Before we get to the Week 4 Start or Sit, there was something I wanted to address. Too many people in the Fantasy Industry do not take accountability. They throw out headline-click bait and preposterous predictions and never look back. I kept track of a couple of the more renowned analysts’ preseason predictions. One of them had 27 players that “must be drafted” in the Top 20 picks. Another guy gave different forecasts for the same player.
Take a stand. Own up to your mistakes. Only then, should you be able to revel in your correct picks. But don’t overload Twitter about your love for Aaron Rodgers if you aren’t going to talk about your “Sit” of Jeremy Hill. So going forward, I am going to be more accountable for my own Start or Sit picks. I will be keeping statistics of my wins/losses as it comes to my Start or Sit predictions.
If a guy outperforms his ranking as a Start, then it’s a win. If he does so as a Sit, then it’s a loss. Vice versa for the under performing. If someone outperforms/under-performs their ranking by 12 or more spots, it will be a Major Win. By these metrics, my Start or Sit predictions were 10-8 in Week 3, with 9 Major Wins.
My tight ends were my best position last week, as I gave you Jimmy Graham as a Start and Rob Gronkowski as a Sit. Graham was ranked 20th at the position and finished third, while Gronk was ranked 5th at the position and finished LAST. Conversely, I was way off in my Start or Sit about Matthew Stafford and LeSean McCoy as Sits. Both finished in the Top-3 at their position.
Once again, for our Start or Sit purposes I am going to focus on guys that are ranked outside of the Top 24 RB/WRs and Top 10 QB/TEs for my “starts,” and inside the Top 20 RB/WRs and Top 8 QB/TEs for my “sits.”
Week 4 Start or Sit
(All consensus rankings are based off the staff consensus rankings for each position.)
Brian Hoyer, QB, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (QB26)
Hoyer quietly put up 317 yards and two touchdowns last weekend in his first start of the year. He also did not turn the ball over. Now I know the Cowboys defense is not the most stout, but the Lions defense is giving up the most points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Give me Hoyer over Ben Roethlisberger or Matt Ryan this week.
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings (QB15)
Anyone that reads my picks against the spread blog knows that I believe in something called The Opposite Theory in the NFL. If a team covers the week before and is playing a team that failed to cover the previous week, take the team that did not cover. It’s basically a zig-zag theory. This could not come more into play with the Vikings coming off a monster win over Carolina and the Giants blowing a lead to Washington. Eli puts up 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns.
Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders (RB41)
Forsett has seen his rushing yards decrease each week in the young season and many think Terrance West is the lead back going forward. I am a PPR man though, and I look at how Forestt has increased his receptions each game. He still leads the Ravens backs in touches and snaps and has a juicy matchup with the Raiders this week. I think he bounces back with 100 total yards and 6 receptions.
Dexter McCluster, RB, San Diego Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints (RB47)
McCluster is another PPR pick, but I think he will pay off in deeper leagues and daily contests. The diminutive back did not get many snaps last week, but he only had been on the team three days. He still had two catches on three targets, and would have had a touchdown if Philip Rivers did not overthrow him. With a full week of practice, I think McCluster fills more of Danny Woodhead’s snaps. Throw in the awful Saints’ defense, and McCluster finishes with 75 total yards and 6 catches.
Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings (WR25)
The @sterl_shep3 route was PERFECT.
The Eli pass was PERFECT.
— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2016
Shepard has started off his NFL career beautifully. He is averaging 17.1 PPR points a game and no game with less than 13.3 points. He either has 100 yards or a score in all three games. He is a must-start at this point for me, especially in PPR leagues. Yet, he is still ranked outside of the Top-20 at the position. As much as I like Eli this week, I like Shepard even more to the tune of 8 catches, 96 yards and a touchdown.
Cole Beasley, WR, Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers (WR40)
Fun fact: guess who is leading the Cowboys in receptions, yards and targets? Cole Beasley. He is fifth in the league in receptions. I have always said that Cole Beasley is not a good football player and I still believe that. However, when you get to run routes between Dez Bryant and Jason Witten while the other team has to load the box to stop arguably the best rushing attack in the game, it’s not that hard. Dak Prescott is taking what the defense gives him, and that continues to be Beasley. Give me 8 catches and 85 yards for the former Mustang.
Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (WR44)
White has disappointed Fantasy Owners in his delayed rookie season. He has yet to score a touchdown or even reach 65 yards in a game. However, Brian Hoyer targeted White FOURTEEN times Sunday night. He only hauled in six of those throws, but I think the volume continues against the Lions. This could be White’s breakout game, so if someone in your league dropped him, scoop him up before he puts up a 8-120-1 stat line Sunday.
Coby Fleener, TE, New Orleans Saints vs. San Diego Chargers (TE11)
Fleener finally had the game that Fantasy Owners had been waiting for against the Falcons. After just three catches for 25 yards through the first two games, he exploded for 7 receptions, 109 yards and a touchdown. Insert a matchup with San Diego, which has given up the most yards to tight ends this season, and Fleener will be a Top-5 option this week.
Indianapolis Colts D/ST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DST20)
There’s not many good options for defensive streamers this week, as all of the best match-ups involve must-own defenses. Jacksonville gives up the fifth most points to Defenses and the Colts should avoid a goose egg.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (QB6)
I have Big Ben outside of my Top 12 this week after what Kansas City was able to do last week against the Jets. Marcus Peters is the real deal, and while he may not be able to shut Antonio Brown down, he will slow him along with the rest of the Steelers’ receivers.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins vs. Cleveland Browns (QB10)
I know, I’m kind of cheating as he is outside of the Top 8, but I just wanted to point out that this might be the last week I rank him even this high. He is not a starter for me, and until he can hit open receivers or gain the confidence from his teammates, he will remain on the outside looking in.
Charles Sims, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos (RB17)
The Broncos are giving up less than 30 yards receiving a game to running backs, and that is Sims’ bread and butter. I expect the Broncos to get up on Tampa Bay and force Jameis Winston to throw down the field. There just won’t be enough touches for Sims.
Christine Michael, RB, Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Jets (RB11)
After a break-out game last week, Michael has climbed all the way into RB1 territory. However, this is not the week to count on him. The Jets have given up the second fewest rushing yards this season, and fourth fewest Fantasy Points per game. Michael will be startable, but not this week.
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers (WR6)
I have Julio slated for back-to-back bad games, and outside of my Top 12 this week. The Panthers have given up the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers in the league, at less than 100 yards per game. This proves that it was the system more than Josh Norman, but I digress. Odds are you probably don’t have someone to start for Julio, but I would avoid him in weekly contests and like Sterling Shepard, Doug Baldwin and Tyrell Williams more than him this week.
Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers (WR13)
No practice for Dez Bryant, knee still being evaluated https://t.co/8NjHMEud5q
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) September 28, 2016
I’ll give you another elite option, and this time I think you sit him no matter what. At this point that I am writing this, the MRI has not returned on Dez’ knee. This is quite troublesome and sounds like they are seeking a second opinion on it. Even if he plays, he is not practicing and I would guess that Jason Garrett takes it easy on him this week.
Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans (TE5)
Walker is still questionable for this week after missing last weekend. So not only is he uncertain to play, but if he does, I think he will be limited. Throw in the fact that Houston has given up just 58 receiving yards to tight ends and Walker is outside of my Top 12 this week.
There’s your Week 4 Start or Sit plays! If you have any lineup questions, shoot them to us on Twitter at @Tomlin3 or @SoCalledFanEx.
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