As with all of our lineup recommendations, these FanDuel Picks are based on the information we have at the time of posting. Make sure you keep an eye on the weather and all of the latest lineup changes.
Hey, it turns out Trevor Story is neither Honus Wagner nor Tuffy Rhodes, but somewhere in between. Go figure.
And the minute you think you can trust Derek Holland, he goes and gives you an 11-earned run present. Hope you didn’t try to go all contrarian and use a left-hander against the Jays in Toronto. On second thought, that’s not contrarian, just stupid.
That’s the thing with Daily Fantasy Baseball, people do stupid things and sometimes they pay off. The key is doing smart things over an extended time period. Do that and things will be just fine in the end.
In order to do those smart things we need to be prepared. Here are the links you need to study for the night’s action and of course following that are my MLB DFS Picks for Friday, May 6, 2016.
Links for MLB Weather:
Probable Pitchers and Lineups:
Batter vs. Pitcher: I’m not much of a believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. You can read why here. Still, a lot of people use this data and I have to admit occasionally taking a pick when I make my DraftKings picks, so here are the two that are most useful in my opinion.
FanDuel Strategy for the Day
I’m not a big fan of killing birds (eating them, yes), but in the case of my MLB DFS Picks, I’ll make an exception and kill two with one stone. I use the FantasyPros MLB Daily Fantasy Accuracy Challenge to help me prepare this article. The FantasyPros MLB DFAC is a small tournament of 45 industry pros. In a tournament this size that also acrues standings over the course of the season, I use a strategy more geared toward safety; strategies and player selection that you would normally see in 50/50 contests. Keep that in mind as you consider my DFS picks.
With FanDuel only using one pitcher, you have to nail it with this selection. Fortunately it looks like there are a multitude of ways to do that today.
My first impression is that it will be hard to pass up Noah Syndergaard, who travels to San Diego to face the Padres. The San Diego offense has pepped up a little, but they are still second in all of baseball in strikeouts. Syndergaard had a very human outing last time out, so I’m expecting him to live up to the Thor moniker this time around.
I’m also looking at Vince Velasquez in Miami. He leads all of today’s starters in in points per game and is $2300 cheaper than Syndergaard. The Marlins offense is a bit of a challenge though. They haven’t scored a ton of runs, but only five MLB have struck out less.
A much cheaper option that intrigues me is Rich Hill. He’s on the road against a Baltimore offense that can hit the long ball, but is surprisingly just 18th in baseball in runs scored. Maybe even more surprisingly they are also 18th in MLB in strikeouts. I’m not sure all this matters much to be honest. Rich Hill is a pitcher who defies conventional wisdom most of the time. If he has good command of his fastball and elite curve, we’re going to see plenty of Ks. If not, it could get ugly. He’s strung together three straight solid games and seems to be building some consistency, so he can’t be ignored. He might be just the right mix of upside and safety for a small tournament like this. With plenty of strong pitchers going today, he may be a bit of a contrarian pick as well.
As I usually do, I’ll build two lineups. One with an expensive ace, and another with a lower priced pitcher with upside. Today I’ll use Syndergaard and Hill for this purpose. You decide which lineup you like better.
MLB DFS Picks for Friday, May 6, 2016
Top Starting to Target for Stacking
Ricky Nolasco has been downright almost adequate so far this season, but I like the White Sox to rough him up in Chicago tonight. Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier should get some good swings in, and left-handed hitters like Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera (switch-hitter) are very solid considerations.
The other two pitchers I really want to stack against are Cory Rasmus and Tyler Cravy, but coming up with a stack of Tampa Bay Rays or MIlwaukee Brewers could be a challenge. Maybe we could mix and match.
Top MLB DFS Picks at Each Position
Here are two choices at each position; one is the best bet for production and the other is a lower priced option with a favorable outlook.
I’m not a fan of spending big on catching. Once you get past Buster Posey, it’s just a big pile of mediocrity. So the plan is to use that mediocrity.
Stephen Vogt ($2,700) vs. Mike Wright (RHP) – Vogt has not gotten off to the hot start he did last year, but the matchup and ballpark are there for a nice night.
Curt Casali ($2,500) vs. Cory Rasmus (RHP) – Catcher pricing is very flaky on FanDuel right now. Casali should be a lot cheaper. Evidently they see that he’s been swinging the bat pretty well lately, and against Rasmus, he’s as good a bet as any of the other cheap catchers to go yard.
Joey Votto ($3,500) vs. Tyler Cravy (RHP) – Sometimes you choose a hitter because of a poor opposing pitcher. When that hitter also happens to be Joey Votto, you can be very happy. Votto has been scuffling, but he’s an on-base machine with enough power to do major damage. He seems like the perfect pick in 50/50s or a small tournament like this.
Adam Lind ($2,200) vs. Doug Fister (RHP) – Lind has not adjusted very well to the ballpark in Seattle, but this game will be played in Houston and Fister should be a good matchup for Lind.
Robinson Cano ($3,900) vs. Doug Fister (RHP) – After a bit of a slow start in the average department, Cano looks a lot like he did in the second half of 2015. He’s crushing right-handed pitching at a .366 rate, with eight of his nine homers. He’s also 12 for his last 22 with five runs and six RBIs in his last five games. Yep, he’s hot.
Brandon Phillips ($2,300) vs. Tyler Cravy (RHP) – You don’t hear a peep about him, but Phillips is looking a lot like the bounce-back player we were surprised by in 2015. He’s got a little speed, a little pop, and his career splits are basically neutral. Looks like a nice spot to save a few bucks if you ask me.
Todd Frazier ($3,800) vs. Ricky Nolasco (RHP) – Also like Manny Machado, but if I’m going with Rich Hill… Hmmm. Frazier is not hitting for average, but the power is still there. The White Sox should ding Nolasco up, so if Frazier produces, there’s high potential for a multi-RBI day.
Maikel Franco ($2,800) vs. Wei-Yin Chen (LHP) – After a scorching spring Franco is out of the blocks slow. Do not worry, that’s just the normal ebb and flow of baseball. Franco’s reverse splits are a bit concerning, but it’s a limited sample and the price here makes him an extreme value.
Troy Tulowitzki ($3,000) vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP) – This pick comes from the scouting side. Tulo is in a bit of a funk, but he hits the low ball well and at this price I like the risk. With that said, I think shortstop is the position I will likely look to save money and go with a cheaper option.
Brad Miller ($2,200) vs. Cory Rasmus (RHP) – Don’t let the overall seasopn numbers fool you. Miller has been almost mediocre over his last eight games. Mill does have power and a bit of speed though, and the matchup is a nice one. It’s a low-cost gamble, but I like Miller to provide at least a few points tonight. A ringing endorsement I know.
Mookie Betts ($3,900) vs. Michael Pineda (RHP) – We can talk about Pineda’s nice peripherals all we want, but he’s still getting pounded. Betts has shown that he can handle good fastballs, so if Pineda doesn’t get the slider over Betts will have a field day. Add in the potential for a stolen base or two and you get safety and upside.
J.D. Martinez ($2,900) vs. Cole Hamels (LHP) – Cole Hamels is a fine pitcher and Martinez is off to a slow start, but the price tag is way too low. Martinez will go off for a couple homers and five RBIs soon. I’ll settle for one long ball and a couple ribbies tonight.
Melky Cabrera ($2,800) vs. Ricky Nolasco (RHP) – Cabrera is a solid hitter, who’s always had slightly better numbers against right-handed pitchers. Nolasco is a very hittable pitcher who is likely to take some lumps in a hitter’s park. I like teammate Adam Eaton as well, but he’s $400 more expensive
Miguel Sano ($3,200) vs. Mat Latos (RHP) – The sparks are there. When does the fire start? How about tonight against a pitcher who’s striking out nobody and lacks a putaway pitch to deal with a hitter like Sano.
My FanDuel Lineups for Friday, May 6, 2016
With Cheap Pitcher
With High Priced Pitcher
Hopefully you’ve found something in my MLB DFS picks to help you out. It’s been an uneven season thus far, but trends are starting to form and hopefully you’ll get in your DFS rhythm.
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