My week 12 DFS Sleepers and Busts column features players who will be playing on Sunday, but thought I would get into some of the things I, and many of you may be thankful for in terms of Fantasy Football this year!
- Julio Jones, 12 catches, 300 yards, 1 touchdown. In Week 4, Julio Jones securing a victory for me in one of my leagues as well as using him in DraftKings which helped me cash that week was something to be very thankful for. If you lost that week with Julio Jones in your lineup, your team must be god awful.
- Mike Evans, 11 catches, 150 yards, 2 touchdowns. In Week 9, I had one of the greatest Fantasy Football weeks in one of my ESPN leagues, shout out my long time Dedham League. Mike Evans’ performance actually came against Julio Jones’ Atlanta Falcons, so the Falcons have seen on both sides, monster days from wide receivers.
- Derek Carr, 513 yards and 4 touchdowns. Good for 40 points in an ESPN standard league in Week 8 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I wrote about him in my DFS sleepers article that week and he came through for one of my biggest calls of the year. I had him in a lot of DFS lineups that week, and man did he win you some money that week.
- David Johnson, 103 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 7 catches for 57 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown. It put me over the top last week in a big ESPN league on his last receiving touchdown. I had the seventh pick in this year’s draft in that league and was so focused on taking David Johnson. Once it was my pick, I was excited and snagged him instantly. Looking at the draft board, I see DeAndre Hopkins still on the board in this PPR league and put my head down in disgust. Looking back now, I am thankful for sticking with my guns.
There are a lot of players who we can be thankful for in Fantasy Football this year that is for sure. There are a lot of players who we can be not thankful for as well, but lets try to keep it positive on this holiday weekend shall we! Lets take a look at last weeks options.
|Kirk Cousins 30.4 DK, 27.4 FD||Ezekiel Elliott 16.7 DK, 14.7 FD|
|Frank Gore 16.1 DK, 14.1 FD||Stefon Diggs 9.7 DK, 6.7 FD|
Solid Buys and Fades
|Terrelle Pryor Sr. 14.7 DK, 12.2 FD||Jarvis Landry 13.8 DK, 12.1 FD|
Swing and Miss
|Tyrod Taylor 9.5 DK & FD||Dak Prescott 28.6 DK, 25.6 FD|
|Martellus Bennett 2.4 DK, 1.9 FD||Vikings Defense 20 DK & FD|
Here are the Week 12 DFS Sleepers and Busts.
Week 12 DFS Sleepers and Busts
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins, vs. San Francisco 49ers (5,500 DK, 7,100 FD)
He is dirt cheap in both DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend. I am pretty certain this is a first for Ryan Tannehill making the article as a sleeper. He has been showing promise and know that this column has been the real motivation for him to try and make it this week. I can tell, because ever since week 6, they are on a five game win streak and he has six touchdowns to one lone interception. The one thing that you also like is during that streak he has completed 67.8% of his passes.
What has really changed is how they are using Tannehill. Since Week 8, of the quarterbacks who have played at least three games in that span, Tannehill is eighth worst in yards per attempt at 6.52. Check down all you want Ryan. I and millions of DFS owners will be absolutely fine with that.
You can also throw in here that the Dolphins are playing the Niners who are god awful in every defensive department, to be kind. They are second in most passing touchdowns and passing yards allowed since Week 8. The Niners also give up the fifth most Fantasy points to quarterbacks and have allowed 20 or more Fantasy points to quarterbacks in five out of the last seven games. Real nice option in double up cash games this weekend.
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals, at Atlanta Falcons (5,300 DK, 7,100 FD)
The insight and analysis is along the same lines as Ryan Tannehill due to the very favorable matchup. Since Week 8, the Falcons have allowed eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. A quarterback rating of 110.5 which is third worst in that span and the Falcons give up the most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. In fact, every quarterback that has gone against the Falcons, has reached over 10 points this season except for Mike Glennon who came in for one drive with Jameis Winston injured and went 10-11 for 75 yards and a touchdown.
On one drive…
A backup quarterback…
While Carson Palmer has not been great this year or the Cardinals for that matter, this is still a passing offense who is going to continue to throw it in this one against a similar high flying team in the Atlanta Falcons. Palmer has attempted only two less passes than the league leader, Aaron Rogers, since Week 8. The team names represent the style of play, trust me, lots of offense will occur in this game.
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers, at Houston Texans (6,300 DK, 8,000 FD)
The Texans defense is pretty darn good. Now they gave up some plays to Derek Carr on Monday night but I felt they looked explosive and can really rush the passer. The Chargers have allowed 147 total pressures this season which is second worst behind the Indianapolis Colts. Rivers could be in for a tough day at the office.
The Texans also give up the fifth fewest Fantasy points to quarterbacks. Before last Monday Night’s game, only two quarterbacks had thrown two touchdowns on this defense. Rivers will more than likely get his yards but may have a difficult time finding the end zone.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, vs. Arizona Cardinals (6,900 DK, 8,700 FD)
A no can do, especially in FanDuel. The second highest priced quarterback for the Sunday games, you can find other options. Speaking of the second, the Arizona Cardinals allow the second fewest Fantasy points to quarterbacks which is one of the reasons I’m fading Matt Ryan in Week 12. Russell Wilson and Cam Newton both failed to throw a touchdown pass against the Cardinals defense and they both barely managed over 200 yards.
Since Week 8, they have been on quite the run. Only two touchdowns allowed which is first in the league and the third least passing yards allowed. I have Julio Jones this week in a huge matchup and fear that Patrick Peterson may shadow him all game. There are other options out there besides Matty ice.
Running Back Sleepers
Dion Lewis, New England Patriots, at New York Jets (4,000 DK, 4,900 FD)
Get him while he’s cheap people! As you will see in my bust part below, I think in this game, you have to throw the ball. You can throw James White in the mix as well, but I liked Lewis because of his upside and he was a bit cheaper in both DK and FD. Between the two passing down backs, Lewis only saw three less snaps than White in his debut last weekend.
What I liked seeing was that he was also handed the ball five times. That is one thing you like about Lewis over White is the ability to run the ball and be a multi-dimensional player in the back field. He was on pace for over 100 carries before he got hurt in 2015 so he can do it all. The Jets are third best in yards per attempt at 3.5. They have allowed only six rushing touchdowns all season long and have given up the fourth fewest rushing yards this season. I think this a tough game and Tom Brady will have to continue to throw the ball.
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers, at Oakland Raiders (5,000 DK, 6,900 FD)
What is the deal on DraftKings with this price? Has Jonathan Stewart made it known that he plays on FanDuel? Just feel the DK price devalues Stewart and such. Anyway, I like him this week more on DraftKings, not only because of the price but the matchup is quite nice.
I fully understand that he hasn’t ran very well since returning from injury, but he has had a rough schedule against tough front sevens. With Stewart, you are really looking for a touchdown or two as he finds the end zone like no other running back does. The Raiders are third worst in yards per attempt at 4.6, so this game could get him going.
Running Back Busts
LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots, at New York Jets (5,900 DK, 6,800 FD)
I love my Patriots and LeGarrette Blount has been surprisingly great all year long, but the Jets can really stop the run. His last game against the Jets was last year in Week 6. His three games prior, he was averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Against the Jets, this was his stat line: 3 carries for -3 yards.
I have always thought that Blount is an average back in a great system. When he goes up against good opponents who can stop the run, he simply can’t get anything going. I found this very interesting, looking back at the Patriots last four games against the Jets. Only ONE running back carried the ball over 10 times and that guy was Shane Vereen, the passing down back. The most rushing yards they ran for in those last four games was 85 yards in a 2014 matchup.
This front seven of the Jets may be even better this season, so it’s a big NO on Blount this Sunday.
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams, at New Orleans Saints (5,700 DK, 7,500 FD)
So far, Todd Gurley is making a case for biggest bust in Fantasy football this year and one of the players many Fantasy owners won’t be thankful for. His most rushing yards came in Week 2 where he totaled 85 yards on 27 carries, his most carries in a game this season. This past week he had his longest run of the year which went for 24 yards and a touchdown. 24 yards?
Averaging a merely 3.2 yards per carry, that’s a big woof. Many may say, wow, great matchup! I say, did you know that since Week 8, the Saints are second in yards per attempt? Did you also know, they have only allowed one touchdown on the ground and the eighth fewest rushing yards? Well, all of those are true. On the road in Drew Brees’ house just doesn’t sound right to me. I think the Saints are leading much of this game and force Jared Goff and the Rams to throw. No, No, No.
Wide Receiver Sleepers
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins, vs. San Francisco 49ers (4,700 DK, 6,300 FD)
The price is a bit high in FanDuel but DraftKings is really low on this guy. Ryan Tannehill has really gotten Parker more involved in his last two games with a total of 18 targets, hauling in 13 of them for 182 yards and a score in that span. With Jarvis Landry still not 100 percent healthy, we have got to see more of Parker. As we talked about with Tannehill, the 49ers are just a really bad defensive team. He could be in for a real nice day here in a can’t miss matchup.
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals, at Baltimore Ravens (4,000 DK, 5,600 FD)
It is interesting how each site priced out Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell this week without A.J. Green. Boyd was cheaper than LaFell on DraftKings and it was the opposite on FanDuel. I think both guys will get work in this game, even against a very good Ravens defense.
Shockingly, the Baltimore Ravens give up the fourth most Fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Boyd saw one less target than LaFell last week as we saw Green leave the game, who looks to be out for an extended period of time. Six catches on eight targets for 54 yards and the only touchdown of the game against a good Bills pass defense is something I believe the rookie can carry into next week.
Wide Receiver Busts
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, vs. Seattle Seahawks (7,500 DK, 7,900 FD)
The Seahawks have turned it on. Sorry, that may be putting it lightly. The last three weeks, the most Fantasy points scored by a wide receiver against the Hawks was Dorial Green-Beckham and he totaled 11 standard points. They give up the fifth fewest Fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Since Week 8, their touchdown to interception ratio on defense is three touchdowns to four interceptions. Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter did say that Mike Evans would be seeing Richard Sherman quite a bit on Sunday.
Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter to TB media on #Seahawks‘ Richard Sherman “I fully expect that we’ll see him matching Mike” Evans, shadowing
— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) November 21, 2016
Mike Evans is one of the best receivers in the game because of the size he has on small corners but Sherman is no small corner. Sherman is 6’3” while Evans stands at 6’5”. This should be a fun one to watch. Evans is way too talented to not put up numbers, but for the price, it’s too risky.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars, at Buffalo Bills (7,200 DK, 7,400 FD)
I see that Allen Robinson has found the end zone each of his last three games but we can’t ignore what he was doing for teams early on. I mean, he scored a touchdown last week but let me feed you some more stats from that very nice matchup against the Detroit Lions.: 3 catches on 7 targets for 18 yards … Woof.
In the same category as Todd Gurley, his longest catch of the year is 35 yards. For a guy who made big plays, there was an obvious adjustment made by defensive coordinators this season to account for this guy. I do not like the setting this Sunday either. Having to travel after Thanksgiving to Buffalo which is a tough place to play against a Rex Ryan defense. I don’t see it happening this week for Robinson who has a really high price that I would not go near.
Tight End Sleepers
C.J. Fiedorowicz, Houston Texans, vs. San Diego Chargers (3,300 DK, 5,200 FD)
Five or more targets in every game since Week 4 for C.J. Fiedorowicz. The Chargers have given up the seventh most passing yards all season long and if you look at the tight end position for the Sunday games, it does not have much to offer whatsoever. I found it interesting that this guy has outscored the following TEs in standard scoring leagues: Julius Thomas, Gary Barnidge, Zach Ertz and Dennis Pitta. With the Chargers looking to throw a lot in this game, look for the Texans to have to match that.
Tight End Busts
Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals, at Baltimore Ravens (5,600 DK, 6,400 FD)
I do not get the price on either site for Tyler Eifert given the matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. He was the victim of double coverage once A.J. Green went out with an injury this past Sunday. They were held to just 12 points, so look for the Ravens to possibly do something similar.
The Ravens also give up the second fewest Fantasy points to opposing tight ends so far this season. They have allowed one TD on the season and that came against Seth DeValve and the Cleveland Browns. Of course it did. Jordan Reed has had the most receiving yards as a tight end against the Ravens with 53 yards and that is it. Tough matchup, no go.
Tennessee Titans Defense, at Chicago Bears (2,800 DK, 4,500 FD)
Some may say that Jay Cutler actually helps the Chicago Bears passing offense, but I would say it is a downgrade going from Cutler to Matt Barkley. He has shown absolutely nada in the NFL. Actually, I take that back, he has shown us how not to play quarterback and throw interceptions. He is pretty good at that. A few turnovers are almost a lock for this Titans defense.
New England Patriots Defense at New York Jets (3,400 DK, 4,900 FD)
It pains me to put the Patriots on this section but to be fair, they have been terrible defensively since trading away Jamie Collins. I hate to be that guy Patriots fans, but it is true. Why they traded away Jamie Collins is something that I still can’t wrap my head around. The Patriots defense has also created just nine total turnovers which is tied for third worst in the league. Now the Patriots defense is always the ‘bend but don’t break’ style as they are again showing that. They allow the third fewest points allowed but they still give up yards. You can’t rely on this defense right now until they get things figured out.
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