We’re almost there ladies and gentlemen. The bye weeks have almost passed. No Julio Jones or Melvin Gordon this weekend, but hey, we always got DFS! The Week 11 DFS Sleepers and Busts column was an interesting one, with a few teams on bye that are Fantasy friendly.
I had the opportunity last weekend to get down to Foxboro to take in the Patriots vs. Seahawks game and wow, was that game intense. I mean as we expected, it came down to the one-yard line with seconds on the clock. Sound familiar?
I started to think about the game back in 2012 where the Seahawks beat the Patriots in Seattle 24-23. In their last three matchups, how you can compare these endings to DFS? One play or one different player swap minutes before kickoff. One coaching decision can be the difference between $50 and $500. Especially in these big tournament games where the difference between $3,500 place and $2,500 place is 10 Fantasy points. It just got me thinking a little bit. Alright, let’s look into last week’s picks shall we.
|Marcus Mariota 28.6 DK & FD||Christine Michael 3.6 DK, 3.1 FD|
|Tyreek Hill 20.1 DK, 15.1 FD||Vikings Defense 3 DK & FD|
Solid Buys or Fades
|Zach Ertz 11.5 DK, 8.5 FD||Jamison Crowder 14.4 DK, 12.4 FD|
|Rams Defense 10 DK & FD||Greg Olsen 8.9 DK, 6.4 FD|
Swing and Miss
|Carson Wentz 9.2 DK, 8.2 FD||Drew Brees 26 DK, 23 FD|
|J.J. Nelson 3.9 DK, 1.9 FD||DeMarco Murray 31 DK, 27 FD|
Lets get into this weeks DFS sleepers and Busts for Week 11.
Week 11 DFS Sleepers and Busts
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins vs. Green Bay Packers (5,800 DK, 7,600 FD)
Captain Kirk Cousins makes the list this week as a sleeper. He had a big time victory last week against the Vikings who have been struggling, but that defense is still as talented as any in the NFL. The captain threw for 262 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. I love seeing a turnover free game from the sometimes wild, Kirk Cousins. Over the last four weeks, Cousins has scored more than 18 DraftKings and FanDuel points. Two of those opponents, the Vikings and Eagles, are also Top 3 in terms of points allowed.
In that four game span, he has seven touchdowns to two picks and one rushing touchdown as well. Whenever you are taking on the Packers, you know you are going to have to throw and score a bunch of points to win. Will we get 40-plus passes from Captain Kirk? I think so.
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (5,600 DK, 7,300 FD)
Taylor has a reasonable price on FanDuel but a head scratcher on DraftKings. A good head scratcher though! Taylor has been one of the more reliable, consistent players at the quarterback position. Other than the poor performance against a tough Baltimore Ravens defense in Week 1, he has put up over 15 DK points in every game this season. You can make the case for him in both tourney and double up games, as he can easily take one to the house from 50 yards.
I love how much he has been running the ball in each and every game. One rushing touchdown in three straight games and he has had five or more rushing attempts in every game but one. You would think for a running quarterback that he would fumble the ball a ton, but surprisingly he has only lost one fumble all year. I found that interesting. He has been forced to throw the ball 38 times in the last two weeks and this week shouldn’t be any different.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens (6,000 DK, 7,500 FD)
Dak Prescott has been as steady as any quarterback in the NFL this year. For a rookie, it is quite impressive. He made the bust list this week though for the simple fact of the matchup. In their last four games, the Ravens have given up five touchdowns and have had five interceptions. It has been nice to get those occasional rushing yards from Dak this year. However, as I mentioned about Tyrod Taylor having only one game this year with less than two rushing attempts, it came against the Ravens. This Ravens defense is starting to look like their old defenses and I think Dak may struggle here.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (5,900 DK, 7,500 FD)
On the road in Arrowhead Stadium would a big no for me. I player indexed the last four weeks and the Chiefs have not fared very well, but listen to the quarterbacks they have faced: Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles and Cam Newton. Think whatever you want about Bortles, but he has put up numbers this year. They were also only at home for one of those games. That defense really gets amped up in Arrowhead. Jameis Winston is a slinger of the football. I could see a few picks in this game.
Now, let’s look at the running game. Over those last four games, they are fourth worst in yards per attempt at 4.93. :et’s look at the running backs in those four games: Mark Ingram/Tim Hightower, Frank Gore, T.J. Yeldon/Chris Ivory and Jonathan Stewart. They are average backs and they were able to post 4.93 Y/A. Doug Martin, with no setbacks last weekend, could see a heavy dose of the hamster. This is also a team that in Weeks 5 and 6 had 70 rushing attempts combined. This team wants to run the ball, thus limiting Winston.
Running Back Sleepers
Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (5,000 DK, 6,300 FD)
Alright, I will say that I wasn’t a big fan of Frank Gore coming into the season, but can we all agree the guy is not human? I mean, I am not certain as to what he is, other than the fact that age doesn’t matter for this guy. I am not sure what the DFS sites are seeing by setting the price this low for a Top 10 scoring running back this season. Coming off of his bye and rested, I love me some Frank this weekend. The Titans defense has been solid against running backs. However, in their last matchup a few weeks back, he managed 17 carries for 61 yards and five receptions (five targets) for 22 yards and a score. I am not sure about him in a tourney play but Gore is as solid as they come.
Duke Johnson Jr. Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3,800 DK, 5,00 FD)
Duke Johnson Jr. gives you quite a chance to stick him in as your second running back in DFS and load up elsewhere. He has a great price and a fantastic matchup. In 8 out of 10 games this year, the Duke has seen more than five targets in the passing game. He is the passing down back and what do you foresee this game turning into? I would say the Steelers put up more than 30 points on the Browns, easy.
As we saw last weekend, that Steelers defense is awful. How do you let Ezekiel Elliott go untouched on his way for a 32 yard game winning touchdown? Well, because they are bad, that’s how. Duke has been right there with Isaiah Crowell all season in terms of snaps. If he can get you eight carries and six or seven receptions, he could be interesting.
Running Back Busts
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens (8,000 DK, 8,700 FD)
The rookie tandem of the year (Dak and Zeke) are both on the bust section this week. Man, could this blow up in my face or what? In Elliott’s case, it’s all about the price. If he gets 120 all-purpose yards and zero touchdowns with a few catches, which could get you 15 DFS points or so, that would not be worth the price of Zekemission. That could absolutely happen this week against the leagues top defense.
The Ravens have been doing this all season long, as they have allowed a league best four rushing touchdowns in nine games this season. For the year they are also first at 3.3 yards per attempt. Elliott is amazing but if you look at the running defenses that he has faced, they have all been below average. Only 2 of 10 teams were in the upper half in terms of yards per attempt. This Ravens defense is no joke. Obviously, Zeke is no joke as well, but for the price, I would fade him this week.
James White, New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (4,800 DK, 5,900 FD)
The price is a little high for my liking this weekend in a great matchup. I feel like this is a huge LeGarrette Blount game. Without Rob Gronkowski, I think they run a lot. The Patriots are a hysterical 13-point favorite. I believe Tom Brady has a good game but when they get up big, Blount will be the guy running down the clock, as he usually does. I am not a fan of White on Sunday against the 49ers.
Wide Receiver Sleepers
Terrelle Pryor Sr. Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5,600 DK, 7,200 FD)
I guess FanDuel sees what I see here. Similar to the last few players I have talked about, this game screams game flow for Terrelle Pryor Sr. as well. The DK price is real nice and I will probably have Pryor in every lineup this week. He is my DFS lock of Week 11. I may start making that a thing. Anyway, the No. 1 wide receiver against the Steelers this year have had monster games and Pryor is the Browns go-to guy.
The Steelers are in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed, completions, and 11th worst in total yards. They give up plays. I am sticking with what I said earlier, the Steelers will put up 30 on the Browns. If the Browns are smart, they will throw the ball, making Pryor a nice play this weekend.
Cameron Meredith, Chicago Bears at New York Giants (4,100 DK, 5,600 FD)
This is a real nice bargain here with Alshon Jeffreyout due to a four game suspension. Next man up, Cameron Meredith, who figures to play the Jeffrey role going forward. He is a big guy, similar to Jeffrey at 6’3”, 201 lbs. Jay Cutler loves going to his big wide receivers. In Weeks 5 ad 6, he got over the 100 yard mark in both games and scored a touchdown in one. The guy has shown what he is capable of. Now he has the opportunity to do it. This is a tough matchup, but he should be peppered with targets. More importantly, who doesn’t love pepper?!
Wide Receiver Busts
Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals (7,000 DK, 6,800 FD)
DraftKings is really digging on Stefon Diggs this week. I am not liking the Diggs matchup against the Cardinals defense, who have played well as of late. I find Bruce Arians to be a very straight forward guy and in this transcript from his presser on Wednesday, he is that kind of guy.
Q: How do you slow Stefon Diggs?
Bruce Arians: Put Patrick Peterson on him.
Q: That your plan Sunday?
BA: Oh yeah
— Andrew Krammer (@Andrew_Krammer) November 16, 2016
Thank you Bruce Arians. He has has monster games in his last three, where he has seen more than 13 targets in each game. The Bears, Lions, and Redskins can help with those monster games for sure. Patrick Peterson is a different corner and will follow Diggs around all game. This is WAY too much to pay for Diggs this Sunday.
Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (6,600 DK, 6,900 FD)
The name may be driving the price on this one because Jarvis Landry has not been great this year, to say the least. In his first four games, he saw 10 or more targets and looked to be picking up where he left off last year. Since that point, he has failed to reach 100 yards and has had minimal receptions since Week 5 (3, 7, 5, 3, 6). For a target monster and possession guy, he is not even catching that many passes. The Rams have also been pretty great all season defensively and even better in their last four games. In their last four, they are second in passing yards allowed and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns allowed.
Tight End Sleeper
Martellus Bennett, New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (3,700 DK, 5,200 FD)
Bennett is close to my lock of the week with Terrelle Pryor. I love this play against the 49ers who we all know are just awful in all defensive categories. Rob Gronkowski suffered a punctured lung in Week 10 after a huge hit with Earl Thomas. After that point, they really got Bennett more involved. He has had some big games this year, but it is just hard to predict with this offense.
He has a really nice matchup and I know I talked about how this game could be all about running the ball, but Tom Brady is going to get his and a lot of that could go to Bennett with Gronk out. The 49ers are a train wreck and you have to think the Patriots can get by without Gronk in this one.
Tight End Bust
Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5,600 DK, 6,500 FD)
The Eagles have been one of the better defensive teams this year and have been tremendous against tight ends. Only Vernon Davis has had more than 10 Fantasy points this year. At this point, Graham is better than Vernon Davis but for the price, it is not worth rolling out in the starting lineup in DFS.
Miami Dolphins Defense at Los Angeles Rams (2,900 DK, 4,800 FD)
This is a really nice price in DK for a defense who just picked off Philip Rivers four times last week. They have also been getting to the quarterback as of late. During the Dolphins four game winning streak, they have had eight interceptions and 12 sacks. They also get a Rams team who just made a quarterback change to rookie Jared Goff who struggled mightily in preseason. I believe they sell out to try and stop Todd Gurley and they may end up just walking into a few picks from Goff. Not a bad play this weekend.
Minnesota Vikings Defense vs. Arizona Cardinals (3,300 DK, 4,500 FD)
This is a tough price for me, at least in DK on Sunday against the Cardinals. This Cardinals team had super bowl aspirations coming into the year and they are loaded on the offensive side of the ball. The Vikings also have not been themselves since their five game win streak to start the year off. In their last three games, they only managed two turnovers, three sacks and they have allowed over 300 total yards in each game. They also gave up over 400 yards to the Chicago Bears. That is god awful. I would fade the Vikings defense this weekend for those reasons.
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