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Welcome to the Week 13 Pitching Planner.  Here are some stats that should interest you.

  • 74:  The number of games most teams have played this season.
  • 1.94: Shelby Miller’s current ERA after 15 starts.
  • 1.49:  Gio Gonzalez’s WHIP after 14 starts.

I wrote an article about how names are more important than statistics, and it has never reigned truer than at this point in the season. The numbers are clear as day, yet no one, and I mean no one, has changed their opinion on certain players.

Sure some people, occasional “so called experts,” pun intended, dig a little deeper and understand that this game is all about statistics. However, some people (myself included) have personal, gut feelings that we can’t shake. Even if the stats are right in front of us, and Jon Lester is indeed a joke this season, I’m sure some people out there still wouldn’t move Lester stock for Shelby Miller stock.

Everyone has different opinions about different players. Travis Pastore and I had that discussion on his latest podcast which included my distaste, whatever the reason, for Carlos Carrasco, yet my love for Trevor Bauer. Travis pointed out, very intelligently I might add, my distaste is by no means justified, it’s merely a gut feeling I have.

For this week, however, let me get down from my soap box and get to the pitching planner. Let’s take a look at 10 pitchers with a little less pedigree (at least for the start options), putting my “inner distaste” aside.

Fantasy Baseball Week 13 Pitching Planner

5 Pitchers to Start June 29 – July 5

 

1. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

A risky pick to start the list out with, especially if I want to keep the readers interested, but Nelson comes off a good start and draws a two start week against the Phillies and Reds. In addition, both starts come against fairly inadequate pitchers (Sean O’Sullivan and Josh Smith). To predict a couple of starts like his previous may be a stretch, but he could certainly throw two quality starts with at least one win, and he has plenty of strikeout potential.

2. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

I realize I just criticized Harold Reynolds last week for saying Leake “dominated teams,” but I do like him again this week. Two start week with the first start at home against the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are 26th in the league in runs scored during the month of June and have really struggled on the road this season, ranking 28th in runs scored away from Target Field. He then draws the Brewers on Sunday. Milwaukee ranks 27th in runs scored away from home.

3. Anthony DeSclafani, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

I like the Reds a lot this week with two home series against the Twins and Brewers. DeSclafani will not get the Brewers, given the Reds off day on Thursday, but he will get the start against the Twins. He has been pitching well lately and given his cheap price tag (despite really good numbers I might add), he is a nice start this week.

4. Chase Anderson, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Anderson went 7-3 at Chase Field last season and it is not too long ago, one bad Coors Field start to be exact, that he had a sub-3 ERA for the season. Anderson draws the same Colorado Rockies team this week, only in Arizona, and the Rockies have not exactly figured out how the whole offense thing works away from Coors Field this season. I like a bounce back performance from Anderson this week

5. James Shields, RHP, San Diego Padres

What’s funny about Shields is he has never truly been the top-end elite starter, aside from the one season in Tampa Bay when he posted a 2.82 ERA in 2011. Yet, he is one of those starters that just carries himself in a certain way that you know as a player on the Padres (I can only assume), and as a Fantasy owner, that he will not stay down for long. He’s coming off a bit of a rough stretch, but he gets a start at Petco Park against the struggling Seattle Mariners. He may put up the gem of the week at half the cost of some of the more higher echelon guys.

 

Match-up of the week:

Noah Syndergaard vs. Clayton Kershaw at Dodger Stadium on Friday, July 3. Who is not looking forward to that match-up to kick off their Independence Day Weekend?

 

5 Pitchers to Sit June 29 – July 5

 

1. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox

The book on Rodon is pretty simple … a team with plate discipline could make it a long/short night for him, a team without plate discipline could make him look like an ace. He draws the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium this week. How do you see that ending?

2. Yovani Gallardo, RHP, Texas Rangers

Gallardo has been very solid this season with a 2.72 ERA. However, you don’t tally six losses by being an ace 100% of the time, not that anyone is calling Gallardo an ace at this point in his career. If you are a Gallardo owner, I would be very concerned about a trip to Camden Yards against the Baltimore Orioles this week. He is 2-4 with a 3.74 ERA away from Arlington, and Baltimore is fifth in the league in runs scored and fourth in the league in runs scored at home.

3. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Boston Red Sox

In case people are not off the Rodriguez bandwagon after his last start against Baltimore (six earned runs in 3.2 innings pitched, after shutting out the Orioles for six innings in his previous start against Baltimore), Rodriguez draws the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday. The same Blue Jays that crush lefties and the same Blue Jays that thrashed Rodriguez for nine earned runs in his previous start against the Jays, and this match-up comes at Rogers Centre. I think Rodriguez is a fine pitcher, but I think he performed a little over his head at the beginning and probably not a smart bet to bounce back this week.

4. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets

I do believe Syndergaard vs. Kershaw will be hyped as the game of the week, but I don’t believe the outcome will turn out that way. Perhaps Syndergaard steps up big, or perhaps the Mets offense remains inept, and Syndergaard continues his struggles on the road (0-3 with a 6.52 ERA). The numbers, at least, are in my favor. Los Angeles is also 27-13 at Dodger Stadium, if that counts for anything.

5. Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Minnesota Twins

As bad as the Twins offense is away from Target Field, Pelfrey’s pitching has been much worse. For a guy to have a 3.06 ERA on the season with a 1.80 ERA at home is pretty remarkable. The numbers for Pelfrey away from Minnesota are much more “Pelfrey like.” In 7 starts, he is 2-3 with a 4.46 ERA. He draws the Reds who are averaging over four runs per game in June and 4.5 runs per game in their last six.

Best of luck in Week 13 and let our Pitching Planner get you the wins and keep you ERA and WHIP low. 

 

 

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