We got positive feedback from last week’s format so the Week 8 stock report will follow a similar format to last week.
Instead of a team that has pretty much disappointed across the board like Jacksonville (other than Marqise Lee who needs to be on your radar immediately) however, we’ll focus on a team that has a much more mixed portfolio.
If the title of the Week 8 Fantasy Football stock report and picture to the right didn’t give it away, we are talking about the Green Bay Packers.
Said Packers would barely slip in as the second wild card if the playoffs started today. They would absolutely not have a home playoff game, making many of the Lambeau faithful uneasy.
As Fantasy owners, should we be uneasy too? Let’s start with a player whose ownership rates are rising.
Week 8 Stock Report
Davante Adams better hope he is never on trial. Because rendering a verdict on Adams can be slow and arduous.
Yes, I put him in my sleeper column earlier this preseason. And yes, I neglected to put him in my waiver wire piece earlier this week. Of course now I am unsure if that was the right move or the wrong move. Many members of the industry advocated grabbing him this week. Yet as I heard one say, “Wouldn’t it be just like Davante Adams to be the number one add this week and then go out this week and catch just two passes for 31 yards?”
Of course the evidence supports that exactly. Adams has risen to the 18th overall WR thanks to the 13-catch 132-yard day versus the Bears (who happen to be giving up the most Fantasy points to WRs) and the five touchdowns he has scored this year. But there’s some whine to go with that cheesehead. Look at the two games where he did not score a touchdown. He had three catches for 26 yards and two catches for 34 yards.
This is not something new. In each of Adams previous two seasons, he had at least eight games where he failed to reach even 75 yards or have even six catches. Furthermore, within that motley set, the two catches for 12 yards performance is a lot more prevalent than the four for 60.
If you are looking for that bye week “hail-mary” play, i.e. extremely high risk/high reward, Adams is an obvious “buy.” But do you know when those high reward weeks will happen? I don’t. However, I do know that I wouldn’t advise grabbing Adams if it means dropping a player with a higher floor, which is around 95% of rostered WRs in your typical league.
Of course one thing Adams is doing effectively is eating into the value of other Green Bay targets, in particular….
The Packers game last Thursday sounded the warning bell for Nelson owners. That’s assuming, of course, that they hadn’t already heard it. In a game where Aaron Rodgers had 56 pass attempts, only four were intended for Nelson as he caught one pass for nine yards. Let me say that again–One pass for nine yards, out of 56 throws. And that helped lead to tweets like below:
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 21, 2016
I’m sorry Nelson owners, it’s time to accept this is not his year. Don’t go and do something stupid like dropping Nelson. But if you can sell Nelson for anything even 75% near his 2014 value, do it.
Let’s talk about a player on the opposite end…
Has anyone been hotter? What was Montgomery’s ownership rate, say three weeks ago? 0%? 2%? It has now skyrocketed to 30% on ESPN and a whopping 57% on Yahoo. Furthermore, I am sure those ownership rates will rise by the time this article posts. What’s even more amazing about the discrepancy is that Montgomery only qualifies as a WR in Yahoo. In ESPN, he actually qualifies as both a WR and a RB! Any player who is good for double-digit points and qualifies at multiple positions automatically sees a huge boost in value. It gives you incredible roster flexibility, especially in those leagues that don’t have a flex position!
Check your particular league site, but even if he doesn’t have dual eligibility, Montgomery is someone I would absolutely buy at the right price. He has put together two weeks in a row of double-digit production with a likely third on the way. And that’s without scoring a touchdown. I expect that drought to end soon, especially given that the Packers opponent this week is the Falcons who have given up the most Fantasy points of any team!
Which also means there is another Green Bay wide receiver whose stock is on the rise….
I loved Cobb coming into this season and in the week 4 stock watch I advised you to ride out the slow start by Cobb.
All he has done in the last three weeks is score 10, 11, and 15 points. And that’s standard scoring. In PPR, he’s had an additional 27 points the last three weeks. I would tell you to buy Cobb, but that window has probably closed as I doubt his owner is willing to sell.
So as we know Green Bay is hoping either Eddie Lacy and or James Starks are suddenly healthy, Knile Davis picks up the playbook quickly, or that the “Ty Montgomery Solution” works. However, that still leaves us with at least one more player to discuss. Let me “double-check” my notes….
So what is wrong with Aaron Rodgers? Multiple theories have been proposed.
My favorite might be the Olivia Munn reason and I will say that I’d bet your workday performance would suffer if you were in danger of losing this…
I’m guessing my editors don’t let me use the picture of Ms. Munn in the blue/green lingerie that I wanted to, but that’s okay. Does she ever look bad? That Rodgers is a lucky man. Wait, where was I? Oh, now I remember. Anyway, to the more pressing matter, here is my take on what might be ailing Rodgers: Who cares?
With all the teeth-gnashing about Rodgers, you’d think the guy was having a horrendous year, hanging out in Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles country or even beyond high QB2 territory down in the Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill lowlands.
Yet, he’s not even close. He’s ninth in quarterback points overall and that’s with seven of the eight quarterbacks ahead of him (Drew Brees being the one exception) yet to have their bye. If we look at average weekly production, Rodgers shoots up to fifth overall. And let’s recall that at least a third of Rodgers’ games have been against some of the stingiest pass defenses in the league, including Minnesota who has allowed the least amount of Fantasy points.
If you own Rodgers, r-e-l-a-x. If you don’t, I would seriously consider buying him, especially if his owner thinks there is something wrong. One thing is for certain: there ain’t nothing wrong with his girlfriend!
Did the Week 8 stock report wet your appetite for more player info? Try My Playbook to figure out who is going to rise or fall next.
- Week 16 Stock Report: My Stock - December 23, 2018
- Week 15 Stock Report: Playoff Buys For Weeks 15 and 16 - December 15, 2018
- Week 14 Rookie Report: Who Is THIS Guy? - December 9, 2018