As the month of April draws to a close, our preseason calculations come to a crossroads with our rest of the season expectations in many instances.
In deciphering the data we form a blueprint for constructing a successful rotation.
Unfortunately, forecasting is still an onerous endeavor and sometimes execution gets in the way.
When investing in volatile markets with limited blue chip commodities available, procuring the correct assembly of arms is paramount in obtaining the optimal outcome.
This opening month of baseball can best be described as a call to arms, aces in crisis.
This week our exercise will focus on the recalibration the 2016 starting pitcher market.
Top Thirty Starting Pitchers
|Player||Position||Team||ERA||FIP||K%||K-BB%||Previous Rank April 1st
Deconstructing The Top Thirty
2.Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
Jake jumped from the four spot up to number two, Arrieta recorded his second no hitter last week in Cincinnati and that magical run from last season continues on. Yes, his velocity is down, strikeouts are down but until further notice he’s second in line to the throne.
3.Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
Syndergaard has shot up the rankings and deservingly so, Thor is wielding a mighty hammer and Major League Baseball is on notice. The transformation came sooner than later and the best is yet to come.
12.Matt Harvey, New York Mets
Harvey has been inconsistent to start the 2016 campaign, showing glimpses of greatness that have been overshadowed by frustration. Matt has tumbled outside the top ten but I wouldn’t bet against the Dark Knight returning to his former glory.
18.Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks
Obviously not the start Arizona envisioned when they signed Greinke to that lucrative long term deal. Zack is one of the game’s most cerebral pitchers and talented usually wins out, a correction is coming and an awful April will be a distant memory.
22.Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays
“CTM is scooping up shares of Smyly because this injury arm is dripping with potential. The downside is limited when factoring in his current price but the profit could be sizable. Emerging markets or depressed stocks that payoff are powerful portfolio pieces. Rotation construction is immensely important and after securing a solid foundation, investing in Drew is a fantastic upside play.” – 2016 Starting Pitcher Index
28.Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
Has mister consistent taken his game next level?
Is this Quintana 2.0, can he sustain the spike in strikeouts?
If so a windfall of riches await his owners.
— Joe Ostrowski (@JoeO670) April 30, 2016
30.Rich Hill, Oakland Athletics
I’ve stated in the past starting Rich Hill is like an adrenaline rush, your scared and exciting at the same time. What does the future hold for him, I honestly don’t know but his numbers dating back to last September are off the charts. Ride the wave!
Obvious omissions were Carlos Carrasco due to injury, Jordan Zimmermann might be the most egregious considering his fantastic start but I’m expecting him to give back some early season gains and finally Michael Wacha just missing the cut.
Here are five intriguing names I’ll be monitoring in May, Steven Matz, Aaron Nola, Drew Pomeranz, Taijuan Walker and Vincent Velasquez, who could be joining next month’s index.