David Carr has made me look stupider than probably any other player.
I have the Ravens as my fantasy defense in nearly all my leagues. I was still smarting from the smackdown he put on them, when the text arrived:
“So where do you have David Carr ranked now?”
It was my buddy whom I told after he drafted Carr that I barely had Carr in my top 20 QBs. Of course he is now the number three overall fantasy quarterback.
I still think he’s overrated. But the fact remains that if you have stock in Carr, it is through the roof right now…
Week 5 Fantasy Football Stock Watch
Popping: Players Whose Stock is Rising
David Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
Part of the reason Carr has had success is because he’s thrown the ball so much. He’s 9th in attempts. But volume is volume and that’s not necessarily under his control. Let’s look at some of stats….
Despite playing three defenses that give up some of the most fantasy points to QBs, Carr finds himself 15th in total passing yards. That’s behind some luminaries as Alex Smith and Joe Flacco. That’s also ahead of Russell Wilson, Cam Newton and upstart Carson Wentz. Want to bet he doesn’t fall farther down the list?
I know, you might be skeptical given the number of long touchdowns he seems to throw all the time, right? Well, guess what–his yards per attempt is 29th in the league! Okay, okay, let’s be fair and take out the guys like Trevone Boykin. Carr still barely cracks the Top 25! Freakin Brian Hoyer has a better yards per attempt than Carr! But wait, there’s more.
He’s a mediocre 18th in First Down Percentage. Kirk Cousins, who doesn’t have half the talent at WR that Carr has, has a better percentage. Speaking of talent, Carr has one of the best duo of receivers in Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. I saw that first hand in person this weekend, but the stats bear it out too. Both Crabtree and Cooper for example have a lower drop rate than half of the top four fantasy receivers (Crabtree is currently 5th)–Marvin Jones has a drop rate of 8+% and AJ Green (4.6%) while Cooper has a rate of 2.9% and Crabtree matches Julio Jones 0% drop rate.
I do think that Carr has one more good week. Or perhaps the Hooters said it best….
But after this weekend, I expect any value you will get from Carr to drop “Day by Day”.
Too many 80s song references for you? Let’s move onto a player that is popping that was even born when that album came out…
Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders
I’ll bet anyone there were a lot more victorious Crabtree owners on Sunday than losing ones. When the typical WR2 in your lineup goes off for three touchdowns, you’re probably in pretty good shape.
Crabtree is obviously not going to score three touchdowns every week. However, this was Crabtree’s third game with seven or more more receptions and over 80 receiving yards. Is this production something we should expect to see from Crabtree? The answer is yes.
For one, Crabtree is on pace for 1224 receiving yards. That’s not that much higher than the 1100+ yards he had in 2012. And if Crabtree continues at his current rate, he would top over 100 receptions for the first time. But he had 85 receptions twice during those ball control years with the 49ers. Is it really a stretch to see him top 100 with Carr as his QB and Amari Cooper on the other side?
I would not buy Crabtree as he’s not going to score 16 TDs this year having never scored more than nine previously. Yet I would absolutely hold onto him. And we go from one wide receiver everyone is wondering if they should buy, to one everyone is wondering if they should sell….
Dropping: Players Whose Stock is Falling
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants
Like Odell above, some of his owners and fans have wanted to close their eyes. Let’s start with a sampling of headlines, shall we?
- This should be Giants’ first step to fix Odell Beckham – New York Post
- Giants’ Odell Beckham Jr. falling prey to his emotions – Newsday
- The Giants have an Odell Beckham Jr. problem – USA TODAY
- Odell Beckham Jr. is a whining, tantrum-throwing mess, but the Giants shouldn’t worry – Fox Sports
The media has completely overreacted but I think Fox Sports got it right. But the media frenzy is causing his stock to drop. Oh, you don’t think his stock is not dropping? Here’s a list of a players he was traded straight up for on Yahoo! as recently as Wed the 5th: Alshon Jeffrey, Will Fuller, Doug Baldwin, Kelvin Benjamin
Are any of those WRs scrubs? No. But are those owners out of their FREAKING MINDS?
OBJ (or ODB if you prefer) is a talented first round receiver. That’s both NFL and fantasy. He should not be traded for the like of any of the above. Some of his critics are pointing to Sterling Shepard for example stealing his thunder. Yet Beckham Jr. still leads the team with 39 targets. So what’s the problem?
We know Josh Norman’s favorite sparring partner has been kept out of the end zone so far, but are his numbers really that much lower? Let’s compare the first four games of 2015 with the first four games of 2016 shall we?
|Yards Per Game
Wow, it’s like night and day, isn’t it?
The Giants play the Packers this weekend. Green Bay has given up the 2nd most fantasy points to receivers per game. Buy Beckham and buy him NOW.
He’s not the only receiver however whose stock has dropped that I can’t believe how far it has dropped.
Tajae Sharp, WR, Tennessee Titans
Sharp is the sixth most dropped WR in Yahoo and three of the guys ahead of him include the suspended Josh Gordon, the headed to IR Kevin White, and the gimpy and on a bye Tyler Lockett. So he is currently the third most dropped WR that is actually playing this weekend.
Again, this makes no sense to me. Okay, I understand the rationale. His combined stats of 5 catches for 62 yards over the last two weeks is not exactly sparkling. But not every rookie can be Randy Moss. There are going to be some bumps. And have you seen his upcoming schedule? Miami, Cleveland, Indy, JAX, SD, and GB. Five of those teams are ranked in the top 12 for surrendering the most offensive fantasy points. And the one that is not? Jacksonville, which sits at 16. I can understand you might not want to start Sharpe at this point right now, but he is a definite buy and if you own him I certainly would not drop him.
Done reading about falling and rising player values? Looking for something else? Maybe try My Playbook to figure out who is going to pop or drop next.
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