Weekly Value-Based Drafting had another decent week in daily Fantasy last week. I was one switch away from having a great weekend. My All-Value lineup only yielded slightly over 100 points on FanDuel, but if you just switched the quarterbacks and tight ends out of my suggestion, then you ended up with over 130.
Matt Hasselbeck and Greg Olsen let me down scoring just 15.78 points combined, but Tyrod Taylor and Jordan Reed totaled 42.5. While I did not hit the exact players with my main lineup, I did hit the right strategy: elite tight end, cheap quarterback.
As for running backs, my best lineup gave you two of the Top 12 scoring backs for the weekend. My receivers were solid, but not spectacular with only Larry Fitzgerald coming up pretty short. The elite receiver was the way to go with Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall all providing value for the cost, along with the sudden emergence of the Seahawks’ wide-out group.
I will be sticking with this lineup strategy, and just making a few different heads up lineups with my suggestions.
As usual, these prices and projections are for the FanDuel style of play, but I have thrown in a few DraftKings nuggets as well. The Value Factor (VF) is a quantity of the player’s projected points against the cost to put him on your roster.
Value-Based Drafting Targets
Value of the Week : Tim Hightower, New Orleans Saints (VF : 4.29)
In continuing with the “backup running back getting a larger role” part of my Weekly Value-Based Drafting strategy, Hightower is a perfect candidate. Just recently signed, he was given the bulk of the load left behind by Mark Ingram’s season ending injury. That bulk resulted in 28 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown against a Tampa Defense ranked in the Top 10 of the league against the rush.
This week, Hightower gets a much friendlier test against Detroit who has given up the second most rushing touchdowns in the league. Priced as only the 19th highest running back, I have Hightower projected to score the third most points.
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (VF : 3.75)
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (VF : 3.78)
Anyone who watched Monday Night Football saw Eli Manning just torch the Dolphins. They have now given up the third most touchdown passes of anyone in the league. This week, Philip Rivers gets the duty of picking their secondary apart. I have him projected as the fifth highest scoring quarterback while only costing you the 13th most money.
Wilson has been on an absolute tear, with 14 touchdowns over his last three games, and 17 over his last four. He’s topped 32 total points in each of the last three weeks and now gets to face Cleveland who has given up three or more touchdown passes along with 350-plus yards three different times in their last 10 games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is extremely low on DraftKings at only $5,400.
Brandon Bolden, New England Patriots (VF : 4.32)
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals (VF : 4.71)
Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (VF : 4.76)
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (VF : 4.83)
The first two suggestions provide two more backups getting larger roles. Bolden is the favorite to get the LaGarrette Blount touches (although if the team signs and activates Steven Jackson I would hold off). David Johnson was my Value of the Week last week and he came through with almost 15 points. I have them projected as the seventh and sixth highest scoring backs this week, while costing you only the 35th and 14th most money.
Murray is priced as the 29th most expensive running back and it has a lot to do with his 2.7 points last week. Well I saw the Cowboys run all over Green Bay and I think Murray will be worth the price. I have Peterson projected as the highest scoring running back by a wide margin, making his top price point worth it.
On DraftKings, Bolden and Hightower are even more valuable at just $3,200 and $3,900, respectively.
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (VF : 5.01)
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (VF : 5.14)
Eric Decker, New York Jets (VF : 5.15)
Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (VF : 5.23)
As I have previously outlined, going with a couple of super-elite talents at wide receiver is the safest strategy in Daily Fantasy games due to the guaranteed targets. Julio and Antonio are my two choices this week. I have them as basically 1A and 1B by projections and they cost just $200 different.
Fun fact: Doug Baldwin and Eric Decker are fourth and sixth in the league in touchdown catches by wide receivers. More importantly, they are playing two teams this week (Cleveland and Dallas) who are in the battle for the first pick in the draft. As the 12th and 11th highest priced receivers, they will bring solid value.
If Stevie Johnson is fully healthy, I love his price, again, of just $4,500 on DraftKings.
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (VF : 5.23)
Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers (VF : 5.51)
Once again, I will roll with Greg Olsen as my top tight end target. He has just 50 fewer yards than Rob Gronkowski, but with more total receptions. I have him just behind Gronk as the second highest scoring tight end, but you can save $1,700 to put him on your roster.
Antonio Gates has seemed to have an up-and-down season, but he does have at least four catches in seven of his last eight games and six catches in five of the last eight. I have him projected as the No. 3 tight end this week but he costs you just the ninth most money.
Eric Ebron has hit rock bottom on DraftKings at $3,000, but this week he plays the Saints who give up the most points of any defense against tight ends.
My All-Value Team
QB: Philip Rivers
RB: Tim Hightower
RB: Brandon Bolden
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Eric Decker
WR: Doug Baldwin
TE: Greg Olsen
D/ST: Seattle Seahawks
K: Nick Novak
Normally I am not a high spender on defenses, but when you can get the Legion of Boom against Johnny Manziel, you just have to do it. That price point ($5,400) causes you to go a little lower at other spots, but this is a good week for it.
With two inexpensive backup running backs having strong projections as well as Philip Rivers’ nice matchup, I was still able to fit one super-elite and two other top tier receivers in, along with Olsen.
As I said earlier, be sure to mix and match your lineups to get strong value overall. Good luck and hopefully these value-based drafting targets lead you to victory this week!
[su_box title=”SCFE Fantasy Football Weekly Content” box_color=”#d75c37″]SCFE Fantasy Football: Rankings | Daily Fantasy Football | Waiver Wire | Start & Sit | Fantasy Points Allowed by Position | Injury Report | Rookie Report | Game Previews | Game Recaps[/su_box]
- Early Look Ahead to the 2019 Fantasy Football Season - December 31, 2018
- Week 14 DFS Strategy: Deciphering the New Starting Running Landscape - December 9, 2018
- Week 13 DFS Strategy : The Quest For 170 Points And A Win - December 1, 2018