Average Draft Position, or ADP, is a key thing to study before every draft. It lets you know where on average a player is being taken, so you know where you need to target him.
Now the thing you have to realize is there are a million different ADPs out there. Typically one for each different site that you can draft on and you should study the one for the site you will be using.
For the purposes of this article, we will be using the consensus ADP over on FantasyPros.com. Five different sites are used to compile their ADP; Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, FFC, and NFL. This is a great sample to use, since these are five of the most popular, if not the most popular sites used to run leagues.
Another thing you want to be careful of is using the ADP as a so-called bible of where a player should be drafted. Just like rankings, nothing is definite. Where a player is taken should be comprised of multiple things such as your own opinion, league scoring system and the other owners in your draft.
That last one is important because you have to realize who you are playing against. Knowing your opponents preferences can give you a big leg up. If you know they will be targeting a player you like earlier than his given ADP, then you know you need to take him a bit earlier if you really want him.
Now let’s get to business. Below I am going to be going through a list of players who according to the FantasyPros.com ADP are either going to high or too low in my opinion.
Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears (7th Overall, 6th RB)
I have liked Forte for years. I mean come on what wasn’t there to like. He was the clear bell-cow back, in a league where bell-cow backs are not really a thing anymore.
Just this past season for the Bears he was on the field for 92% of their plays, which is unheard of for non-quarterbacks, totaling over 1800 yards and most impressively catching 102 passes.
I still like Forte, because he is still a good player, but I don’t like him as much this season as I have in past seasons. The main reason is because Marc Trestman is no longer the coach, and Trestman ran an offense that he thrived in. Instead in moves John Fox, who is known for using a running back by committee approach. This means Forte is in for quite a reduced workload. Combine that with a declining yards per carry that bottomed out at 3.9 last year and his value could really take a hit.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (10th, 2nd)
I really do like Aaron Rodgers and actually have him ranked as the No. 1 quarterback, so if you were just to look at the quarterback position ADP, then I would be forced to say he is ranked too low.
However, I’m looking at the overall position and I must say the first round is just too high. There is no reason to take any quarterback this high, unless you are in a two quarterback league or a super-flex. In more standard leagues, it is even questionable to take one in the second round, but near the end, when it is basically the third round is OK with me for a guy like Rodgers or Luck.
I’m a believer that you pass up too much value in other positions early on in drafts by taking a quarterback. Yes I realize that they score the most points overall, but the dropoff you can wind up with from taking your No. 1 RB or WR in round one or two, as compared to two and three can be massive. That decline is not as big as the one for your No. 2 at those positions when you move them back a round or two. That is why I don’t take a quarterback this early, not even Aaron Rodgers.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants (13th, 3rd)
Are we really going to promote a player who has had 12 games of success, to this level? Have we not learned our lesson in the past when rookies such as Doug Martin among others completely busted on us the next season.
Now I know it is not always the case. There are plenty of rookies who have great seasons and continue to have success. But I’m sorry, I’m not putting my money on Beckham returning almost first round value and especially not third best receiver value.
Keep this in mind. He missed the first four games last season due to a hamstring injury and is already being limited in camp for the same issue. Also his first four games were not very good and I don’t think it is a coincidence that Victor Cruz played in the first three of them. Cruz is looking like he will return this season and even though I believe Beckham is the No. 1 receiver in New York, I do think Cruz’s presence will affect the number of targets and overall value Beckham has.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks (28th, 2nd)
I still think Graham is the second best tight end in football, but I don’t think he is the No. 28 player in all of fantasy and refuse to take him this early.
The move to Seattle is going to hurt his overall value in a big way. He is going from a a team that passed the ball the second most last season, 659 times, to the team who passed the least, 454 times. That is a 31% drop in pass attempts. Of course Jimmy Graham should help increase those pass attempts, but I would bet you a lot of money that the Seahawks don’t all of a sudden pass the ball 150 more times to have over 600 attempts.
Graham is still Graham and he will have plenty of great games, just not as many of them. I think you will see too many two catch, 15 yard games from him, for me to want to take him this early.
Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders (43rd, 19th)
I can’t believe I’m actually saying a Raider is being drafted too low, but Murray seems like the real deal for me. The game that did it for me last year was the one he had four carries for 112 yards and two touchdowns. He ultimately left that game due to an injury, but not before showing the skill a lot of us were waiting to see get unleashed.
This offseason, questions about who is really going to be the Raiders starting running back have held his stock down. I don’t think you need to worry about that anymore with word coming out of camp that Murray has been taking all of the of the first-team reps. I mean come on, do you really think Roy Helu or Trent Richardson is really going to take the lead back role? Apparently the Raiders GM thinks Murray is the real deal too.
Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie: Latavius Murray ‘can do it all’ http://t.co/vorG8zxSny
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) August 6, 2015
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (64th, 9th)
Newton disappointed owners last season finishing as the No. 17 fantasy quarterback. He lost a lot of his weapons before last season and it showed overall numbers.
Even with the lack of weapons around him, he was still able to have a few stellar games that proves he is an elite fantasy quarterback.
This season will be his second with emerging superstar, Kelvin Benjamin. He also gets to add a counter punch to Benjamin in rookie Devin Funchess, which can only help Newton this year.
Another important thing to remember is Newton is entering the season healthy, as last year he had was coming off off season ankle surgery and the horrible car accident just before the season started, both of which clearly limited him early in the season, especially on the ground. Once he started running more he put up more consistent games and was the fantasy quarterback everybody was used to seeing.
Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints (118th, 45th)
Yes Marques Colston is old and has been irrelevant in fantasy leagues for the last three seasons, but this year will be different. The reason for this one is easy. Jimmy Graham saw 127 targets last year and somebody has to take them.
Of course I don’t expect all of them to go to Colston, but they are not going to go to Josh Hill or Ben Watson, not even combined. So who is left to pick up the scraps? Ahem, Marques Colston.
Get him up your draft boards now and don’t let him fall this far. In leagues where people are actually paying attention, he won’t last this long.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals (198th, 23rd)
I struggled to find a tight end whose ADP was low enough that it made me scratch my head. Obviously it took me a while, since I got all the way down to 198 overall.
Eifert’s value was limited in 2013 and his upside was in 2014 because Jermaine Gresham was on the roster. Well Gresham is long gone and Eifert is healthy entering the season. He has also apparently been uncoverable at camp. All of these factors make me believe that Eifert is being way underdrafted and is easily a top-12 tight end this season.
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