I had another week in the green with a 10-7 record on my Start-Sit predictions, including seven major wins. There were a couple of unlucky breaks keeping it from being a monster week, but I have a great feeling about the Week 5 Start-Sit plays as we enter Bye Week territory.
With four teams off this week, there are more lineup decisions to be made than any of the previous weeks this season. This is where you have to find the diamonds in the rough to start and sit the guys getting over-valued because of other players on bye week.
Just starting your “studs” does not always work out. Just look at Jay Ajayi and Amari Cooper last week. Making the tough calls, especially entering bye-week territory, is what separates championship teams from teams struggling to make the playoffs.
As always I am keeping track of my predictions. Going into the Week 5 Start-Sit picks I am 42-26 with 27 major wins. Just a reminder, a “win” is correctly picking a start that out-performs his rankings and under-performs as a sit. A “loss” is the opposite happening. A major win is when a guy over- or under-performs by 12 or more spots.
So let’s get to the Week 5 Start-Sit plays. For our Week 5 Start-Sit projections, I am going to focus on guys ranked outside of the Top-24 RB/WRs and Top-10 QB/TEs for my Starts. I will focus on guys inside the Top-20 RB/WRs and Top-8 QB/TEs for my Sits.
Week 5 Start-Sit
(All rankings based off of the Fantasy Pros consensus PPR rankings as of 10/5)
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Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (QB12)
I know, Ben has not been great. I also know that Jacksonville’s defense has been phenomenal. But hear me out here: regression. The Jags are only giving up 6.2 (!!!) Fantasy points a game to opposing quarterbacks and we are a quarter through the season now. There’s no way that any defense will continue that trend, let alone the Jaguars. Plus, you get Ben at home after a big game by LeVeon Bell and this has the makings of a Top-5 day for Roethlisberger.
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (QB28)
Again, not a sexy pick here. Flacco has yet to throw for 240 yards in a game this season and has almost twice as many turnovers as touchdowns. Oakland’s defense has yet to pick a pass off and has given up the fifth most points to opposing quarterbacks. While I don’t think he will have an elite week or anything, this ranking is too low and he is a viable QB2.
Hue Jackson: “I believe in Isaiah Crowell”:… https://t.co/lwIbcvj0N0
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 5, 2017
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets (RB27)
If not this week then Crowell will officially be droppable. But isn’t that usually when someone breaks out? The Jets are giving up the third most points to opposing running backs and Crowell is DUE.
Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise, RB’s, Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (RB40/41)
With the Chris Carson injury, the Seahawks backfield is pretty muddy right now between these two, Eddie Lacy and J.D. McKissic. I think Rawls will get the majority of the early-down work and if Prosise plays, he will be the go-to pass-catching back.
Alfred Morris, RB, Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers (RB75)
The Cowboys are going to run the ball A TON Sunday. As we saw last week, Morris has become adept at maximizing the small doses of opportunity that come his way. I think he produces enough in a secondary role to warrant starting in super-deep leagues.
Rishard Matthews, WR, Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (WR25)
Matthews has definitely distanced himself as the wide receiver to own in Tennessee. He is averaging eight targets a game, but with a paltry 53% catch rate. I think the targetshare continues and the catch rate improves. And I mean, did you see the Dolphins last week?
Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (WR32)
This is how close Martavis Bryant was to having two more HUGE fantasy weeks … they’re coming. pic.twitter.com/hDJvAjcCEM
— Matt Franciscovich (@MattFranchise) October 3, 2017
With Jalen Ramsey focused on Antonio Brown, I think Ben’s primary target will be Bryant. All it takes is one big opening for the speedster and he will return value on this ranking.
Martellus Bennett, TE, Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (TE11)
Marty B loves playing his original team that let him go. He has at least four catches in every game he has played against the Cowboys and scores every other game. The last time out against Dallas, he posted a 12-84-1 line.
Tyler Kroft, TE, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills (TE17)
If Eifert is out, then Kroft is a must-start. Andy Dalton just loves throwing to his tight end in the Red Zone and Kroft was a massive beneficiary of that last week. I think it continues against the Bills.
San Francisco 49ers D/ST at Indianapolis Colts (D/ST23)
The Colts are giving up 33% more points to opposing defenses than the SECOND worst offense. The 49ers are not a great unit, but the Colts have a penchant for giving up defensive touchdowns.
Just have to pull the trigger and hit 82 on that skinny. pic.twitter.com/HrThDlRqNR
— Bob Sturm (@SportsSturm) October 3, 2017
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers (QB4)
While it may seem like the Packers have been torched by opposing quarterbacks this short season, it was really just Matt Ryan. Green Bay has given up the sixth fewest Fantasy points to opposing signal callers. Last year in the playoff matchup between these two teams, Ezekiel Elliott was running all over the Packers but Jason Garrett and Scott Linehan kept the ball in the air too much (38 pass attempts to 22 carries for Zeke). I think they learn from their mistake and the sneaky, under-lying problem with Dallas so far has been Dak’s inaccuracy and reluctance to push the ball downfield.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (QB7)
I’ve been the biggest proponent on the Deshaun Watson bandwagon the past couple of weeks, but now the hype has steered too far the other way. Kansas City has been the best team and arguably the best defense in the league this season. Watson has done his damage against two of the absolute worst defense in the league (New England and Tennessee). This will be a wake-up call for the rookie.
— Ryan Smith (@PFF_RyanSmith) October 5, 2017
Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans (RB11)
The Dolphins offense looked dreadful against the Saints last week. Now, they have a shortened and hectic week coming back from London. Ajayi is a non-starter until Miami gets their lives together. He is easily the best Sit of the Week 5 Start-Sit plays.
Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (RB12)
Miller finally had a break-out game last week against Tennessee. However, the majority of his production came through the air with five catches for 56 yards and a score. As already mentioned, the Chiefs have a good defense and they have given up the second fewest receiving yards to running backs so far and fewest Fantasy Points through the air to backs. It’s not like they haven’t played great receiving backs either (Patriots backfield, Darren Sproles, Chris Thompson). With a lack of receiving production, Miller is too touchdown-dependent for me this week.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills (RB18)
Seventeen carries for 29 yards does not strike confidence in a coach or Fantasy owner. They are forcing the ball to the rookie with 42 touches over the last two games, but he has delivered just 149 yards on those touches (3.5 yards per touch). I think his volume decreases a bit and even if it remains he is not doing enough with the opportunities.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (WR10)
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Allen has been hoarding targets (10 a game) from Philip Rivers and looks like his pre-injury self. He still is not finding the end zone with no scores in his last three games. It’s not going to get any easier as the Giants have given up just two touchdowns to receivers and will pressure Rivers all afternoon long.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (WR15)
Hilton had a bright spot a couple of weeks ago but followed it up with a dud against Seattle. Brissett only had 14 passes directed at all of his receivers so the opportunity just might not be there until Andrew Luck comes back, which could be soon. He is a quality buy-low candidate if he has another bad week.
Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (TE5)
Clay had a monster game last week which boosted his ranking this week. I need to see elite production consistently though before I’m moving him into the highest tier of tight ends. It will be tough against the Bengals, who have given up the fewest catches in the league to tight ends and less than 100 yards over four games.
Thanks for checking out the Week 5 Start-Sit predictions! For any other questions, please hit me up on Twitter, @Tomlin3 !
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