What kind of investor are you? Do you prefer the conservative or aggressive approach? The financial markets and Fantasy Baseball landscape share similar characteristics, when constructing a portfolio or building your team.
There is no standard formula or edict of absolution established that guarantees future success based on past performance. There are multiple strategies to consider but discovering what works for you is an integral component to achieving prosperity. Most rely on indicators and advanced metrics in determining educated assumptions but even these tools are not foolproof.
Knowing the market is critical when interpreting and calculating a game plan. Laying the foundation, elements of a successful blue print will consist of three characteristics blue chips, value and growth stocks. The question is how will you segment your dispersal of these units.
“Everyone has a plan — until they get punched in the face.” — Mike Tyson
I’m the anti-mock draft guy — and maybe it’s just me, but I’m of the belief people act differently when money is on the line.
Prices for the Top Fantasy Baseball Players
Here is a composite of four NFBC private $250 auctions ranging from January 4 to February 6, and price points for the Sweet 16 Fantasy Baseball players in auctions and drafts to date.
1. Mike Trout, OF, L.A. Angels
AVG $49.75 [H $51 v L $47] NFBC ADP #1 (1)
The golden child and 2014 American League MVP has gone No. 1 overall in every NFBC draft to date, enough said.
2. Clayton Kershaw, SP, L.A. Dodgers
AVG $43.25 [H $45 v L $41] NFBC ADP #4 (2 v 4)
The reigning National League Cy Young Award and MVP winner is the second coming of the golden arm. Kershaw is to pitchers what Trout is to hitters.
3. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami
AVG $42.00 [H $43 v L $41] NFBC ADP #4 (2 v 7)
Power is being valued at a premium and Giancarlo owns prodigious power.
4.Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh
AVG $40.00 [H $41 v L $39] NFBC ADP #4 (2 v 9)
“Cutch” is consistently awesome and costs almost $10 less than Trout in this exercise.
Best career on-base percentage among active center fielders: .395 – Mike Trout .385 – Andrew McCutchen .366 – Dexter Fowler .359 – Jon Jay
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) February 9, 2015
5.Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit
AVG $37.75 [H $39 v L $36] NFBC ADP #5 (2 v 9)
Miggy is a monster at the plate and being discounted due to an ankle injury.
6. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona
AVG $37.75 [H $39 v L $36] NFBC ADP #5 (2 v 9)
A wrist injury ended his 2014 season, but Goldie remains Fantasy GOLD heading into the 2015 season.
7. Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
AVG $38.00 [H $36 v L $39] NFBC ADP #7 (2 v 10)
The American League Rookie of the Year and Cuban Commandeer: Is an encore performance or a sophomore slump on the horizon?
8. Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee
AVG $38.25 [H $41 v L $39] NFBC ADP #8 (4 v 12)
Since the second half of the 2012 season “Midwest CarGo” has been one of the ELITE fantasy options in the game.
9. Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto
AVG $32.25 [H $35 v L $29] NFBC ADP #11 (7 v 20)
“Joey Bats” has averaged 122 G, 30 HR, 80 RBI, 82 R and 6 SB over the past three (2012-14) seasons, which he has posted .377 OBP .516 SLG .893 OPS & 145 OPS+. That certainly makes him one of the top Fantasy Baseball players for 2015.
10. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle
AVG $36.25 [H $39 v L $33] NFBC ADP #12 (7 v 22)
The King is a constituent of the first round, joining Kershaw as the only two starting pitchers to own this moniker and deservedly so. Felix’s last three seasons: 2.73 ERA, 136 ERA+, 2.67 FIP, 9.2 K/9 and 4.64 K/BB.
11.Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Toronto
AVG $31.50 [H $34 v L $29] NFBC ADP #12 (9 v 20)
[Tweet “Oh Canada! EE’s average of last 3 yrs up north: 86 runs, 37 HR and 104 RBI. — via @CTMBaseball”]
12. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston
AVG $31.50 [H $33 v L $30] NFBC ADP #12 (3 v 21)
“Little Big League,” the pint-sized sensation, posted an historic season and is one of only five players (Ty Cobb 3x, George Sisler, Tris Speaker and Ichiro Suzuki) to achieve this accomplishment since 1901: H>=220, BA>=.340 and SB>=50 (B-R Play Index).
13.Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, Washington
AVG $31.50 [H $32 v L $30] NFBC ADP #13 (3 v 24)
A healthy Rendon produced the promise of his potential in 2014, and dual-position eligibility is just another perk to his game. Stock up!
14. Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore
AVG $29.75 [H $30 v L $29] NFBC ADP #15 (10 v 24)
The Rodney Dangerfield of Fantasy Baseball, all Adam does is manufacture statistics and yield positive dividends year in and year out.
Adam Jones over last three seasons: 2012: .287, 32 HR, 186 H, 648 AB 2013: .285, 33 HR, 186 H, 653 AB. 2014: .281, 29 HR, 181 H, 644 AB
— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) February 10, 2015
15.Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado
AVG $28.75 [H $29 v L $28] NFBC ADP #17 (6 v 27)
If only we could pencil in Tulo for 600 AB, he’d be in the Trout-osphere because of production and position scarcity.
16.Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
AVG $32.25 [H $34 v L $31] NFBC ADP #17 (9 v 25)
The Italian Stallion from the North Side of Chicago is only 25 years old and he owns burgeoning power. Rizzo put up a .286 BA, which was supported by .286 xBA and .240 ISO. What’s not to like here?
These are early indicators — hey pitchers and catchers haven’t even reported yet — but draft season is rapidly approaching. Now is the time to ask yourself if you are willing to pay the premium on the top Fantasy Baseball players or will you manage your finances differently?
The composite consists of veteran NFBC players including last season’s Main Event winner and some industry peeps consisting of some guy who gets referred to as Lord.
My philosophy is somewhat contrarian as I remain resolute on investing in a strong starting pitching foundation and you can see my doctrine in action with the 2015 Starting Pitcher Index at ctmbaseball.com.
I will leave you with this: There are bulls, bears — and pigs get slaughtered.
Adam Jones Photo Credit: Keith Allison