I’m buying, and more so on Draft Kings.
RB Christian McCaffrey (FD $6300 DK $6200)
I have this feeling that Ron Rivera realizes that McCaffrey is his best weapon for Cam and uses him heavily this game. I like him more on Fan Duel.
RB Joe Mixon (FD $5900 DK $4700)
So I blew it on Mixon last week too. But I’m going back to the well, on both sites. And it’s risky, especially since Marvin Lewis called out Mixon for being “immature” in the media. Yet I think Lewis knows he needs to give the rock more to Mixon. Mixon makes it up to me this week.
RB/Flex Mark Ingram (DK $7400)
Are the Saints becoming a running team? No. But Ingram is getting better and better. And if you go with Beathard over Newton like I am, there will be some budget to spend and I am spending it on Ingram.
WR A.J. Green (DK $8600 FD $8500)
I know he’s my cash play this week. But I will have enough low salary guys that I am going to squeeze him in here too.
WR Paul Richardson (DK $4000 FD $4700)
And one of those low salary guys is a low floor/high ceiling guy like Richardson who has three touchdowns in six games. The Seahawks always seem to start slow but heat up as we head into the second half of the season. And if you look at the other receiver options in this range, Richardson’s production sticks out like a sore thumb, producing 20% or more Fantasy points than anyone else in this range.
WR Will Fuller (FD $6500)
You know how I just mentioned that Richardson’s production sticks out? Fuller’s does the same thing on Fan Duel. The matchup is tough, but I think Fuller does enough to exceed this cost. On Fan Duel, I think he’s worth the risk.
WR Alshon Jeffery (FD $6600 DK $4700)
When Philly is surprised by San Francisco, the Eagles are going to need to hit some long passes to win. Jeffery didn’t score last week. He does this week.
TE Zach Ertz (FD $7300)
In Fan Duel where you can balance some high salaries with lower defense and kicker options, it is well worth paying up for Ertz. Yes, I am going back to the well on Ertz, who produces every week that I use him.
TE Hunter Henry (DK $4800)
So the Pats shut down Austin Hooper. Big deal. The concern here is that Rivers find Gates instead of Henry, but the torch has been passed and I’m willing to take the gamble for $4800 on Draft Kings.
DST Buffalo Bills (DK $2900 FD $4600)
See above. The Bills might be my favorite value play this week, depending on the site. I don’t like them as much on some of the other sites (they are a HORRENDOUS buy on FantasyDraft as the sixth most expensive defense!), but for both Fan Duel and Draft Kings, I do.
K Will Lutz (FD $4900)
I’ll take a kicker on a team that is not having trouble moving the ball. Playing at home. In a dome. It will be the first time I have used Lutz this year, but can’t go back to the well on every position!
- Week 16 Stock Report: My Stock - December 23, 2018
- Week 15 Stock Report: Playoff Buys For Weeks 15 and 16 - December 15, 2018
- Week 14 Rookie Report: Who Is THIS Guy? - December 9, 2018