Our first weekend of DFS is back!
Last year, we were dangerously close to shutting down daily leagues across the country. Luckily for us fans, many of the states wised up and allowed people to continue to play.
Week 1 provides an interesting opportunity to exploit player values. With so many articles focusing on “value plays” and “DFS must starts,” I’ve decided to focus on players whom I believe will not meet their projected expectations. Busts, if you will. There are better, more productive options out there for you and your lineup.
The following article contains a list of players who I believe you should avoid this upcoming week. It also provides a list of players who have similar costs at the same position. Remember, everyone’s lineup is configured differently, so choose wisely!
Week 1 DFS Busts
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (DK $6,800, FD $7,700)
Hue Jackson is gone and he lost WR targets Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones this offseason in free agency. Tyler Eifert is hurt and A.J. Green is on “Revis Island” this week. Nothing is pointing up for Andy Dalton this week. While his cost is relatively average for QBs in DFS, I am staying away from him everywhere. The Jets defense is too good and the Bengals offense has too many question marks in the passing game.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs CIN), Jameis Winston (@ ATL), Tyrod Taylor (@ BAL)
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams (DK $5,600, FD $6,200)
On the surface, this seems like a great value DFS play as there has been plenty of offseason hype. Chip Kelly and his high powered offenses feed off of the run game, but I’ll believe it when I see it. The 49ers WR depth chart looks like a practice squad. The Rams will be loading up the box and forcing Blaine Gabbert to beat them. Hyde will find little room to run and will need a TD to be relevant in the Fantasy box score. I’m staying away from this offense in DFS until they have a few weeks to sort things out.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Ryan Mathews (vs CLE), Latavius Murray (@ NO)
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (DK $6,100, FD $7,300)
His BFF, Tom Brady, was forced to take a 4-week vacation to start the season. Do you really think he and Jimmy Garoppolo have the same (creepy) telepathic relationship? I doubt it. He is coming off multiple foot surgeries and is going against one of the NFL’s top cornerbacks. It will take him a few weeks to get back into his highly consistent stat lines in DFS. Ignore him until Angry Brady is back. I’d play as many Patriots fans H2H in DFS as you can this week.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Allen Hurns (vs GB), Donte Moncrief (vs DET), Michael Crabtree (@ NO)
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings (DK $4,500, FD $6,500)
Walker is one of the most beloved second-tier TEs in Fantasy Football and he will look to keep last year’s momentum going in Week 1. However, it appears the odds are stacked against him. The Vikings are incredibly stout when defending the position.
The Titans are also rolling out their new-look offense with DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry, Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe. The volume will not be on par with what is was last year. He would need to score a TD in what looks to be a very low scoring game. I’m staying away from him in DFS this week (and possibly in the future).
Similar Cost Alternatives: Antonio Gates (@ KC), Gary Barnidge (@ PHI)
Kansas City Chiefs, vs San Diego Chargers (DK $3,600, FD $5,100)
Looking at the past few years, the Chiefs have dominated the Chargers. The Chargers scored a total of 10 points vs the Chiefs last year. But so what? Philip Rivers was playing without Keenan Allen (who was on a ridiculous pace to start the year) and Melvin Gordon looked extremely pedestrian. What’s happened to the Chiefs since then? Sean Smith left during free agency, they lost their starting ILB for the season, Justin Houston is on PUP and Tamba Hali missed most of the offseason with a knee issue.
This Chiefs defense will finish near the top of the charts by seasons end. However, at this price, I don’t see them being worth it in DFS.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Minnesota Vikings (@ TEN), Philadelphia Eagles (vs CLE)
- Week 5 DFS Busts: The Return of Brady? Not Yet. - October 8, 2016
- Week 4 DFS Busts: Your QB/WR Stack Attack is Whack - October 1, 2016
- THAT Fantasy Guy: What’s Wrong With Your Team - September 27, 2016