Well it was a rough week for my Start or Sit predictions, as I finished under .500 for the first time since I started keeping score. Let’s try to make the Week 10 Start or Sit predictions better.
My “sits” were especially awful, as I went 0-for-6. However, this will happen if you are trying to truly find guys to “sit” and not guys ranked in the 40’s at their position.
On the bright side, I did give you Marcus Mariota, Tim Hightower, Golden Tate, Michael Thomas and Antonio Gates who all finished in the upper echelon of their position. For this week’s start or sit, I am going to focus on my “sit” plays to bounce back.
This week, I am focusing on some miss-ranked pairs of Saints in the Week 10 Start or Sit. I think the unheralded player in both pairs is in line for the better game.
As always, if a guy outperforms his ranking as a Start, then it’s a win. If he does so as a Sit, then it’s a loss. Vice versa for the under-performing. If someone outperforms/under-performs their ranking by 12 or more spots, it will be a Major Win. By these metrics, my Start or Sit predictions are 60-45-3 for the year heading into the Week 10 Start or Sit plays, with 39 Major Wins.
Once again, for our Week 10 Start or Sit purposes I am going to focus on guys that are ranked outside of the Top 24 RB/WRs and Top 10 QB/TEs for my “starts,” and inside the Top 20 RB/WRs and Top 8 QB/TEs for my “sits.”
Week 10 Start or Sit
(All rankings are based off of the SCFE Staff Consensus PPR Rankings as of 11/9)
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (QB11)
Prescott is just on the fringe of the Top 10, but I have him a couple of spots higher than even that. I did not think Prescott would bounce back as strongly as he did after the terrible Eagles’ game, but I underestimated the Browns’ defense.
I think this game will be a high-scoring affair with Ben Roethlisberger having a week under his belt to shake off the rust. With Tony Romo looming, Prescott needs a good game to keep his job.
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns (QB15)
Speaking of the awful Browns, Flacco gets them on a short week. In Week 2, Flacco put up 302 yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland, on the road. I expect more of the same as he and Mike Wallace have found some solid chemistry.
James White, RB, New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (RB26)
With Dion Lewis’ status still unclear, I like White here for New England. Even if Lewis plays, I doubt he gets a full workload since he has not played in over a year.
After scoring in back-to-back games, White had a down week against Buffalo. However, I think that was more to do with it being a blow out rather than performance. It should be a closer matchup with Seattle, and Tom Brady should need to dump it off a little more.
Report: Pats hope to have Dion Lewis for Week 10 vs. Seahawkshttps://t.co/iTzGRtP4F6
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) November 2, 2016
Tim Hightower, RB, New Orleans Saints vs. Denver Broncos (RB30)
In the knee-jerk reaction world we live in, Mark Ingram has popped back ahead of Hightower. Yes, I know Ingram had 158 yards Sunday, but he had a 75-yard carry, something very out of the ordinary for him. You take away that touchdown run, and he had less yards, less carries and less targets than Hightower.
Denver has surprisingly given up the third most rushing yards this season. I think Hightower still gets the majority of the touches and out-points Ingram.
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (WR25)
If last week is any indication of the Seattle offense going forward, we could be in store for another late-season Baldwin surge. Russell Wilson looked Baldwin’s way early and often as they built a lead on Buffalo. They will probably be playing catch up here, and I like Baldwin to get 100 yards.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints vs. Denver Broncos (WR27)
I said last week and I’ll say again: Thomas will be a “start” as long as he is out of the Top 24 at the position. He is now the 11th-highest scoring receiver this season. He is on pace for 94 catches, 1,146 yards and 10 touchdowns. Thomas still is not started every week. He should not qualify as one of my Week 10 Start or Sit plays, but if this stays the same, he will be part of Week 11 as well.
Cole Beasley, WR, Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (WR37)
Dez Bryant has been pouting and Jason Witten is coming off of his best game in years so you know the Steelers will be ready for both of them. I think Beasley is the beneficiary. He has at least 3 catches and 53 yards in every game this season. He has only been held under 10 PPR points once, and has scored in three of the last four games.
Dennis Pitta, TE, Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns (TE14)
Cleveland has still given up the most Fantasy Points to opposing tight ends this season, even after the Delanie Walker no-show from a few weeks ago. If 80-year old Jason Witten can put up 150 yards and touchdown, I’m sure Dennis Pitta will crack the Top 10 at the position this week. He is the biggest lock of all Week 10 Start or Sit plays.
New England Patriots DST vs. Seattle Seahawks (DST12)
Seattle will definitely give up some sacks as their offensive line play has been terrible. I am sure Bill Belichick will find the right ways to get pressure to Russell Wilson and either take him down or force some bad decisions.
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears (QB10)
He is a little lower than my normal sit, but the Top-8 guys are all in good situations. Winston gets Chicago this week, who is coming off of a Bye. I never like a quarterback going against a team with two weeks to prepare for him. I also do not think Jameis has a 4-game streak of multiple touchdown passes in him.
49ers expect RB Carlos Hyde’s status to be a pre-game decision, but it does not sound promising that he will be active, per sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 6, 2016
Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (RB21)
Hyde has not played in over a month and is still not a lock to play Sunday. Dujuan Harris has been more than satisfactory in his place. Even if Hyde plays, I suspect it will be a timeshare. Throw in the Cardinals’ defense that is giving up the 5th-fewest Fantasy Points a game to running backs, and Hyde is a sit this week.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints vs. Denver Broncos (RB14)
See Hightower, Tim.
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints vs. Denver Broncos (WR20)
Cooks will be the focus of the Denver pass defense this weekend, which is not a good spot for a wide receiver to be in. He also seems to be a boom or bust player for elite Fantasy production. In his two big games against Oakland and Carolina, Cooks had 316 yards and three touchdowns. In his other six games combined he only has 280 yards and 2 touchdowns, including never topping the 68-yard mark.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (WR22)
Stefon Diggs proved me wrong last weekend, but only in PPR leagues. Diggs had 13 catches for just 80 yards. He still has just 1 touchdown since Week 2 and last Sunday was only the second time he cracked 10 PPR points in that span. Josh Norman is likely to be on him and while he may not be covering that well, Diggs will not get points for penalty yards.
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins vs. Minnesota Vikings (TE3)
Minnesota is one of only three teams yet to allow an opposing tight end to catch a touchdown. I think that continues this week.
That’s it for your Week 9 Start or Sit plays! If you have any lineup questions, shoot them to us on Twitter @Tomlin3 or @SoCalledFanEx.
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