One of my favorite posts near the end of Fantasy Football draft season is seeing every analyst’s picks for sleepers, busts, breakouts and top scorers. It is the easy to pull up, reference tool to hold us all accountable for our predictions.
With so much information that gets spewed from all corners of the Fantasy Football community, actual opinions on players get lost in the message. If you have read any of my weekly posts, I like to hold myself accountable as much as possible. I like to show in a quantifiable way that taking my advice is worth it. I mean if I can’t, then why read?
Everyone has their different meanings of sleepers, busts, breakouts and top scorers. Yes, even top scorers, since some people still love standard scoring. For that reason, our version of sleepers, busts, breakouts and top scorers has set parameters. A “sleeper” is a player that is being drafted outside of the Top 36 at RB/WR or Top 20 at TE/QB, that will greatly outperform their draft position. A “bust” is someone being drafted inside the Top 24 at RB/WR or Top 12 at TE/QB that will not live up to their draft positioning.
A “breakout” is someone that is being drafted in almost every draft, but not as a starter. This player will become a must-start, near-elite player by the end of the year. The top scorer is literally who you think will score the most Fantasy Points, assuming some sort of PPR scoring.
So without further ado, here is the SCFE Staff predictions for sleepers, busts, breakouts and top scorers at each position.
SCFE Staff Predictions: Sleepers, Busts, Breakouts and Top Scorers
|Sleeper||Case Keenum||Case Keenum||Sam Bradford||Derek Carr||Andy Dalton||Jameis Winston|
|Bust||Carson Wentz||Deshaun Watson||Ben Roethlisberger||Andrew Luck||Carson Wentz||Carson Wentz|
|Breakout||Patrick Mahomes||Patrick Mahomes||Jimmy Garoppolo||Patrick Mahomes||Patrick Mahomes|
|Top Scorer||Philip Rivers||Aaron Rodgers||Deshaun Watson||Cam Newton||Aaron Rodgers|
- As you can guess, there’s a wide variety of quarterback sleepers. The position is DEEEEP, so there are quite a few late-round options.
- Those of us out on Wentz had these submitted before he was deemed out for Week 1. I’ve thought the whole time that he will miss multiple games, but his ADP suggested otherwise.
- It’s nice to see that I am not just a Texas Tech-homer for Mahomes, as he is by far the leading candidate to breakout.
- For the first time since we have been doing this, Rodgers is not the overwhelming pick for top scorer. I went way outside the box with Rivers, but I really think that this is his year.
|Sleeper||Jordan Wilkins||Rashad Penny||Aaron Jones||Bilal Powell||Adrian Peterson||Corey Clement|
|Bust||Kareem Hunt||Saquon Barkley||Kenyan Drake||Lamar Miller||Jerick McKinnon||LeSean McCoy|
|Breakout||Royce Freeman||Jerick McKinnon||Saquon Barkley||Christian McCaffrey||Kenyan Drake|
|Top Scorer||LeVeon Bell||Todd Gurley||David Johnson||Ezekiel Elliott||David Johnson|
- There is no crossover with the sleeper picks at running back, as all six of us went completely different directions.
- Obviously these were submitted before the McKinnon injury, so disregard the picks of him.
- We have some head-to-head prediction action with both Kenyan Drake and Saquon Barkley appearing both on the breakout and bust lists. I actually like both of them, so I would side on the breakout side of things.
- I am going to hold strong with Bell as my top scorer, because I do not think he will miss a game. Once he is back, the Steelers are going to ride him until the wheels fall off knowing full well he will be wearing a different jersey next season.
|Sleeper||Mike Williams||Mike Williams||Robby Anderson||Tyler Lockett||Julian Edelman||Keelan Cole|
|Bust||Mike Evans||Doug Baldwin||Marvin Jones||Golden Tate||Mike Evans||Adam Thielen|
|Breakout||Chris Hogan||Jamison Crowder||Doug Baldwin||Kenny Stills||JuJu Smith-Schuster||Corey Davis|
|Top Scorer||Antonio Brown||DeAndre Hopkins||Antonio Brown||DeAndre Hopkins||Antonio Brown|
- Both Gonos and I like the second-year sleeper potential with the Chargers’ Williams. Strausberg also agrees with me on Robby Anderson.
- On the other end of the spectrum, Postma is on my side with thinking Mike Evans is being over-drafted.
- There is another head-to-head prediction battle, this time between Gonos and Strausberg over Doug Baldwin. I’m definitely with Strausberg here, as I think Baldwin will be ready to go by Sunday and will be a Top-5 receiver this year.
- Delaney is also with my on my wide receiver breakouts.
- We are split up between the top two receivers on draft boards as to who will score the most. I just cannot go away from Brown at this point.
|Sleeper||Vernon Davis||O.J. Howard||Ricky Seals-Jones||Austin Hooper||Ricky Seals-Jones||Ben Watson|
|Bust||Jordan Reed||Evan Engram||Jimmy Graham||Evan Engram||Jordan Reed||Evan Engram|
|Breakout||Kyle Rudolph||Trey Burton||George Kittle||Trey Burton||Trey Burton|
|Top Scorer||Travis Kelce||Rob Gronkowski||Rob Gronkowski||Travis Kelce||Rob Gronkowski|
- Ricky Seals-Jones is the popular pick as a sleeper.
- I obviously have a different outlook on the Redskins’ tight ends than most. I do not think Jordan Reed stays on the field and I know for a fact that Alex Smith and Vernon Davis have solid chemistry.
- Most of my comrades are down on Evan Engram and I tend to agree. There are already concussion red flags before his second season and we saw what that has done to Jordan Reed’s career.
- If you don’t believe me about Kyle Rudolph breaking out, check out my 55 Observations from earlier this summer.
- We are also split on the top two tight end options, just like receivers.
That’s it for the sleepers, busts, breakouts and top scorers! Be sure to bookmark this page to let us know how we did after the season!
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