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Sleepers and Busts

Fantasy Busts: First Basemen — Does Getting to First Base Lead You to the Bust?

Now I don’t necessarily dislike Chris Johnson as much as B.J. Upton but let’s be honest with each other here, there is less protection around Freddie than there is in Antonio Cromarties’ bedroom.

Freddie Freeman, First Base Busts, Thomson20192

Let’s face it. It’s your proudest moment in Fantasy Sports. That time when you told your sister’s ex-boyfriend to not draft Player X because he has bust written all over him. Followed by the, “I told you he would be a bust,” after an 0-for-4 night two games into the season.

Trying to forecast Fantasy anything is a lot like Mel Kiper mock drafts, entering GPPs in Daily Fantasy Sports and submitting 10 different brackets in the NCAA Tournament. Eventually, with enough entries you will be right.

That’s why I’m here to take the proverbial stab at who I think is overvalued in the power position — I’m uncovering Fantasy first base busts.

First up, Jose Abreu. Just kidding. This horse will be beaten worse than #DeflateGate.

Overvalued: First Base Busts for 2015

I expect these two players to be drafted higher than what their true values will end up being. In other words, here are two players I believe are overvalued for 2015.

High-End Bust: Freddie Freeman, Atlanta

My highly drafted bust will be none other than … Freddie … Freddie Freeman! (Willie Beamen song!)

Why do I say Freeman? Well, I look who is batting around him. The projected two hitter is none other than B.J. Upton. You know the one you’ve been holding a special place in hell  your heart for because you just knew that he would have that game where he would absolutely go off. In fact, I’m guessing you’re still waiting.

That brings us to the batter in the lineup below Freddie, Chris Johnson. Now I don’t necessarily dislike Johnson as much as Upton, but let’s be honest with each other here, there is less protection around Freddie than there is in Antonio Cromarties’ bedroom. Taking it a step further, the only guy I see capable of doing anything in this lineup consistently is Nicholas Markakis. Even then I think Markakis will struggle simply because the Braves will struggle — and because of these struggles I will be staying far away from Freddie Freeman.

If you want to read more about the Braves on the SCFE site, check out our 2015 Atlanta Braves Fantasy Team Preview.

2015 Fantasy Busts
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Since I know you like reading my articles, I will give you another big bust at the first base position. That man is none other than, Easy E, Edwin Encarnacion. Why do I pick Encarnacion? Well, a simple look into his pre and post All-Star Game numbers tell the story there. Now granted, he was injured for a bit, but his second half was mediocre compared to his sizzling hot first half.

Unlike our bust nasty friend Freeman, at least Encarnacion has protection in the lineup. While he is in a much better situation than Freddie, I think it will be very difficult for him to duplicate the numbers he had in 2014. Combine this with the fact that he may be hit by injuries, I think this is an obvious bust candidate, but then again, I’m just a “So Called Fantasy Expert”…

Back-End Bust: Matt Adams, St. Louis

That’s right boys and girls, you wanted the bull and now you get the horns. If you are going to draft ol’ Matt Daddy, you better make sure you also draft a guy who can hit lefties because Matt Adams CAN NOT. In 121 at-bats against lefties Mr. Adams only had 23 hits. That’s a salty .190 average. It’s so salty that it could put Pearson’s out of business. (They make Salted Nut Rolls.)

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You compare this to when Adams hits righties, and his average sky rockets. Against righties, he has an average of .318. So you better have a Plan B when he goes up against lefties.

Other things about Matt Adams I care not for:

  • Doesn’t really do much for extra base hits
  • His average is OK at .288, but I would still like it a little higher.
  • He ranks 15th among first basemen in strikeouts — but does anyone care how much you strike out anymore? I think fans and Fantasy players just want to see the hits — and especially the home runs.

If the Cardinals are slow out of the gate again, where will your patience be with Matty Fat Sacks? There were times last year where the Cardinals were dreadful — and I suspect that may happen again this year. To me, he could be a guy you cut the minute your draft is over.

Let us know who you think might be overvalued this season with a comment or two about some of your favorite first base busts for 2015.

Freddie Freeman Photo Credit: Thomson20192

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