As with all of our lineup recommendations, these DraftKings Picks are based on the information we have at the time of posting. Make sure you keep an eye on the weather and all of the latest lineup changes.
Trevor Story hit seven home runs in his first six Major League games and if you extrapolate his numbers out you may be putting your computer’s processor in danger.
There used to be a street called Trevor Story, but it was changed because nobody crosses Trevor Story and lives.
Superman and Trevor Story had a bet on a fight. The loser had to start wearing his underwear on the outside of his pants.
Jesus could walk on Water. Trevor Story can swim through land.
Trevor Story kicked Chuck Norris’ ass and stole all these jokes…
Seriously, what an incredible week for Story. If you drafted him, he’s already earned whatever you paid for him and more. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a player’s Fantasy value rise so much in such a short time.
The big debate around the Fantasy industry seems to be whether you capitalize on his early success and trade him for a trusted commodity, or if you just keep him and and appreciate what you got for basically free. I’m in the camp that says he’s basically for real. Of course he won’t continue his current pace, but I think with the help of Coors he can be one of the top few options at shortstop for the rest of the season. My only hesitation is how the Jose Reyes situation plays out. Colorado would no doubt like to deal Reyes, but he has to play to build interest.
Enough of that Story (yeah, I’m tired of the jokes too). Let’s get to the DFS task at hand.
Here are the links you need to prepare for the night’s action and of course following that are my Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for the late slate on Wednesday, April 13, 2016.
Links for MLB Weather:
Probable Pitchers and Lineups:
Batter vs. Pitcher: I’m not much of a believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. You can read why here. Still, a lot of people use this data and I have to admit occasionally taking a pick when I make my DraftKings picks, so here are the two that are most useful in my opinion.
DraftKings Strategy for the Day
DraftKings uses two pitchers, which I am a big fan of. It spreads some risk and gives an advantage to those of us who fancy ourselves pitching prognosticators. My strategy in two-pitcher formats is to use one stud in a nice matchup, and one less expensive pitcher with solid strikeout potential.
On the hitting side it’s all about avoidance and platoon advantage for me. I avoid elite pitchers under most circumstances, and I want hitters who have the platoon advantage against mid-level and below pitchers. For 50/50 contests this strategy has worked pretty well for me. When you’re talking about GPPs though, platoon advantage takes a bit of a back seat, because stacking plays a larger role.
DraftKings Picks for Wednesday, April 13, 2016
Top Starting Pitchers for the Day
Stephen Strasburg is the big name and the Braves offense is no powerhouse. They do not, however, strike out very much. This is one day where I’m turning away from the elite pitcher and looking at two less costly options.
The first guy I’m looking at is Yordano Ventura. Yes, the Astros offense can put some runs on the board, but they also strike out a ton. He also faces Scott Feldman who should give up plenty of runs.
The other option might come down to personal preference. I like Drew Smyly to shut down the Indians and provide seven-plus strikeouts, but he faces Carlos Carrasco and the Tampa Bay offense has not exactly been crushing it.
If I don’t go with Smyly then I’ll turn to Carlos Rodon who faces the Twins. I think the Twins offense will eventually get going, but right now they are really struggling. Rodon looked like he turned a corner late last season and his first start was very strong. He’s opposed by Phil Hughes, who is the poster boy for average. The Sox should be able to put up four or more runs against Hughes. If Rodon does his job, you get the big W.
Two Pitchers to Target for Stacking
When I say target, I do not mean you want them in your lineups. Instead these are pitchers you want to think about when choosing your hitters. It’s kind of like racial profiling, but a whole lot less controversial. Stacking is not always a smart play in 50/50 contests, but I’ll throw these out there.
- Jordan Lyles vs. San Francisco – It’s not very contrarian, but in 50/50s it’s still a solid play to load up on Rockies.
- Scott Feldman vs. Houston Astros – Feldman is probably a better pitcher than I give him credit for, but that doesn’t mean he’s good. The Royals don’t offer one clearly elite hitter, but a small stack could pay off nicely.
Top DraftKings Picks at Each Position
Here are two choices at each position; one is the best bet for production and the other is a lower priced option with a favorable outlook.
I’m not a fan of spending big on catching. Once you get past Buster Posey (who’s dealing with injury), it’s just a big pile of mediocrity. So the plan is to use that mediocrity when they have the platoon advantage.
Miguel Montero vs. Alfredo Simon (RHP) – Montero is not a bad play early in the season while he’s still fresh and he’s been swinging it well so far.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia vs. Ryan Vogelsong (RHP) – I’m not a fan of the price tag, but Vogelsong is a nice target here and James McCann left yesterday’s game with an injury. Salty still has nice power and stands a decent chance of knocking one out.
Chris Davis vs. Joe Kelly (RHP) – Kelly is a mediocre pitcher and Chris Davis eats them alive. I recommended Davis last week and he went yard. He might do it twice tonight.
Joey Votto vs. John Lackey (RHP) – Draftkings plays like an OBP league and Votto is the king of OBP. Lackey got knocked around a bit in his first start and was leaving a lot of pitches up.
Daniel Murphy vs. Matt Wisler (RHP) – Murphy may not be the elite power hitter he portrayed in last year’s playoffs, but he’s doing a darn good impersonation. The price is a bit high for my liking, but I think the Nats will rough Wisler up and Murphy will be in the middle of it.
Starlin Castro vs. J.A. Happ (LHP) – Castro’s splits aren’t extreme, but he has hit slightly better against lefties over his career. He’s also off to a nice start and seems ready for a nice little power breakout.
Miguel Sano vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP) – I do like Rodon tonight and Sano is off to a slow start. Doesn’t matter. Sano is a monster who will soon break out. For the price he’s my top third baseman tonight… unless it’s
Maikel Franco vs. Jerad Eickoff (RHP) – Franco is $100 cheaper and I’m not a big fan of Eickoff. First of all, his parents had spelling issues (Jerad?), but more importantly he’s had issues giving up the long ball. I’ll take one from Franco tonight.
Troy Tulowitzki vs. Michael Pineda (RHP) – Not a perfect matchup, but Tulo is still a top option at short and anytime the Jays are at home, you give him a little boost. Now if he were facing a lefty…
Francisco Lindor vs. Drew Smyly (LHP) – Don’t use Lindor if you use Smyly and I do like Smyly tonight, but Lindor does some real nice things against left-handed pitching. He hit .340 with six of his thirteen homers coming against southpaws in 2015. And oh yeah, he hit a bomb against lefty Matt Moore last night.
Ryan Braun vs. Mike Leake (RHP) – We haven’t heard much noise from Braun, but he’s off to a .292 start and the price is right. Whatever the Brewers can get going against Leake, Braun will likely be in the middle of it.
Gerardo Parra vs. Jake Peavy (RHP) – Take Parra’s already extreme platoon splits, then toss in Coors Field and I really like what you get. He’s off to a bit of a slow start, but it’s been one week. Not everybody is Trevor Story.
Carlos Gonzalez vs. Jake Peavy (RHP) – Sure it’s cherry picking, but Gonzo is off to a nice start in the power department and his price tag is not too exorbitant.
Khris Davis vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP) – His 2015 splits don’t show it, but Kemp is a .327 career hitter against LHP. He’s also turned on the power, with five homers in 25 games in June. I’d like the salary a little lower, but I’m not a fan of the matchups for the upper tier of outfielders, so Kemp represents a nice value.
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