No ties this week! Seems like there is always something going on in the NFL that we can talk about for a week. Other than my Week 10 DFS Sleepers and Busts column am I right?! I mean what else is there to talk about on this slow, dull news week?
How about that Monday night game? Another one of those awful, but great football games. Each team had 10 plus penalties, but of course, it is a bleep on the referee’s sort of week, after this one.
I always find fascinating how many Fantasy Football matchups are decided on Monday night. If I were to tell you, that you were up by 5 points and your opponent had running back, Christine Michael how would you feel? If you woke up the next morning after not checking the box score and received a text saying, ‘Christine Michael had 5 carries for a total of 1 yard’. Most people would think they would have won. Obviously, that one yard was a result of a rushing touchdown. Not saying this happened in one of my leagues, I mean of course not… Not as bad as someone losing on a Russell Wilson kneel down to end the game, I guess. Find it interesting how many games are determined on those little plays. Enough of my complaining, here’s how my week 9 DFS picks worked out.
|Marcus Mariota 31.9 DK, 27.9 FD||Derek Carr 7.7 DK & FD|
|Mark Ingram 34.1 DK, 30.1 FD||Todd Gurley 11.4 DK, 9.4 FD|
|Mike Wallace 25.4 DK, 20.4 FD|
Solid Buys or Fades
|Antonio Gates 18.5 DK, 16 FD||Cowboys Defense 8 DK & FD|
|Sam Bradford 16.4 DK 15.9 FD|
Swing and Miss
|Willie Snead 6.6 DK, 5.1 FD||Jay Ajayi 25 DK, 20.5 FD|
|Jets Defense 1 DK & FD||Eric Ebron 16.2 DK, 12.7 FD|
Lets get into this weeks DFS sleepers and Busts for week 10.
Week 10 DFS Sleepers and Busts
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles, Home vs. Atlanta Falcons (5,400 DK, 6,800 FD)
Could a real case be made that ever since I named my week 5 DFS article, ‘Hop On The Wentzylvania Train’ he has been god awful and it could be my fault? Get out of here… Hope no Eagles fan is ready this.
The Eagles have faced a top 10 scoring defense in each of its last three games. They were due because they get to face an Atlanta Falcons defense who is third worst in the league in points allowed, worst in yards allowed and passing touchdowns. They give up the most Fantasy points to quarterbacks and it’s not all that close.
The first five games of the season where he looked fantastic were against; Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers and the Detroit Lions. All poor defenses. I would say the Falcons are in that class, just to go out on a limb. Short sample size but just like all rookie quarterbacks, Wentz does have better numbers at home verses on the road. Another thing you like to see are the attempts in the last two weeks. 43 and 47 passes thrown in weeks 8 and 9 and with the Falcons being one of the more potent offenses in the league, expect a high scoring game.
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans, Home vs. Green Bay Packers (5,700 DK, 7,400 FD)
Love Marcus Mariota’s price on DraftKings for Sunday. He has been an unbelievable Fantasy quarterback since week 5. Talked about his counting stats since that point a week or two ago and they have continued. Did run back into his old self this past week against the Chargers with three total turnovers but he had himself four total touchdowns, so put that in your pipe and smoke it.
The Packers are in the middle of the pack in terms of, passing touchdowns and passing yards but rank tied for sixth worst in turnovers forced which is Mariota’s weak spot in his game. I see a big game from the Packers offense which should force Mariota to throw a ton. I vote for Marcus Mariota as a sleeper quarterback for week 10.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints, Home vs. Denver Broncos (6,900 DK, 8,200 FD)
Nope, no way, no sir. Only one quarterback this season has scored more than 20 standard Fantasy points this season and that was Cam Newton in week 1. It is not like they have played bad quarterbacks either. Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers twice, and Derek Carr this past weekend. Only one quarterback has thrown two touchdowns on the Broncos defense this season and his name is Philip Rivers. This defense is caps lock, LEGIT.
The reports I have seen as of Tuesday regarding Aqib Talib’s status for this Sunday is that the Broncos may keep him out until after next weeks bye week. The good news is that they were able to shut down Derek Carr last Sunday without Talib. Well, not such great news for Drew Brees.
These split stats date back to 2002 but Drew Brees is 2-7 against the Broncos with 5 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. For Drew Brees that is not good. Just don’t see Drew Brees finishing this weekend with the 4th most Fantasy points amongst quarterbacks which is where he is priced at. Find other options my friends.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Road vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (6,100 DK, 7,700 FD)
Would definitely fade Dak Prescott in FanDuel and also look elsewhere on DraftKings in week 10, taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers. One of the most consistent quarterbacks this season in Fantasy, I hear you on that one. The Steelers defense has not been as bad compared to recent years, ranking 8th best in passing touchdowns allowed and since week 5, they are tied for 3rd best in touchdowns allowed at 4 and are top 10 in passing yards allowed. Holding Tom Brady to 222 passing yards and two touchdowns, I would take any day of the week. Dak Prescott is no Tom Brady and he is due for a bad game at some point.
Another thing I don’t like about Dak, is that he has had five games this season where he attempted 30 passes or less. This is a run first offense and he does not take many shots down the field. In a big game tourney play, he fails to offer you much upside for a big Fantasy day. On the road, in Pittsburgh and the Tony Romo fiasco just doesn’t sit right with me.
Running Back Sleepers
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints, Home vs. Denver Broncos (5,400 DK, 6,300 FD)
Love his price tag in FanDuel due to the fact that the way to attack Denver is on the ground. Good to see you last week as well Mark Ingram, coming from a desperate Fantasy owner. The Broncos are scary good against the pass, hence why I have Drew Brees above on the quarterback bust list. Since week 5, they rank 3rd worst behind the San Francisco 49ers and the Cleveland Browns in rushing yards allowed, 10th worst in yards per attempt and almost one touchdown per game.
As reported by Mike Triplett, it looks like Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower will continue to split carries. I wouldn’t be too scared away by the report too much here with this game looking like more of a grind it out kind of game for the Saints.
James White, New England Patriots, Home vs. Seattle Seahawks (4,500 DK, 5,400 FD)
I will have James White in most of my tourney plays this weekend for the simple fact that the price is nice and the matchup may scare people away. The Patriots and Dion Lewis have eyed this game as a possible return for a while. We will see if he does make his debut in this one. If Lewis does indeed get the active tag, I don’t see him playing much if at all.
The Patriots have a different game plan based off of the opponent they face in that given week, which for Fantasy owners can get frustrating. In the past, the Seahawks weakness on the defensive side of the ball was always that defensive line and stopping the run. This season, they have been fantastic against running backs.
I shouldn’t have to remind you the last time these two teams faced off against one another. In that game, we saw a lot of dink and dunk passes from Tom Brady. Running back, Shane Vereen led the way with 11 receptions on 12 targets for 64 yards in that Super Bowl matchup against the Seahawks. I see James White filling the Vereen role as he has all year long.
Running Back Busts
DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans, Home vs. Green Bay Packers (6,900 DK, 7,400 FD)
Can’t do it. Game flow and the Packers front seven are the two main reasons for DeMarco Murray making this list. Only four running backs have scored more than 10 Fantasy points against the Packers. Tied for 1st with the Carolina Panthers in yards per attempt at 3.3 Y/A. Have only given up 4 rushing touchdowns all season long as well.
The game flow could be what does Murray in here. Coming off of a brutal loss at home to the Indianapolis Colts, you have to think the Packers come out guns blazing. Could the discount double check be brought back this weekend? Man, do I hope so. Avoid DeMarco Murray this weekend with those factors in mind.
Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks, Road vs. New England Patriots (5,900 DK, 7,000 FD)
No, this guy did not make the list because of a bad beat this weekend. But wow, is this a sign that Thomas Rawls is coming back or what. The Seahawks look like they trust C.J. Prosise a bit more as well over Christine Michael. Prosise out snapped Michael, 26-18 and in the second half which I found very interesting, Prosise was the guy out snapping Michael by a whopping 15-4 margin, in a close game against the Bills on Monday night.
Michael’s rushing attempts have diminished since week 3 and on Monday did that continue, to say the least. Five carries for one yard. Salvaged his day a bit with a walk in touchdown, but these numbers are frightening. The Patriots defense is top 10 in rushing touchdowns allowed, and since week 5, they are allowing 3 yards per attempt and are 8th best in rushing yards allowed.
Sense a pattern here with the running back busts maybe? The Patriots and Packers force opponents to throw on them with their own high powered offenses. I don’t think this game is a blowout by any means, but I see the Seahawks having to throw and by the looks of it, when they do hand the ball off, it may be to a running back time share.
Wide Receiver Sleepers
J.J. Nelson, Arizona Cardinals, Home vs. San Francisco 49ers (4,200 DK, 5,600 FD)
Way too many flying Cardinals in this offense but Bruce Arians after his big game against the Carolina Panthers, (8 catches on 12 targets for 79 yards and two touchdowns) said that Nelson is the team’s number two wide receiver. Since week 5, the 49ers are tied for 2nd worst in the league in passing touchdowns, at 10. This is also in four games, with them having seen the bye in that span. Absolutely dreadful. Expect to see the birds flying all over the field coming off of their bye.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs, Road vs. Carolina Panthers (3,800 DK, 4,700 FD)
Both wide receivers on this section are very interesting dart throw, tourney plays, in DFS this weekend. The fifth round pick of this 2015 draft, Tyreek Hill was reportedly timed in the 40-yard dash at 4.24 seconds before the combine. The kid can fly and this matchup sets up very nicely for him.
Never like to see groin injuries and that is what Chiefs number one wide receiver, Jeremy Maclin is dealing with this week. Andy Reid pointed out on Monday that he is day-to-day but that this injury could force him to miss some time.
Hill has seen five and six targets respectively in the last two weeks and for this speedster, all you need is one. The Panthers have been awful at preventing big plays. Vance McDonald, Julio Jones (twice), Brandin Cooks, and Coby Fleener have all had a 50 or more yard catch this season on the Panthers. I could see Tyreek Hill being added to the list.
Wide Receiver Busts
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints, Home vs. Denver Broncos (7,000 DK, 7,300 FD)
Brandin Cooks against the Seahawks a few weeks back, he went for four catches for 44 yards and a touchdown. The week before against the Chiefs he had seven catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Two very good defenses but I can’t state how great this Denver defense has been against the pass. If Cooks didn’t happen to score a touchdown in both games to help Fantasy owners, those would have been very mediocre outputs.
The only receiver to do much against them was Kelvin Benjamin in week one and he is a big physical pass catcher. Brandin Cooks is the absolute opposite. I could see Michael Thomas having a slightly better day and find his matchup more favorable, with him being the bigger receiver.
Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins, Home vs. Minnesota Vikings (5,000 DK, 6,000 FD)
This guy has really come on as of late. Jamison Crowder in his last two games has back to back 100 yard games and coming off of a bye, why is he on the bust list you might ask. The Vikings have not allowed a receiver over 79 yards this season. This actually happened last weekend in that wild Detroit Lions game where the Vikings forgot how to tackle Golden Tate.
Since week 5, they are 3rd best in yards allowed. The quarterback’s completion percentage is 56.9% in that span, 4th best. The Washington Redskins have not faced a top notch defense like the Vikings at all this season. The price is tempting and they are begging you to take the receiver with back to back 100 yards games but I wouldn’t think much about Jamison Crowder for Sunday.
Tight End Sleeper
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles, Home vs. Atlanta Falcons (3,700 DK, 4,600 FD)
Lets try this again, shall we. Every time I am all on board the Ertz train, he just does not show up. I keep getting on the wrong train, that is for sure. Gravy matchup this Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. Also his price on FanDuel is unbelievably low. As I was scrolling down, I was wondering if they had forgotten to list him for this week.
Alright, can’t get to confident here with this guy who has made me look bad all year long. Coming off of an eight catch on eight target game for 97 yards is nothing to look past against a Giants defense who has been very good all year long especially verses the pass. Nicer matchup at home and with the price still this low, give me Zach Ertz.
Tight End Bust
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers, Home vs. Kansas City Chiefs (5,900 DK, 7,200 FD)
The Panthers have had a real tough schedule through the first half of the season. Greg Olsen has done most of his damage against the more favorable opponents while against, the Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings and Arizona Cardinals, he has been very average. The Kansas City Chiefs are in that group of great defenses, no doubt about it. They give up the 6th fewest Fantasy points to tight ends. The most yards by a tight end against the Chiefs this season was by Coby Fleener for 44 yards… Antonio Gates had three catches against the Chiefs in week one which is the most catches at that position against this team. Pretty extraordinary stats. Awful matchup for Greg Olsen this weekend.
Los Angeles Rams, Road vs. New York Jets (2,900 DK, 4,600 FD)
Solid price for a Los Angeles Rams defense who is top 10 in rushing yards allowed, yards per attempt, passing yards allowed, and just outside the top 10 at 12th best in points against. Also, could put any defense on the sleeper list taking on quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick who is the definition of ‘turnover’. I believe you can find his name under synonyms of turnover in the dictionary.
This guy has 13 interceptions this season and insanely has seven fumbles but none of them are lost fumbles. That could change this weekend with that Rams front seven. The last two games were against the Giants and Panthers where they gave up a combined total of 24 points. The Jets are much worse than those two teams. Sign me up for some Rams defense this weekend.
Minnesota Vikings, Road vs. Washington Redskins (3,600 DK, 4,900 FD)
The Minnesota Vikings defense has not been the same since the bye week where they started off 5-0. 20 or more points in the last three games and only two sacks in that span. Kirk Cousins and this Redskins offense has been very good this season, posting in the top 10 in total yards, yards per play, passing yards, and rushing yards per attempt. The Vikings are also on the road in this one, where Kirk Cousins feasts in Washington. Don’t like this one too much.
Latest posts by Josh Carlson (see all)
- 2017 Fantasy Football: The Windy City Welcomes Mike Glennon - March 10, 2017
- Week 17 DFS Sleepers and Busts: Going Out With A Bang - December 31, 2016
- Week 16 DFS Sleepers and Busts: My Savage Christmas - December 23, 2016