As with all of our lineup recommendations, these FanDuel Picks are based on the information we have at the time of posting. Make sure you keep an eye on the weather and all of the latest lineup changes.
Daily Fantasy Baseball is all about the long play. Most uneducated people think it’s about instant gratification and subsequent heartbreak, but in reality, even the top players lose plenty. They just set the losses aside and keep putting the odds in their favor. Eventually they come out ahead, whether it’s through a gradual climb through 50/50s and smaller tournaments, or through a couple big hits in larger formats.
That’s where our MLB DFS Picks come in. We can’t guarantee a winning lineup on any one specific day, but we can promise to point out nice matchups and maybe give you some good ideas to think about. The rest is really up to you.
In order to do that we need to be prepared. Here are the links you need to study for the night’s action and of course following that are my MLB DFS Picks for Friday, May 6, 2016.
Links for MLB Weather:
Probable Pitchers and Lineups:
Batter vs. Pitcher: I’m not much of a believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. You can read why here. Still, a lot of people use this data and I have to admit occasionally taking a pick when I make my DraftKings picks, so here are the two that are most useful in my opinion.
FanDuel Strategy for the Day
It’s a divided schedule today, with seven games on the early slate and nine under the lights. And yes that’s a total of 16 games, as the Cubs and Padres have a day/night double-dip to make up for Monday’s rainout.
In order to give this column a little bit longer shelf life, I’m going to gear my MLB DFS Picks for the late slate. You early risers are on your own.
So should our strategy change when we have a limited field? Mine does. I typically focus on 50/50s in these columns, but even in those, I’m going to be a little more contrarian today. And in larger GPPs even more so. There’s going to be lot of overlap on the players with obvious matchup advantages. I’ll try to dig a little deeper on days like this with a few roster slots that will differentiate my team a little more.
MLB DFS Picks for Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Best Starting Pitchers for the Day
Noah Syndergaar is always tempting, but he’s going to be a popular pick today and his cost will make it tough to get the hitters I feel like I need.
I’m looking at two other matchups.
The first is John Lackey at home against San Diego. The Padres are playing better than they were a few weeks ago, but are still nothing to fear. Lackey has been a bit of a roller coaster this season, with two 11-strikeout games, but also a couple where he gave up six earned runs. The Cubs are 25-6 so far and have to be a heavy favorite here, but he does face Drew Pomeranz, who has been very good.
The pitcher I like best today is Juan Nicasio. He faces an unimposing Cincinnati lineup and an opposing pitcher in Alfredo Simon, who has an ERA above 9.00. Nicasio hasn’t been quite the beast he was in Spring Training, but a 3.16 ERA and over a strikeout per inning is still pretty nice. You heard it here folks, I’m calling Juan Nicasio’s first double-digit strikeout performance of 2016.
Top MLB DFS Picks at Each Position
Here are two choices at each position; one is the best bet for production and the other is a lower priced option with a favorable outlook.
I’m not a fan of spending big on catching. Once you get past Buster Posey, it’s just a big pile of mediocrity. So the plan is to use that mediocrity.
Stephen Vogt ($2,500) vs. Rick Porcello (RHP) – Vogt has not gotten off to the hot start he did last year, but the matchup and ballpark are there for a nice night, and the price tag lets me put more money toward a big bopper or two elsewhere.
J.T. Realmuto ($2,700) vs. Chase Anderson (RHP) – Realmuto is hitting .302 and has pretty neutral splits thus far in his career. Despite the nice last name, Anderson has really struggled this year, allowing eight homers in just over 29 innings pitched to go along with his 6.44 ERA. Realmuto also offers the potential for a stolen base; something you can’t hope for with any other catcher.
David Ortiz ($4,300) vs. Eric Surkamp (LHP) – Surkamp is a soft-tossing lefty. That’s the bright side. He’s getting rocked to a 5.59 ERA this season, and lest you think it’s a small sample size, his career ERA is 6.25. Big Papi is doing Big Papi things, hitting over .300 against both lefties and righties so far, with nine home runs. He’s really the only power hitting first baseman in the late slate with a juicy matchup.
John Jaso ($3,000) vs. Alfredo Simon (RHP) – With that shortage of elite matchups at first base, tonight be the rare occasion when you decide to save some money at first. Jaso doesn’t offer a ton of power, but he does get on base plenty. Between his bat and Simon’s arm, there has to be some positive points in store. This is the cheap safe play, and I’m likely taking it to spend my money in the outfield.
Dustin Pedroia ($3,500) vs. Eric Surkamp (LHP) – Pedroia hasn’t delivered on the stolen bases he promised this spring, but everything else is looking good. The Red Sox will score six=plus runs tonight and Pedroia should be heavily involved.
Josh Harrison ($3,200) vs. Alfredo Simon (RHP) – Honestly the matchups for the late slate are tough. The elite second basemen play early and most of the top options for the late schedule have tough matchups. I may be picking on Simon, but Harrison has also done his share of nice things. He’s hit just one HR, but is batting over .300 and can add value through his legs.
Kris Bryant ($4,600) vs. Drew Pomeranz (LHP) – Bryant’s power really hasn’t kicked in yet, but he’s hitting for average and doing a great job of getting on base. He’s got some slightly reversed career splits, but I do think Pomeranz plays into his strengths. The tough matchups continue at the hot corner, but Bryant is the one guy you may want to spend the money on.
Maikel Franco ($2,800) vs. Jhoulys Chacin (RHP) – Do you ever just look at a salary on FanDuel and wonder why? Franco is off to a bit of a slow start, but he’s still on pace for 30-plus HRs and 90-plus RBIs. Pair that with career splits that are pretty heavily skewed toward right-handed pitching and you have a nice matchup. Chacin is not as bad as his 5.40 ERA would suggest, but he’s allowed a .345 wOBA to right-handed hitters so far this season.
Xander Bogaerts ($4,100) vs. Eric Surkamp (LHP) – Bogaerts is the most expensive shortstop for the late slates and it’s because he’s averaging the most points per game. Bogaerts hits .328 lieftime against LHP. Surkamp is not just any left-handed pitcher, and that’s not a compliment.
Javier Baez ($2,500) vs. Drew Pomeranz (LHP) – You’ll have to check the lineup for the second half of the Cubs, double-header, but Baez will likely be in the lineup for one of the games and makes a nice low-cost option.
Mookie Betts ($4,100) vs. Eric Surkamp (LHP) – Good matchup against a lefty and a hot Red Sox lineup. What’s not to like?
Ryan Braun ($4,300) vs. Wei-Yin Chen (LHP) – Most Fantasy owners expected a little surge from Chen with the move to the NL, but he pretty much looks like the same mid-level pitcher. Braun is off to a great start and has always pounded left-handers (.336 lifetime Avg.).
Giancarlo Stanton ($4,400) vs. Chase Anderson (RHP) – I usually avoid recommending studs like Stanton because it seems so obvious. In this thin slate though, he’s an almost must-start. Anderson gives up lots of long flies and Stanton hits even longer ones. Just take the obvious play here.
Gregory Polanco ($3,400) vs. Alfredo Simon (RHP) – Polanco seems to be in the middle of at least a mini-breakout and it’s all on the back of his numbers vs. right-handed pitchers. There’s speed, pop, and at least against RHP, he gets on base. I expect the Pirates to knock Simon around, with Polanco right in the middle of it.
Michael Taylor ($2,200) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (RHP) – You have to save some bucks somewhere. Taylor hasn’t been able to build off his hot spring, but he still represents a nice power/speed mix. Taylor did not play last night, so there’s a good chance he’ll be in there tonight.
My FanDuel Lineup for Late Slate on Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Hopefully you’ve found something in my MLB DFS picks to help you out. It’s been an uneven season thus far, but trends are starting to form and hopefully you’ll get in your DFS rhythm.
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