Connect with us

Welcome back to this weeks version of missives from the mound as we look back with a foundation for the future.

The starting pitcher market is an index where the participants are scrutinized with practically every pitch.

There are various methods to calculate a starting pitchers’ success, discover an emerging market and recognize over-achievement.

Whatever tools you implement, even the most confident and skillful player can come unnerved in this ever-fluctuating arena.

Let’s sift through the small sample we have to date and identify signals for future success from these starting pitchers.

Finding Value in Starting Pitchers

Strong Start

Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets (NFBC ADP 41.91)

 

We all know Syndergaard has been outstanding after two starts and is a supreme talent, but his numbers are mind numbing. Thor did come with a premium price tag on draft day, though.

• 13.0 IP
• 21 K
• 2 BB
• 1 R
• 0.69 ERA
• 0.49 FIP

Vincent Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies (NFBC ADP 282.13)

Velasquez was acquired from Houston in the Ken Giles trade this past off-season and has been fantastic to start the season. Velasquez was basically free loot on draft day because of his uncertainty to make the Phillies Opening Day roster.

• 15 IP
• 25 K
• 3 BB
• 0 R
• 0.00 ERA
• -0.38 FIP

 

Value Pitcher

Here are some profit driven starting pitchers that were affordable on draft day and are providing the foundation for optimism early on.

Our focus for this task is on the fundamentals due to the lack of data. In looking past the obvious and some unsightly earned run averages, we can unearth some hidden gems or reaffirm our beliefs for the 2016 season.

All National Fantasy Average Draft Positions are from March 1 through April 3.

Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays (NFBC ADP 143.62)

 

Jake has shown flashes over the past two seasons and last year he was well on his way but an injury halted his success. Odorizzi offers upside and his owners could be handsomely rewarded in 2016.

• 11.2 IP
• 14 K
• 2 BB

Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds (NFBC ADP 150.89)

Raisel was all the rage this off-season creating great debate, but when you muted the noise it was clear that Iglesias was a talent worth investing in.

• 11.2 IP
• 12 K
• 2 BB

Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays (NFBC ADP 156.76)

Drew has provided small samples of success that have speculators smiling but health has always been a hindrance.

• 13.2 IP
• 16 K
• 2 BB

Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers (NFBC ADP 169.57)

 

I mentioned Maeda last week but the prevailing thought surrounding Kenta is sell him in the second half. I’m not sure that’s the prudent thing to do.

• 12.0 IP
• 8 K
• 0 BB

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays (NFBC ADP 216.05)

The Matt Moore revival started last September and swelled during Spring Training, I’ll admit I was late to the party, but I did secure shares in my New York Main Event and Online Champion Plus leagues. I guess I’ve been converted.

• 12.0 IP
• 11 K
• 3 BB

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (NFBC ADP 242.10)

 

I invested heavily in Nola as a steady but not spectacular starting pitching option, but I may need to reassess if the strikeouts stick because the control is real.

• 14.0 IP
• 17 K
• 0 BB

Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays (NFBC ADP 294.28)

Aaron has taken his opportunity and ran with it. His control is key as this arm is ascending north of the border.

• 13.0 IP
• 13 K
• 3 BB

Edison Volquez, Kansas City Royals (NFBC ADP 295.06)

 

Edison has found a home in Kansas City and his game has come full circle.

• 11.2 IP
• 15 K
• 3 BB

Rich Hill, Oakland Athletics (NFBC ADP 306.54)

Hill is the ultimate wildcard but strikeouts are a wily temptress.

• 8.2 IP
• 13 K
• 2 BB

Wade Miley, Seattle Mariners (NFBC ADP 345.47)

Why Wade, the results haven’t translated into success but he is building a foundation for success.

• 12.0 IP
• 14 K
• 0 BB

Jonathon Niese, Pittsburgh Pirates (NFBC ADP 352.40)

 

See Wade Miley, also PNC Park and Ray Searage are plus positives.

• 11.0 IP
• 12 K
• 2 BB

Brandon Finnegan, Cincinnati Reds (NFBC ADP 355.99)

Finnegan’s talent has never been questioned but his future role offered some uncertainy and Brandon’s making a statement that he’s a starter.

• 12.2 IP
• 14 K
• 6 BB

Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies (NFBC ADP 390.63)

Another pitcher I mention in-depth last week but Hellboy needed to be on this list.

• 11.2 IP
• 11 K
• 1 BB

 

Other notable starting pitchers not on the list; Adam Conley, Jerad Eickhoff, Shane Greene, Drew Pomeranz and Nick Tropeano but we’ll save them for next week.

Patience is a virtue we all must practice in the volatile starting pitcher market.

Follow Matt!

More in Blog