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A brand new Fantasy Football season is right around the corner. What better way to prepare for your drafts than digging into some ADP analysis. Over the next week or so, we will identify three mispriced pairs of players for each of quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends.

The process is pretty simple. We will compare consensus projections against consensus ADPs for pairs of players and analyze the discrepancy. In order to eliminate any biases, we will use www.fantasypros.com since they do a great job of aggregating industry data.

In the financial world, asset prices should reflect both potential risk and return. In addition, if two assets have the same risk and expected return, then their prices should be equal. Valuing Fantasy Football assets should be no different. Two players with similar expected statistics should have similar ADPs.

In many cases an ADP gap is warranted with these mispriced pairs; however, the current ADP gap is likely much too large given the slight difference is projections.

Today, we start things off with a little quarterback ADP analysis. Given the different skill sets of the signal caller position, we will make sure that the player’s attributes in any comparison are consistent.

 

Quarterback ADP Analysis: Mispriced Pairs

 

The Running QB Race

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

 

Pass Yds Pass TDs Pass INTs Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points ADP
2015 actual 4,024 34 8 553 1 344
2016 projection 3,785 29 11 579 3 316 42

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills

 

Pass Yds Pass TDs Pass INTs Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points ADP
2015 actual 3,035 20 6 568 4 277
2016 projection 3,397 21 11 537 4 267 139

 

Wilson is coming off a career year and the consensus 2016 forecast is essentially for a repeat performance, which seems fair. There is also no doubt that Wilson is the more proven commodity and that he should be within the top tier of quarterbacks this year. I find his ADP a touch high given the depth at the position this year; however, I usually follow the strategy of waiting on quarterbacks in general.

After meddling through four seasons with the Ravens, Taylor took the reigns in Buffalo and put together a solid campaign last year. In fact, Taylor finished fifth (right after Wilson) in YPA and seventh in QB rating (Wilson was first). When you look at the consensus forecasts for next year, Taylor’s rushing stats look to be nearly identical to Wilson’s. Assuming they both play a full season in 2016 (Taylor only saw action in 14 last year) and with Taylor now having more experience as a team’s starting quarterback, you can quickly see how the gap between the two should narrow.

To put it simply, the ADP gap is too large for these similar players. This is more about Taylor being undervalued than Wilson being overvalued. Taylor has the ninth highest point projection, but only the 18th best ADP. That doesn’t feel right. It makes a ton of sense to pass on Wilson and solidify other skill positions and wait for Taylor nearly 100 picks later. You will likely lose a small amount of production, but it will be dwarfed by the gain you pick up elsewhere.

 

The Vet versus The New Kid On The Block

Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

 

Pass Yds Pass TDs Pass INTs Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points ADP
2015 actual 4,671 35 11 24 1 320
2016 projection 4,438 30 14 56 1 275 66

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins

 

Pass Yds Pass TDs Pass INTs Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points ADP
2015 actual 4,166 29 11 48 5 304
2016 projection 4,190 26 15 82 3 259 115

 

Palmer, fresh off the best season of his career, set new personal bests in passing yards, YPA, TDs, and QB rating. It is noteworthy and rare that a 36-year-old would have a career year in his 12th season. The consensus forecast is for Palmer to regress slightly in 2016, but not that much, as it would still stand as his second-best season of his career. The Cardinals also look to have a solid trio of running backs, led by David Johnson, which could act to decrease the reliance on Palmer’s arm.

Cousins fared well in his inaugural campaign as the Redskins’ undisputed starting quarterback. Last year according to Yahoo, he finished with the eighth most Fantasy points among quarterbacks, only 16 points behind the fifth ranked Palmer. As we look towards 2016, Washington’s run game appears to be a weak point. But their receiving core seems quite deep, especially with the addition of Josh Doctson. Cousins seems likely to build upon his breakout campaign and have a solid year.

With a projection gap of only 16 Fantasy points, it seems smart to pass on Palmer and wait the five rounds and pick up essentially the same production. It seems like a 50/50 bet on whether Palmer or Cousins finishes with a better Fantasy season next year.

 

The Battle of Consistency

Eli Manning, New York Giants

 

Pass Yds Pass TDs Pass INTs Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points ADP
2015 actual 4,436 35 14 61 0 302
2016 projection 4,349 30 15 63 1 266 87

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

 

Pass Yds Pass TDs Pass INTs Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points ADP
2015 actual 4,262 32 13 159 1 303
2016 projection 4,202 26 14 127 1 258 137

 

Manning had another productive year in 2015 and expectations for next year are high given the likely contribution of Sterling Shepard and possibly even Victor Cruz. The consensus 2016 forecast for Manning looks reliable, especially when you consider how consistent he has been over the past two years. Manning is who he is and his actual performance next year should not deviate too far from expectations.

Stafford was once again a reliable option last year, and he actually beat out Manning in terms of Fantasy points (Yahoo scoring), finishing with the ninth best total among quarterbacks. There has been a fair amount of cold water thrown on Stafford as we head into this year, and it all seems to stem from the retirement of Calvin Johnson. There is no question that Johnson will be missed, but the additions of Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin should help fill the void, along with improved production from the tight end position.

Given that Stafford outgained Manning in 2015 and the fact that only an eight Fantasy point projection gap exists, it seems odd that Manning is going 60 spots ahead of Stafford. Once again, it makes sense to wait on quarterbacks by passing on Manning and scooping up Stafford later on in your draft.

 

Uncovering value is all about gauging price against expectations. When you perform by being on the right side of the ledger of these three mispriced pairs, you are setting yourself up for success. Make sure you stay tuned to SCFE and all of the solid Fantasy Football coverage including the next installment of the Mispriced Pairs series when we look at wide receivers.

Here are a few links that you should have bookmarked:

The 2016 SCFE Fantasy Football Draft Kit

The Best Fantasy Football Draft Tool Ever

FantasyPros Draft Wizard

FantasyPros Assistant

 

Data courtesy of www.espn.com and www.fantasypros.com

 

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