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TIL: Site Projections are Battles for 5 Percent

In reading Ron Shandler’s 2015 Baseball Forecaster, I learned that when projecting stats for baseball, we’re all just really battling for five percent.

“Research has shown that the best accuracy rate that can be attained by any system is about 70%. In fact, a simple system that uses three- year averages adjusted for age (“Marcel”) can attain a success rate of 65%. This means all the advanced systems are fighting for occupation of the remaining 5%.” — Shandler, BaseballHQ.com

How depressing and exhilarating all at the same time!?! Knowing you can’t be perfect makes it much easier to trust others’ projections, which allows me to focus more on my strategy.

TIL is a Reddit term which means, “Today, I learned …” And I’m going to try to post something that I learned here every day!

 

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David Gonos

David Gonos has been writing about Fantasy Sports online since 2000 – and playing Fantasy Sports since 1989. He has drafted both Curt Warner and Kurt Warner, along with Big Unit and Big Papi. A veteran of hundreds of drafts in the past 15 years alone, Gonos is closely acquainted with sleepers, breakouts and busts – as he has drafted many of all three. He was a Senior Fantasy Writer for CBSSports.com for five years, and he has been columnist on SI.com and FanDuel.com, while also getting published on MLB.com, NFL.com, FoxSports.com and USAToday.com.
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