I cannot wait to get to my Week 11 Start or Sit plays. I was below average for the second straight week, finishing at 6-8-1 with three major wins. While there were a couple of completely off-based predictions (Stefon Diggs, ugh), there were some that were right on the border.
Dak Prescott and Doug Baldwin were especially good “Starts,” while Jordan Reed was by far my best “Sit.”
As we get to the Week 11 Start or Sit plays, I have found a couple of market over-corrections that can be taken advantage of. My rankings were a day late due to some travel, and it helped me see where I disagree with my fellow rankers.
As always, if a guy outperforms his ranking as a Start, then it’s a win. If he does so as a Sit, then it’s a loss. Vice versa for the under-performing. If someone outperforms/under-performs their ranking by 12 or more spots, it will be a Major Win. By these metrics, my Start or Sit predictions are 66-53-4 for the year heading into the Week 11 Start or Sit plays, with 42 Major Wins.
Once again, for our Week 11 Start or Sit purposes I am going to focus on guys that are ranked outside of the Top 24 RB/WRs and Top 10 QB/TEs for my “starts,” and inside the Top 20 RB/WRs and Top 8 QB/TEs for my “sits.”
Week 11 Start or Sit
(All rankings are based off of the SCFE Staff Consensus PPR Rankings as of 11/9)
Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (QB14)
Listen, I know Bortles has been awful this year as a real-football quarterback. As a Fantasy option, he has been surprisingly consistent. He has not had any monster games, but he has thrown for at least one touchdown in every game. He also has either 246 yards or multiple touchdowns in every game.
In his past four games he has at least 246 yards. Then he has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three straight. Jacksonville is just not a good football team, so Bortles will always have garbage points.
Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears at New York Giants (QB24)
As we continue the trend of awful quarterback play, I give you Jay Cutler in my Week 11 Start or sit! This goes with my The Opposite Theory in gambling, when in the NFL everything is never as good or bad as it seems. I think Cutler hit rock bottom last week and bounces back with a respectable outing for 2-QB leagues.
Kenneth Dixon, RB, Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (RB29)
— The Baltimore Sun (@baltimoresun) November 14, 2016
I wrote about Dixon in my waiver wire article this week, and I think he finishes in a start-able range Sunday. The rookie rushed for 38 yards on just six carries while hauling in five of his seven targets for 42 more yards. Terrance West has been worse and worse as the weeks go on. Dixon should get the lion share of the touches going forward.
Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (RB30)
This is a must-win game for Pittsburgh so I expect them to get up big early on Cleveland. That will mean plenty of dump-offs to running backs for the Browns as they play catch-up.
Johnson has at least two catches in every single game and at least three in all but two games. He only has one touchdown on 88 total touches which feels like regression back to the mean to me. I expect him to catch five balls and get in the end zone against Pittsburgh, who we just saw has issues covering backs out of the backfield.
Corey Coleman, WR, Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (WR38)
As I just said, I expect Cleveland to be playing catch up in this game. Coleman has not put up significant numbers in his two games back from injury, but he has gotten 12 targets over the past two weeks. I think he breaks back on to the scene this week.
Rishard Matthews, WR, Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (WR30)
I had my doubts about Matthews, but he has now scored in three straight games, and five of the past six. He has at least three catches in six straight games and every game but one this season. He has become Marcus Mariota’s favorite target and needs to be started going forward. Matthews is also averaging over 13 PPR points per game.
Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington Redskins vs. Green Bay Packers (WR28)
This is mostly contingent on DeSean Jackson not playing again, but in general I would probably still start Crowder. The former Blue Devil has either 100 yards or a touchdown in each of the past four games. He is averaging over 14 PPR points per game. Now he has a great match-up with Green Bay.
Jamison Crowder is the leading receiver on a team with Desean, Jordan Reed, and Garçon.
— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) November 16, 2016
Cameron Brate, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (TE18)
I know, he is facing Kansas City and they have one of the best defenses in the league. However, Brate has scored in three straight games and is coming off season highs in both yards and catches. With Mike Evans being the focus of the defense, Jameis Winston is using his tight end like he never has before. Brate is a must-start for me, and being ranked outside of the Top 15 is too low.
Oakland Raiders DST vs. Houston Texans (DST11)
Obviously, once again, the team playing the Browns (Steelers) is the best streaming option. Since they are already highly ranked, I will go with the Raiders. There are worse situations than facing Brock Osweiler with your Fantasy Defense.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles (QB8)
As good as Wilson was against New England, I need to see it against a good defense. Wilson still only has five touchdown passes in his last five games. The most disconcerting statistic about Russell: he only has 60 yards rushing for THE SEASON.
This is a guy who burst into elite-QB territory rushing for nearly 1,000 yards. His injury/offensive line have taken that aspect away from his game and he is just not a good enough passer to warrant a ranking this high.
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (RB13)
Martin came back last week from injury and promptly rushed for two yards per carry. A touchdown saved his Fantasy day, but that is not likely this week. Kansas City has given up the second fewest rushing touchdowns in the league (three). I think Tampa will be more of an RBBC than we have seen the past season or so.
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams vs. Miami Dolphins (RB15)
Gurley has more than 72 yards just once this season. In fact, outside of the Tampa Bay game, Gurley is averaging 53 yards a game with just one touchdown. He went on a decent streak of catching passes, but now he has a rookie quarterback in his first start against a Miami team that gives up only 30 yards receiving to running backs a game.
To contrast DAL + LA O-lines – Zeke Elliott and Todd Gurley are separated by 31 carries. Gurley has 153 yards before contact. Zeke: 439
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) November 16, 2016
Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (WR15)
I think Edelman’s ranking got over-corrected because of a good game and a good match-up. Before the Seattle game, Edelman did not have more than 76 yards once this season. More importantly, I think the three-headed running back monster for the Patriots will hog all of the touches and scores.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (WR17)
In Houston’s last seven games, Hopkins has just TWO double-digit point outings, with only one touchdown over that span. He has only topped 71 yards in one game and Brock Osweiler looks worse by the week. Even if the match-up seems decent, I would not use Hopkins in any sort of weekly/daily league. I know you probably don’t have a better option, but there are definitely guys ranked below him that I would rather start (Jarvis Landry, Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones, Jamison Crowder).
Eric Ebron, TE, Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (TE8)
Ebron has finally lived up to some of the potential he displayed in getting selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. However, I do not like this situation for him. As bad as Jacksonville has been, they have been pretty good against tight ends. They have given up the sixth fewest yards to opposing tight ends and allowed just three touchdowns all season. I think it is more of a process of failing to cover opposing receivers than covering tight ends well. Either way, I am staying away from Ebron here.
That’s it for your Week 11 Start or Sit plays! If you have any lineup questions, shoot them to us on Twitter @Tomlin3 or @SoCalledFanEx.
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