Last week was the best week yet for my Start or Sit predictions. They went 13-3 with eight Major Wins. Hopefully the Week 6 Start or Sit record continues the upswing. I was really just happy that I didn’t tell you to sit a 300-yard receiver again.
Either way, this week there are some target monsters that are being ranked too low. I am all about the PPR so my suggestions are geared toward that style of play. Therefore, guys who hoard targets are more valuable.
So for Week 6 start or sit options, I am looking at these target hoarders.
If a guy outperforms his ranking as a Start, then it’s a win. If he does so as a Sit, then it’s a loss. Vice versa for the under-performing. If someone outperforms/under-performs their ranking by 12 or more spots, it will be a Major Win. By these metrics, my Start or Sit predictions are 29-20-1 for the year, with 20 Major Wins.
Once again, for our Week 6 Start or Sit purposes I am going to focus on guys that are ranked outside of the Top 24 RB/WRs and Top 10 QB/TEs for my “starts,” and inside the Top 20 RB/WRs and Top 8 QB/TEs for my “sits.”
Week 6 Start or Sit
(All consensus rankings are based off the staff consensus PPR rankings for each position.)
Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos (QB16)
Rivers has gone three straight games with 321 yards or more, and has multiple touchdowns in three of his last four. As I wrote in my Week 6 Running Back Rankings Reaction, sometimes we over-do our rankings with matchup corrections. Rivers will still be worth a start.
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants (QB24)
The Ravens fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman this past week and promoted Marty Mornhinweg. I think Mornhinweg will utilize Flacco’s big arm and stretch the field a little more. With the Giants’ pass rushing ineffectiveness, there should be time for Flacco to get the ball away.
Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks (RB25)
The carry discrepancy last week between Coleman and Devonta Freeman has scared some off of the Coleman bandwagon. I think they were just being careful on his ankle and in the altitude. There will be plenty of targets going Coleman’s way against Seattle Sunday.
— Ali Tmak #1 NFL Fan (@NFL_FanTeam_Ldr) October 12, 2016
C.J. Spiller, RB, Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons (RB40)
Atlanta has given up the second most receptions to running backs this season, averaging nine a game. Spiller was already being worked into the Seattle offense as a passing down back. He had a bye week to become more integrated and I see him cracking the Top 30 at the position.
Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants vs. Baltimore Ravens (WR26)
Shepard was one of the few who let me down last week. I think this game will be a shootout though. Shepard will get more looks underneath and get a score.
Cole Beasley, WR, Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers (WR32)
Dez Bryant will likely be out again and Cole Beasley continues to be Dak Prescott’s favorite target. I do think Ezekiel Elliott still has a big game against the Packers’ top-ranked run defense. However, there should be plenty of points and catches to go around.
Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns (TE5)
Not much in the way of tight end starts this week, as I agree with most of the Top 10 guys. I will go with Delanie Walker to be the top overall guy though as the Browns get eviscerated by tight ends.
Carolina Panthers DST vs. New Orleans Saints (DST12)
People are discounting the Panthers defense after a couple of poor performances. However, New Orleans will turn the ball over so I would still start the Panthers this week.
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (QB9)
Kanas City has given up the fourth fewest passing yards so far this season and leads the league in interceptions. Marcus Peters will be able to slow down Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree enough to limit Carr’s productivity. I’ll take Rivers over Carr this week.
Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills (RB11)
With Colin Kaepernick starting, there will definitely be less touches for Hyde to begin with. Throw in the fact that I think their whole offense will struggle, and I want nothing to do with the 49ers.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys (RB15)
I said in my RB Rankings Reaction column that I think Eddie Lacy is being over-rated this week. He is not going to be 100% and Dallas has actually been effective against the run. Where the Packers will hurt the Cowboys defense is receptions out of the backfield. James Starks will outscore Lacy this week.
Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (WR16)
As I said in the Carr paragraph, I think the Raiders passing offense will struggle this weekend. Peters should be on Cooper mostly and slow him down. Expecting near Top 10 stats this week will be a stretch.
Why Alshon Jeffery owners should freak: His targets share has plummeted from 31.3 in 2015 to 17.3 this year. Also, No. 91 in RZ TGT%. Yikes.
— Brad Evans (@YahooNoise) October 11, 2016
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (WR20)
Since Brian Hoyer took over, Alshon’s stats have gone by the wayside. Hoyer is not force-feeding his monster target and is spreading the ball around. This has actually been good for their offense but bad for Jeffery owners.
- Not much in the way of tight end sits this week either. I would say if Tyler Eifert plays, I would still stay away from him.
That’s it for your Week 6 Start or Sit plays! If you have any lineup questions, shoot them to us on Twitter @Tomlin3 or @SoCalledFanEx.
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