ATTENTION: for those of you expecting another article about the return of Tom Brady, the exit for DFS busts is on your left.
So with that out of the way, let’s move on. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Man, did I completely miss on that DFS bust call. 800 yards and 5 TDs? What a crazy game and amazing feat for those guys. Matty Ice looks like a man possessed.
On the flip side, the other DFS bust duo that I picked actually busted. And it was beautiful. Eli Manning still can’t find the end zone while Odell Beckham is one episode away from a straight jacket. Dude needs to chill out.
Cameron Brate broke into double digits but he was still outscored by several other TEs of similar or less value. Todd Gurley and Charles Sims both fell flat. And the Patriots Defense severely underperformed against what looks like a revived Bills offense.
Another week, another steady diet of DFS bust picks to help you focus your dollars elsewhere.
Week 5 DFS Busts
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers ($6,800 DK/$8,100 FD)
This kid has looked very good to start the year. He has a high TD-to-INT rate (9-1) and has completed upwards of 68% of his passes. His matchup even looks great. The Chargers could put on 2010-2014 Saints uniforms and no one would flinch.
However, I think Latavius Murray has been a big issue in that offense. DeAndre Washington will have more success running the ball, and I see that impacting Carr’s upside potential. Especially if they are able to get out to a quick lead and play ball control.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns $(7,500 DK/$8,700 FD)
If no one hears from me next week, it’s because some angry Boston sports fan found me and bored me to death about Tom’s return. But seriously, this has more to do with his cost. He’s the third highest QB on DraftKings. The guy hasn’t seen live action since playing catch with Giselle.
In all seriousness, I see LeGarrette Blount having a big day and stealing all his TDs. We could also see a Patriots defensive TD as they look to rebound. I see Brady’s overall numbers looking quite average in today’s NFL (275, 2 TDs) and will end up in the middle of the pack this week.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Ben Roethlisberger (vs NYJ), Philip Rivers (@ OAK)
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots ($4,800DK/$6,800 FD)
This is a tough DFS bust call. On the surface, this seems like an interesting value play. He is getting plenty of carries and has scored a TD in 3 out of 4 games this year. However, the Patriots defense is typically stingy against the run and will be amped up from the return of “he who shall not be named.”
My gut is telling me that the Patriots will look to shut down Crowell and make Cody Kessler air it out. This will be a tough week for him but there are brighter days ahead.
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills ($6,500 DK/$7,600 FD)
Putting him on here, yet again. People continue to put him in their lineups hoping for a blowout performance. He’s been very mediocre outside of a 2 TD performance in Week 3 vs the Bucs. This week will be no different.
The Buffalo Bills defense has been very good against the run this year. Gurley will have a low yardage total and will likely need plenty of targets to be productive. He won’t circle the wagons against the wagon circlers.
Similar Cost Alternatives: LeSean McCoy (@ LA), Terrance West (vs WAS)
Odell Beckham Jr, New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings ($8,500 DK/$8,500 FD)
They say don’t mix emotion with Fantasy Football. Well if he can have the emotions of a toddler who doesn’t want to eat his veggies, then I can put him on my DFS bust list (again) out of spite.
He has already been shut down several times this year. And while the Packers are not the Vikings on defense, if they can be physical they have a decent chance at slowing him down. Prediction? OBJ gets more yards on pass interference calls than he does with his receptions.
Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles ($7,600 DK/$7,800 FD)
This one is solely based on the matchup. The Eagles defense has been very sound under Schwartz, with a secondary near the top of the league. This will not be the same 2015 Thanksgiving Day matchup. Stafford is coming off a rough game but will see green jerseys coming at him all day.
I just don’t see a huge game out of Marvin this week. Simple as that.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Jordy Nelson (vs NYG), Mike Evans (@ CAR)
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans ($3.600 DK/$5,500 FD)
The apple of Sam Bradford’s eye, Rudy has scored a TD in the last 3 games for the Vikings. I see that streak coming to an end against the Texans. And with the TE position in DFS, TDs are what you need to add value at the position. My magic eight-ball tells me he will place somewhere in the 6-8 pt range.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Zach Miller (@ IND), Zach Ertz (vs DET)
Cincinnati Bengals, at Dallas Cowboys ($2,800 DK/$4,700 FD)
Dak Prescott has not turned the ball over in 131 attempts this year. As a rookie QB, he has been very cautious with the ball and has used his legs to escape bad situations. If this game was in Cincinnati I may think differently, but right now Dak has this Cowboys team charging. Passing on the Bengals…
Similar Cost Alternatives: Philadelphia Eagles (vs DET)
- Week 5 DFS Busts: The Return of Brady? Not Yet. - October 8, 2016
- Week 4 DFS Busts: Your QB/WR Stack Attack is Whack - October 1, 2016
- THAT Fantasy Guy: What’s Wrong With Your Team - September 27, 2016