I was wrong.
How often do you ever hear an expert in the industry say those words? For that matter, how often do you hear nearly anyone say it period? If you ask my wife, she will likely tell you that I never admit I was wrong.
But I will admit it. With every team having now played at least eight games, we can review where I swung and missed. There were players I liked more than I should have and I was wrong on them. There were players I knew would not end up on any of my teams. And now I wish I had shares of them. I was wrong.
Sure, I probably got more right than wrong. But if I’m going to highlight my many hits, its only fair to mention the lowlights too. After all, admitting I was wrong is the right thing to do! So within each position, I’ll discuss at least one player I admit I wish I had a do-over on.
As usual, prices are in parenthesis with DraftKings first, followed by FanDuel.
Week 10 DFS Picks
Let’s get one of the biggest embarrassments out of the way first. I was wrong on Nathan Peterman. Well, I didn’t think he was going to be Jim Kelly, but I thought he might be a low-end option in a 2-QB league. But he has an absolutely embarrassing 1:7 TD to INT ratio. That is reaching historically bad levels. My expectations were that he could be viable, but historically bad is a ways off from viable. I was wrong. But just because I was wrong, I won’t stop taking risks, which is why I am still going to recommend Baker Mayfield this week as my GPP pick at quarterback.
Baker Mayfield, Browns ($5400, $7400)
Baker Mayfield has thrown two touchdowns a game for each of the last three weeks but has seen his price drop each of the last three weeks on DraftKings to what is now a very palatable $5400. Meanwhile, Atlanta is ranked 17th against the run but has given up the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks. I might be eating crow this week, but I think Mayfield feasts on Falcon this week.
Cash Game Picks: Philip Rivers, Mitch Trubisky
I loved Doug Baldwin in the preseason and even suggested owners buy him a few ago after his miserable start. With Julio Jones finally scoring last week, maybe Baldwin ends his TD drought this week. Or maybe not. But currently, the 95th best WR is not what I had in mind when I touted him. He’s not the only WR I got wrong, as I didn’t like Mike Williams this preseason either. But currently ranked nearly 50 slots higher than Baldwin, I’m going to recommend Mike Williams this week.
Mike Williams, Chargers ($3800, $5400)
Williams is definitely a non-cash gameplay as he has all of 17 targets his last five games. However, despite just three targets each of the last two games, he has caught a touchdown each of the last two weeks. Given that the Raiders have given up 19 aerial touchdowns already, I like Williams chances to make it three in a row.
Jarvis Landry, Browns ($6200, $6400
Does the Washington offense strike you as high powered? They must be because I can’t otherwise explain the talking heads raving about the Falcons defense as if they are unstoppable. They’re not. The Falcons are giving up an average of 45 fantasy points to opposing receivers each week. They gave up 52 wide receiver points against the Giants their previous game. I think Landry gets his share this week as well.
Calvin Ridley, Falcons ($5900, $6600)
Ridley saw a career-high (well, ok, he’s a rookie so let’s just say season high) nine targets last week and once again scored, bringing his total touchdowns this season to over half a dozen. With an o/u of over 50 points, this game should turn into a shootout and at sub-$8K, I like Ridley to outproduce his salary.
Cash Game Picks: Keenan Allen, Calvin Ridley
Most of the RB moves I regret making are injury related. But I will admit, I didn’t like Dion Lewis much more than an RB3. However, he’s currently the 18th best fantasy RB. He might be a very popular sleeper pick this week, but I’m still not buying on him. Give me the two more obvious choices below:
Aaron Jones, Packers ($5000, $6500)
Fact: Over the last four weeks, Aaron Jones carries have gone up each week. Fact: Miami is giving up the seventh most fantasy points to running backs. Fact: However, they are the seven tightest against opposing running backs. Opinion: Mike McCarthy is not a creative enough coach to scheme contrary.
Saquon Barkley, Giants ($8600, $8600)
The Giants don’t play until Sunday night, so consider what slates you play. I like to play Thurs through Monday slates and Barkley is one of my favorite plays of the week. But in case you want another option, we stay in NYC but go much deeper.
Elijah McGuire, Jets ($3400, $4900)
One of the backs I was wrong about includes Bilal Powell. But I still think the Jets can produce a Fantasy-worthy RB, but his name is Elijah McGuire. McGuire averaged half a yard better than Crowell last week, plus saw some action in the passing game. With the Jets banged up at WR, Josh McCown starting this week, and Buffalo being the tenth most generous to fantasy running backs, I love McGuire this week at his price point and will have a ton of shares of him in my GPP lineups.
Cash Game Picks: Melvin Gordon, David Johnson
I knew Buffalo was going to be a dumpster fire, but I thought Charles Clay might be a bright spot on that team. Needless to say, there have not really been any bright spots in Buffalo this year. On the flip side, I have since fixed another mistake of mine, but I did not draft Trey Burton on any of my teams. And yes, I’m recommending him this week too.
Trey Burton, Bears ($3400. $6100)
The Lions are actually ranked fourth against the pass, so like many of my picks this week, this pick carries some risk. However, the Lions seem to be moving backward and are now going to be without the services of All-Pro DB Darius Slay. Burton should do enough that he returns a profit this weekend.
Cash Game Picks: Travis Kelce
There have been some great games, but I was wrong about the defense of my beloved Ravens. I still can’t believe they are only the 21st best fantasy defense. Sigh….
Chicago Bears ($3600, $5000)
Yes, they are both my GPP pick and cash game pick of the week. I want them in my cash games and I am willing to spend up for them on my GPP teams. First off, Chicago is the top rated fantasy defense. Secondly, as mentioned Detroit seems to be moving backward. Their offensive line is simply not good. They gave up ten sacks last weekend. I have trouble seeing Chicago not getting to at least half that mark this week. Matt Stafford alone is averaging nearly a turnover a game. The Bears have both a basement and a ceiling worth paying for this week. If not, I’ll tell you I was wrong.
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