As the senior writers rotate back around and I tackle the DFS Strategy for Week 13, I am looking to find myself as well as help you.
I am in a weekly Draft Kings contest with guys in one of my big money Fantasy leagues. It’s just a $10, winner takes all weekly contest with the main slate of afternoon games.
We started it last season, and I had the second most wins in the regular season as well as a playoff win in which we upped the ante. This season I am sitting on a big, fat, goose egg.
The most frustrating part is my teams have been good, save for a single week. We ran a Thanksgiving contest as well, so of the 13 completed contests, my DFS Strategy has yielded 10 Top-4 finishes but zero wins. I have the highest average finish and by far the highest average points but have yet to win. Where am I going wrong?
That is my goal with the Week 13 DFS Strategy. I want to win a smaller, single-entry contest since that is what most of us are playing anyway. I have found that the average winning score in my league is 170 points. That is skewed by a couple of massive weeks so I feel safe saying that 170 points will get me a win.
All of the prices are from Draft Kings and the DFS strategy is geared toward the afternoon slate that has 13 games. All information is up to date as of November 28.
Week 13 DFS Strategy
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns, $5,600
Baker Mayfield has proven to be worth the first overall pick in the draft so far.
How has your team’s first round pick performed? ($)https://t.co/K48AbapkqX
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 28, 2018
Since shedding the ball and chain that is Hue Jackson, Mayfield has averaged 22.5 Fantasy Points per game. He has increased his point total each week while throwing for nine touchdowns and just one interception. The emergence of Nick Chubb has opened up the lanes for the rookie Brown and he’s learning on the fly.
Other Quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson, $5,900; Cam Newton, $6,600; and Matthew Stafford, $5,400
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams, $9,300
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers, $8,800
I know, it does not take a genius to give you the highest cost running backs. Hear me out on this though: it’s totally worth it in a smaller contest. I get that if you are trying to become a millionaire then you need to find (and get extremely lucky or put in thousands of entries) nine different options that score as much as these guys. That’s not what we are trying to do though.
The guarantee of 55 points between these two is too valuable to pass up. Gurley has at least 25 Fantasy Points in 11 of 13 games with 19.9 and 12.4 in the other two. McCaffrey has at least five receptions and 110 total yards in each of the last four games. They have unleashed him as a receiver and with Devin Funchess likely out again, he will get even more targets.
While it is expensive, fielding these two backs with a quality quarterback is already getting you to the 75-plus point range. So we need just 90 points from our other six players.
Other Running Backs I Like: Saquon Barkley, $7,900 (he is right there with McCaffrey); Theo Riddick, $4,700; T.J. Yeldon, $4,400; and Jordan Howard, $4,000
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers, $5,600
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns, $5,300
Bruce Ellington, Detroit Lions, $3,500
Moore proved he was not a one-week wonder and followed up his 157-yard outing against the Lions with an 8-catch, 91-yard day against Seattle. With Funchess at least hobbled, Moore will be the WR1 again. You can count on him for at least 16-17 Fantasy Points.
The Texans have given up the sixth-fewest Fantasy Points to wide receivers. I think this is misleading though; they have had the easiest schedule of opposing wide receivers all season. When they have faced even above average receivers they have given up 43.28 points per game. I like Landry to get at least 14 Fantasy Points this week.
Ellington is looking to fill the hole left by the Marvin Jones injury. The Lions have already shown that he will take over a big chunk of the target share as he has 16 targets over the last two games. With at least six catches in both outings, I would say he is good for that number again with 50-60 yards. That brings us to around 42 Fantasy Points from our wide receivers and 117 overall.
Other Wide Receivers I Like: Emmanuel Sanders, $6,300; Tyreek Hill, $9,100; Allen Robinson, $5,700; and Dede Westbrook, $4,500
Nobody loves Jack Doyle more than Eric Ebron, but the Colts breakout star at TE is ready to step up in place of his injured teammate again https://t.co/7Mov2v7qRg
— Joel A. Erickson (@JoelAErickson) November 27, 2018
Eric Ebron, Indianapolis Colts, $4,200
In Ebron’s last two full games he has 49.6 Fantasy Points. While the two touchdowns per game is unsustainable, I think he will reach the five reception mark now that Jack Doyle is out for the season. Andrew Luck is in love with his tight ends in the Red Zone as we all know, so give me a score and 60 yards for 17 Fantasy Points.
Other Tight Ends I Like: Travis Kelce, $7,000; Greg Olsen, $4,100; and Cameron Brate, $3,700
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens, $4,800
Edwards is probably the most mispriced player in DFS this week. He is a legit workhorse back now in Baltimore and with Lamar Jackson at the helm, that is a profitable role in Fantasy Football. The Falcons have given up the third-most Fantasy Points to running backs on the season. I think that the 115 yards that Edwards has reached each of the last two weeks is a floor for his rushing production. I’m also betting on him getting into the end zone as well as them working him into the passing game for a couple of catches. Slot Edwards in for 22 Fantasy Points.
Gus Edwards has been one of the highest-graded runners since he took the Baltimore job. pic.twitter.com/JC6kZiFWzT
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 28, 2018
Green Bay Packers, $2,800
In home games this year the Packers D/ST is averaging 12.4 Fantasy Points per game. While it has not been a murderer’s row of quarterbacks, Josh Rosen and the Cardinals might be the second-worst offense to come to town. They are at least giving up the second-most Fantasy Points to defenses. I like the Packers to get at least 15 Fantasy Points this week.
Other Defenses I Like: Seahawks, $3,400; Bills, $2,900; Broncos, $2,700; and Jets, $2,200
So add up my projections for each player and you get to 171 Fantasy Points on Draft Kings. You can also see that the projections are not much more than each player’s average outside of Edwards and Ellington, but their averages do not factor in their new roles. I like my chances this week with this lineup and I hope that my DFS strategy can help you as well! Good luck!
- Early Look Ahead to the 2019 Fantasy Football Season - December 31, 2018
- Week 14 DFS Strategy: Deciphering the New Starting Running Landscape - December 9, 2018
- Week 13 DFS Strategy : The Quest For 170 Points And A Win - December 1, 2018