Fantasy Football: What Does The Past Suggest For Joseph Randle

I listened to the CBS Fantasy Football Today Podcast a couple of times last week, and this was the first time that I had taken the occasion to do so in about a year. On the show, a debate opened up about Joseph Randle, who seems to have become somewhat of a polarizing figure this preseason. I don’t recall the exact nature of the debate, but it concerned Randle’s overall potential for this season.

The debate was somewhat ended (since I have only listened to the podcast once since then, the topic may have come up again and I’m not aware of it) when Heath Cummings (this isn’t the exact language but it’s approximate) argued that there haven’t been many running backs that have turned out to be successful after having less than 100 carries in each of their first two seasons.

Intuitively, the narrative makes sense. If a running back was actually talented, they would have been good enough to get at least 100 carries in one of their first two seasons: not a very high bar to cross. However, I heard that and thought, “Do we really know that?”

The basic question is, are there running backs who turned out to be successful after barely playing in each of their first two seasons?

If we can answer this question, it not only informs us about the possibilities for Joseph Randle, but it tells us about the upside for any other running back who is asked to be a contributor after seeing limited action at the start of their career.

Let’s Get to The Bottom of This

To solve our question above, I looked at all running backs since 1998 who had less than 100 carries in each of their first two seasons. My data only goes back to 1989, so if a player started their career before 1989 and played until 1998, their first season would be before the first year of our data; however, to my knowledge, I don’t know of any running backs who played in 1998 and started their careers before 1989, so we should be safe.

Once I had this list of players, I looked at the best Fantasy seasons for this group of players (i.e. the running backs who barely played their first two seasons), which you can find below. The list contains the Top 100 Fantasy seasons for players of this group.

If Heath is right, especially since our population is relatively small and only goes back to 1998, we shouldn’t recognize any of the names at the top of this list; they should be players that are irrelevant and never produced at a meaningful level.

Player	Year	Age	Tm	FantPt
Ahman Green	2003	26	GNB	338
Jamal Anderson	1998	26	ATL	309.5
Michael Turner	2008	26	ATL	273
Garrison Hearst	1998	27	SFO	262.5
Ahman Green	2001	24	GNB	259.1
Ahman Green	2000	23	GNB	245.4
Robert Smith	2000	28	MIN	242.9
Peyton Hillis	2010	24	CLE	235.9
Lamar Smith	2000	30	MIA	227
Rudi Johnson	2005	26	CIN	225.8
LaMont Jordan	2005	27	OAK	224.8
Rudi Johnson	2004	25	CIN	221.8
Dorsey Levens	1999	29	GNB	215.7
Michael Turner	2010	28	ATL	215.6
Michael Turner	2011	29	ATL	213.8
Ahman Green	2002	25	GNB	213.3
Rudi Johnson	2006	27	CIN	209.3
Brandon Jacobs	2008	26	NYG	199.5
Ahmad Bradshaw	2010	24	NYG	197.9
Robert Smith	1998	26	MIN	194.8
Reuben Droughns	2004	26	DEN	191.1
Ahman Green	2004	27	GNB	189.6
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	2010	25	NWE	187.3
Michael Pittman	2004	29	TAM	185.7
Moe Williams	2003	29	MIN	184.9
Garrison Hearst	2001	30	SFO	184.3
Ladell Betts	2006	27	WAS	183.9
Chester Taylor	2006	27	MIN	181.4
Earnest Graham	2007	27	TAM	181.2
Garrison Hearst	2002	31	SFO	180.9
Ahman Green	2006	29	GNB	175.2
Adrian Murrell	1998	28	ARI	175.1
Jamal Anderson	2000	28	ATL	172.6
Joique Bell	2014	28	DET	166.2
Reuben Droughns	2005	27	CLE	166.1
Rudi Johnson	2003	24	CIN	164.3
Joique Bell	2013	27	DET	163.7
Nick Goings	2004	26	CAR	162.5
Lamar Smith	2001	31	MIA	162.2
Stacey Mack	2001	26	JAX	161.2
Michael Pittman	2000	25	ARI	160.8
Ahmad Bradshaw	2011	25	NYG	159.6
Mike Tolbert	2010	25	SDG	158.1
Michael Turner	2012	30	ATL	156.8
Ahmad Bradshaw	2012	26	NYG	156
James Allen	2000	25	CHI	154.1
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	2012	27	CIN	151.8
Derrick Ward	2008	28	NYG	150.9
Mike Tolbert	2011	26	SDG	150.3
Chester Taylor	2007	28	MIN	149.5
Tony Richardson	2000	29	KAN	149.5
Brandon Jacobs	2007	25	NYG	149.3
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	2011	26	NWE	148.6
Jerome Harrison	2009	26	CLE	148.2
Michael Turner	2009	27	ATL	146.6
Michael Pittman	2003	28	TAM	142.8
Darren Sproles	2012	29	NOR	141.1
Justin Fargas	2007	27	OAK	140.7
Brandon Jacobs	2010	28	NYG	140.2
Gary Brown	1998	29	NYG	138.9
Rashad Jennings	2013	28	OAK	138.5
Ahmad Bradshaw	2009	23	NYG	137.5
Michael Pittman	2001	26	ARI	136
Brandon Jacobs	2009	27	NYG	135.9
Derrick Blaylock	2004	25	KAN	132.5
Amos Zereoue	2002	26	PIT	132.3
Moe Williams	2002	28	MIN	131.5
Lamar Smith	2002	32	CAR	130.4
Leroy Hoard	1999	31	MIN	130.1
Sammy Morris	2008	31	NWE	129.8
Robert Smith	1999	27	MIN	129.1
Danny Woodhead	2010	25	2TM	127.6
Brandon Jackson	2010	25	GNB	127.5
Richard Huntley	1999	27	PIT	127
Leroy Hoard	1998	30	MIN	126.7
Tim Biakabutuka	1999	25	CAR	123.7
Michael Pittman	2002	27	TAM	122.5
Garrison Hearst	2003	32	SFO	119.9
Chester Taylor	2008	29	MIN	118
Brandon Jacobs	2011	29	NYG	116.9
Tim Biakabutuka	2000	26	CAR	116.8
Ahmad Bradshaw	2014	28	IND	116.5
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	2013	28	CIN	115.8
Jason Snelling	2009	26	ATL	115.2
Donnell Bennett	1999	27	KAN	113.8
Shane Vereen	2014	25	NWE	113.8
Maurice Morris	2007	28	SEA	113.1
Adrian Peterson2	2007	28	CHI	112.4
Reuben Droughns	2006	28	CLE	111.7
Najeh Davenport	2007	28	PIT	109.3
Brandon Jacobs	2006	24	NYG	109.2
Richie Anderson	2003	32	DAL	108.9
Rashad Jennings	2014	29	NYG	108.5
Amp Lee	1998	27	STL	107.2
Terrell Fletcher	1998	25	SDG	107
Darren Sproles	2014	31	PHI	105.6
Stacey Mack	2002	27	JAX	105.5
Joique Bell	2012	26	DET	103.9
Richie Anderson	2000	29	NYJ	103.6
Chester Taylor	2004	25	BAL	100.8

Wow.

Not only do we recognize a lot of the names on this list, but we can also see a lot of quality players in this group.

We now know that it is possible for a running back to turn into a good player after seeing limited carries in their first two years, but we have also learned that it’s somewhat common for it to happen. It amazes me how often players come out of nowhere to have productive careers; C.J. Anderson was an undrafted free agent and is now a first or second round pick in most Fantasy drafts this year; Cameron Wake was cut by the Giants, out of football, and in the CFL, and still turned into one of the best edge defenders in the NFL at age 27. Our ability to predict the future performance of NFL players is poor, and the more we realize this, the better we will become at our forecasts.