While pondering what angle I should take for the Week 11 Stock Report, a commercial came on the television. Perhaps you’ve seen it once or twice? The commercial featured the Capital One Credit Card.
I was quickly struck that asking someone what was in their wallet is a pretty personal question. And since I was thinking about the Week 11 Stock Report, I thought a highly personal but more interesting question might be what was in their portfolio?
You’ll understand if I’m not revealing that information. However, given that I often am making buy and sell Fantasy recommendations to you, it seems only fair to reveal what is in my Fantasy Football portfolio. Below is a sampling of my teams having varied success. I’ll tell you a little about each team (but not team name as many are NSFW) and how it is performing as well as some buy/sell recommendation along the way.
Of course you’ll see certain players more frequently and…excuse me…yes, Mr. Evans, no need to point it out to everyone, you are in my portfolio and one of the better performing ones. Yes, even though you are high price, I would still recommend people buy you. Despite already being the second best WR, you have a beautiful playoff schedule in Weeks 14-16; Dallas sandwiched by New Orleans. Both teams are easily in the Top 10 in Fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Before we have any more interruptions, here is the Week 11 stock report and what’s in my Fantasy portfolio….
Week 11 Stock Report
League Name: “The Official So Called Fantasy Experts League”
Record: 8-2, first place by two games. Not bad for our in-house league!
Playoff Likelihood/Situation: Extremely High
This team has actually outperformed expectations given that it is fairly weak at WR. Despite no bye issues at WR, I am starting Jordan Matthews, Steve Smith, and Michael Thomas this weekend. However, what is carrying this team is I have Aaron Rodgers at QB and a strong cast of RBs led by Ezekiel Elliott and Lamar Miller. And I expect it to continue to do well as Miller should have a very strong second half. He has one of the easiest schedules, facing just one team that is in the top half of the league in preventing Fantasy points to RB. That team is Green Bay, who is still only 13th. Miller is an absolute buy and I wish I had him on the next team.
League Name: No joke, “Fantasy Football 2016”.
Record: 7-3, tied for second overall but first in my division.
Playoff Likelihood/Situation: High, first-round bye likely
This team is probably my best team. I drafted a very strong quartet of receivers in Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, and Michael Crabtree. I was fortunate to be able to snag Donte Moncrief when he was dropped during his bye. Snag him too if you can. Since coming back in Week 8, all he has done is score a touchdown each week and put up double digit Fantasy points.
Fortunately, my RBs are pretty decent too. They are headlined by Melvin Gordon, who I would actually sell high if you can. His nearly 18-touchdown pace is not sustainable. The last RB to even come close recently was Arian Foster who scored 15 rushing TDs back in 2012. I doubt Gordon even hits that mark given that he faces some tougher defenses down the stretch, like Carolina for example.
Gordon is joined on my team by Doug Martin, Frank Gore, the Eddie Lacy/James Starks combo and Kenneth Dixon. I would buy Dixon now if you can before his price skyrockets during the stretch run. As you can see, it’s pretty strong. However, this is a pretty quiet league so even if I win, I won’t be making a video like this one to send to my league mates.
However, my next team is a returning champion. If I repeat I will absolutely do something big as no one has ever had back-to-back championships. But as you read below, you’ll probably agree with me that it’s not going to happen.
League Name: Frozen Tundra
Record: 7-3, tied for second overall but own all tiebreakers.
Playoff Likelihood/Situation: High, with a likely first-round bye
This league is my long time hometown league. As a 2-QB auction keeper league, it is one of the more difficult leagues I do every year. This league boasts a ton of parity; it is nearly impossible to separate from the pack in consecutive years. The fact that I am threatening to repeat has the rest of the league stunned.
One of my buddies called me and cut right to it, “How are you doing this?!?!?” I immediately thought of that scene in Gattaca….
The irony, of course, is that this being a keeper league, I do need to worry about the “swim back.” But with a number of my cheap stud keepers nearing the final year of their contract, I just have to keep pushing forward. But my buddy is right, I shouldn’t have the record I have.
My RBs are dreadful. I have to start two of Todd Gurley, Matt Forte, T.J. Yeldon, and DuJuan Harris every week. Well, I do have one of the few cheap keepers I will have for next year, Cameron Artis-Payne. Yipee.
The good news, however, is that I have four quality WRs I can roll out every week–I can start any four of these five: Crabtree (at a below average keeper price!), Doug Baldwin (even cheaper!), Landry, Larry Fitzgerald, and Randall Cobb. Baldwin might be a “buy” but the other four are a “hold” at best. Of course it does help to have Drew Brees, who I would argue is a “hold” at worst.
So I got a pretty good shot. But to be fair, I need to present some of my teams on the other side of the spectrum…
League: Frank Drebin Memorial League
Record: 5-5 and in 6th place, two games out of the playoffs
Playoff Likelihood/Situation: Moderate
I was a late entry into this league when one of the commissioner’s co-workers bailed on him days before Draftmas. Of course, I couldn’t resist helping them out, especially because my entry fee was already covered. I was forced to auto-draft and was behind the 8-ball from the get-go, but I’m surviving.
This is another league where Ezekiel Elliott is keeping me afloat. However, I own Rob Gronkowski and got off to a rocky start. Three touchdowns and 540 receiving yards is nice, but I was hoping for more. And if you’re hoping for better production the rest of the season, you should sell. The Pats face the Jets in Week 16, but Denver and the current No. 1 Baltimore defense in Weeks 14 and 15. And is it me, or does it feel like the Pats are going to try and establish their run game? Sell high, but sell.
I also need help at wide receiver as Brandin Cooks and Jordan Matthews are not studly enough. I was close to swinging a deadline deal for Allen Robinson, but time ran out. If you have more time, however, I would consider doing so as well. I also would buy Marcus Mariota who is quarterbacking this team.
The one player currently on this team I can’t decide what to do with is Darren Sproles. But I am very tempted to start him this week as my flex. Last time Doug Pederson faced the Seahawks and their dominant defense during the regular season was 2014. As offensive coordinator, Pederson and the Chiefs ran roughshod over Seattle for over 190 rushing yards and the victory. Think Pederson might try it again?
Speaking of trying again….
League Name: Remembering Thirsty Lagers
Record: 3-7 but tied with four other 3-7 teams .
Playoff Likelihood/Situation: Low, but if I can win out I’m in
This is a league where I was cruising to a #1 seed last year but got bounced in the first round. We also lost one of my favorite rival owners suddenly and tragically. Given that we were dedicating this season to him and my bitter playoff exit, I felt I needed to come back.
My team should be absolutely dominating, but it is not. In typical Fantasy Football fashion, I had the misfortune of facing the team that scores the most points four out of the last four weeks! I am first in points against by nearly 100 points.
The fact that I have Brees, Evans, and two of the top seven RBs the last four weeks (Jay Ajayi and Latavius Murray) is little consolation. I also have the aforementioned Moncrief, Dixon, Landry, as well as C.J. Prosise who I would also “hold.” I am seeing him dropped at an incredible rate and his owners are being very rash. If the Seahawks really liked Thomas Rawls so much, do you think they would have drafted Prosise AND Alex Collins and signed Christine Michael?
Then again, that’s the opinion of a 3-7 owner. Maybe you should ignore everything from this Week 11 stock report….
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