Let’s start the Week 5 Hitting Planner with some Jose Bautista talk.
The Braves recently signed Joey Bats to push for ABs dispelling a productive tandem of Ryan Flaherty and Johan Camargo in some form. Camargo might be the odd man out, but the Braves could also push him into a super utility role.
Both Flaherty and Camargo are under-the-radar players, so keep an eye out on this situation.
Week 5 Hitting Planner
It should be a stormy week in Colorado, but luckily the Rockies travel in Week 5. The weekend could see more weather issues in the northeast. Boston, New York, and Washington D.C. all have a chance of rain at some point this weekend. The Nationals/ Pirates series projects as the only one to be affected in Week 5.
The Maryland/ D.C. area has not been kind to hitters this season. Both Camden Yards and Nationals Park classify as major pitchers parks leading into Week 5. Nationals Park rests in the bottom half of every Park Factor including being dead last in Runs (.654 PF). While Camden Yards looks better, by comparison, they still do not have a PF above one this season. The worst of which is their .791 PF in Hits coming in Week 5.
Stolen Base Report
The Marlins are still the only team this season to have thrown out more attempted base stealers (14) than stolen bases allowed (11). That trend will be tested in Week 5 as both the Marlins opponents like to run.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Mets continue their season-long struggles against stolen bases. They allow 80% of runners to successfully steal a base. The Phillies allow the second most steals (24) but are doing so at an 83% clip (highest in the MLB)
Matt Olsen, OAK (at SEA, vs. BAL)
The Mariners 1.52 HR/9 and the Orioles 1.39 HR/9 stand as the second and fourth worst for MLB pitching staffs. It just so happens that Matt Olson faces both those pitching staffs in Week 5.
Coming into the week, Olson sports a .125 BA. It does not scream start me, but he has some peripheral stats that could change your mind. Over the past two weeks, Olson’s average exit velocity rose to 96.6 mph (11th among qualified batters) from 93 mph (33rd among qualified batters).
Looking at what happened with those batted balls hit above 100 mph, we see a trend of groundball outs with a few singles peppered in. This reflects his batted ball distribution (45.5% FB, 45.5% GB) in the same sample size. Key in on the 45.5% FB rate. That should easily translate to extra-base hits in the Week 5 Hitting Planner.
Lewis Brinson, MIA (vs PHI, at CIN)
Marlins outfielder, Lewis Brinson, could be the perfect storm in Week 5. While the standard stats don’t say much, Brinson has begun to heat up. He has taken his average exit velocity from 78.3 mph a week ago to 94.4 this past week. The Reds pitching staff sports a 1.58 HR/9 (worst in MLB) and the Phillies can’t throw out anyone trying to steal a base. Brinson has 60-grade speed and 60-grade power according to most scouts, so look for a big week.
- Week 25 Hitting Planner: Odd Player and Odd Weather - September 16, 2018
- Week 24 Hitting Planner: The Cold Never Bothered Us Anyway - September 9, 2018
- Week 23 Hitting Planner: What Time is it? Half Past Calhoun - September 2, 2018